Oil and Gas Products and Services Archives - Colorado-based Business and Economic Research

Grand Junction and Greeley – Boom and Bust

March 31, 2014June 17, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

Energy is a mixed blessing (boom and bust) to local economies in Colorado, specifically Grand Junction and Greeley.

Since 1991, the Grand Junction MSA has added jobs at an annualized rate of 2.4% compared to 2.0% for the state.

Mesa County enjoyed strong growth in the first part of the 2000s because of the oil and gas industry. Unfortunately, it also experienced a bust in 2009.

The Grand Junction MSA employment has not returned to the peak level of 2008.

boom and bust

Since 1991, the Greeley MSA has added jobs at an annualized rate of 2.9% compared to 2.0% for the state.

Similar to Mesa County it experienced a boom as a result of exploration in the Niobrara gas fields. As well, the local economy benefitted from a Vestas turbine factory. While the county experienced a downturn in conjunction with the Great Recession, Greeley MSA employment returned to the peak level of 2008 in January 2012.

Despite the boom and bust cycles, both communities have experienced a stronger rate of growth over the past two decades than the state.

Gap between U.S. and Colorado Unemployment Widens

April 2, 2011May 31, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The Colorado economy is a lot like the final two weeks of the 2010 Colorado Rockies baseball season – very ugly.

On a positive note, the word on the street is that both are going to be better in the near term (despite at opening day loss in extra innings).

On March 25, the Colorado Office of Labor Market Information (LMI) announced that the statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate had risen to 9.3% in February (the non-seasonally adjusted rate was 9.7%). By comparison, the national seasonally adjusted rate dropped further to 8.9%. Prior to January, the last time Colorado’s rate was higher than the U.S. was September 2005.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for the state’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are:
• Boulder 7.3%
• Fort Collins 7.9%
• Denver 9.4%
• Colorado Springs 10.1%
• Greeley 10.7%
• Grand Junction 11.0%
• Pueblo 11.1%.
These metros areas account for about 86% of the Colorado labor force. A majority of the state MSAs have unemployment at or above 9.4%.

There is more to the story…

Through February, year over year, seasonally adjusted data points to weak employment gains of 13,800 workers.

The areas of net job growth are:
• 11,400 Private education and health care
• 8,200 Tourism
• 8,200 Professional business services
• 2,200 Trade, transportation, and utilities
• 2,100 Oil, gas, and mineral extraction
• 800 Personal services
Employment in these 6 sectors is about 63% of all workers and 57.3% of total wages. The increase is about 32,900 workers.

The areas with continued declines are:
• -8,900 Construction
• -3,900 Financial Activities
• -3,200 Information
• -2,600 Government
• -500 Manufacturing
These 5 sectors have shown losses of 19,100.

It is good news that there is an increase in net jobs; however, there are 3 areas of concern:
• The weak level of net job growth is being driven by a reduction in job losses rather than a significant increase in job gains.
• Many of the jobs that are being added are not primary jobs.
• Many of the jobs being added pay lower wages and have less on an impact on the economy.

So, are we headed for continued improvement and another Roctober or lackluster economic growth and another October watching other teams play in the World Series? A few months from now we will have a much better idea where the economy and Rockies are headed.

Michael Porter Highlights Colorado’s Strengths and Weaknesses in New Study

March 8, 2011May 31, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

Harvard Business Professor Michael Porter is widely recognized for his research in the competitiveness of cities, states, regions, and nations. His studies have emphasized clusters, specialized skills, infrastructure, and commerce as distinguishing factors that delineate the prosperity of these areas.

Most recently Porter measured the performance of clusters within each of the states at the National Governors Association Winter Meeting 2011 (February 26). At that meeting he talked about strategies that would allow the states to become more competitive in the future .

In addition, Porter prepared economic profiles for each of the 50 states. The 50-slide PowerPoint presentations, which were released at the NGA meeting, are formatted in a way that allows for easy comparisons between the states.

For example, it is to match Colorado’s biotech cluster against others in the nation. In 2008, Colorado was ranked 25th in biopharmaceuticals, with 2,032 employees and 11th in medical devices with 13,440 workers.

Each presentation begins with a performance snapshot with a position and trend ranking, by quintile, in five key areas. As well, Porter identified the “strong” clusters for each state.

Colorado’s overall prosperity rating was in the second quintile; however, it was rated in the 4th trend quintile. Essentially the state has strong output per capita; however, it is trending downward. This might suggest Colorado’s competitive position might be in jeopardy.

A second area of possible concern is labor mobilization (labor force/civilian population). On a positive note, Colorado is in the top ten; however, it is in the fourth trend quintile. Again, this is a strength that is trending downward.

There is better news for Productivity (average private wages) and Innovation (Patents per 10,000 workers). Colorado was ranked in the second quintile in both strategic categories. From a trend perspective it was also in the second quintile. These are areas where the state has maintained its strengths and remained competitive.

Finally, the state was ranked in the second quintile for cluster strength and in the top trend quintile. This points to increased strength, as defined by greater market share, in its “strong clusters”.

Porter identified Colorado’s top five clusters as:
• Business Services
• Distribution Services
• Entertainment
• Oil and Gas Products and Services
• Aerospace Vehicles and Defense.

The presentation highlights subtle strengths and weaknesses not mentioned in this brief overview. As such, it is recommended reading for any one interested in understanding the opportunities and challenges Colorado might face moving forward.