The Colorado economy is a lot like the final two weeks of the 2010 Colorado Rockies baseball season – very ugly.
On a positive note, the word on the street is that both are going to be better in the near term (despite at opening day loss in extra innings).
On March 25, the Colorado Office of Labor Market Information (LMI) announced that the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate had risen to 9.3% in February (the non-seasonally adjusted rate was 9.7%). By comparison, the national seasonally adjusted rate dropped further to 8.9%. Prior to January, the last time Colorado’s rate was higher than the U.S. was September 2005.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for the state’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are:
• Boulder 7.3%
• Fort Collins 7.9%
• Denver 9.4%
• Colorado Springs 10.1%
• Greeley 10.7%
• Grand Junction 11.0%
• Pueblo 11.1%.
These metros areas account for about 86% of the Colorado labor force. A majority of the state MSAs have unemployment at or above 9.4%.
There is more to the story…
Through February, year over year, seasonally adjusted data points to weak employment gains of 13,800 workers.
The areas of net job growth are:
• 11,400 Private education and health care
• 8,200 Tourism
• 8,200 Professional business services
• 2,200 Trade, transportation, and utilities
• 2,100 Oil, gas, and mineral extraction
• 800 Personal services
Employment in these 6 sectors is about 63% of all workers and 57.3% of total wages. The increase is about 32,900 workers.
The areas with continued declines are:
• -8,900 Construction
• -3,900 Financial Activities
• -3,200 Information
• -2,600 Government
• -500 Manufacturing
These 5 sectors have shown losses of 19,100.
It is good news that there is an increase in net jobs; however, there are 3 areas of concern:
• The weak level of net job growth is being driven by a reduction in job losses rather than a significant increase in job gains.
• Many of the jobs that are being added are not primary jobs.
• Many of the jobs being added pay lower wages and have less on an impact on the economy.
So, are we headed for continued improvement and another Roctober or lackluster economic growth and another October watching other teams play in the World Series? A few months from now we will have a much better idea where the economy and Rockies are headed.
©Copyright 2011 by CBER.