Forecast/Revisions, Monthly Economic Updates, Presentations, and Benchmark Revisions
2024 – Monthly Economic Updates, Revised Forecasts, Presentations, and Benchmark Revisions
For Information contact Gary Horvath at [email protected]
New! cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – November (October Data)
Over the past three months, Colorado seasonally adjusted month-over-month employment increased by about 30,000. Consumption and real GDP growth have remained solid. The accumulated effect of inflation is problematic, although the monthly rate is inching toward the target rate of 2.0%. Whether they were on the winning or losing side, most Americans are thankful the election (and commercials) are behind us.
Special! Industries Must Bring Their “A” Games to Deal with Population Changes
Over the next decade, U.S. Industries must bring their “A” games to deal with lower fertility rates and the aging of the Baby Boomers. Lower fertility rates are already affecting enrollments in schools, colleges, sports programs, and the size of the workforce.
Recent! cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – October (September Data)
The recent release of Colorado employment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the state was one of five to post significant gains for September, an increase in employment of 12,700. Private sector employment increased by 11,300, while government employment expanded by 1,400 jobs. The best part of the September story is that job growth was broad-based. Eight of the 11 supersectors posted gains.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – September (August Data)
The increase in August employment of 7,400 is good news but it is also a reflection of the volatility in monthly changes during 2024. Over the past year, the average monthly changes are about 3,600, but the change in employment has been between -2,300 and 10,700. The year-over-year change in August employment is only 41,000, which is well below pre-pandemic levels.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – August (July Data)
Nationally, 13 states had notably higher unemployment rates in July and only two states had increases in employment. The Colorado unemployment rate increased to 3.9% from 3.2% a year ago. In addition, there was a modest increase of 4,800 workers in July, well below the average of 5,500 per month for 2012 to 2019. The three government sectors added 2,300 workers compared to only 2,500 for the private sector. Fourteen of nineteen sectors that are tracked by cber.co recorded job increases in July. Job growth may be limited, but it is broad-based.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – July (June Data)
The recent release of Colorado employment data shows the Colorado economy continues to add jobs, albeit at an uneven and much slower pace than during the pandemic recovery. The year-over-year change for June 2024 was only 40,900. For June, the notable increases were small and limited to the Other Services (personal services), Wholesale Trade, and Government sectors. There is good news in the “Looking into the Future” category. Colorado received a significant EDA grant to develop a Quantum Tech Hub for the United States, https://www.elevatequantum.org/.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – June (May Data)
The May employment report showed that job growth in Colorado continues to be volatile. Through five months, about 46% of total changes, or 25,500 of the 55,400, are in the government sectors. In May, the leading industry sectors for job growth were Accommodation and Food Services (3,800), Professional and Technical Services (2,500), and Government (1,900). The unemployment rate increased to 3.8%, compared to a year ago when it was 3.1%.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – May (April Data)
Colorado employment started the year on a strong note; however, it tapered off in March and April. Job growth is not broad-based, with limited growth in the private sector. On a year-over-year basis, there are 51,800 more employees than a year ago. The change in employment is well below the annual average for the pre-pandemic period of 2012 to 2019. Persistent inflation and high interest rates are a challenge to consumers and businesses. The restrictive monetary policy is taking longer than expected to work its magic.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – April (March Data)
Colorado employment increased by about 5,300 in March, slightly below the average for 2012 to 2019, when average monthly employment was 5,500. While that is good news, it is disturbing that employment only increase by 2,700 in the private sector. About 2,600 jobs were created in the government sector, primarily in local government. As expected, professional, scientific, and technical services led the job growth. The sector has been a consistent driver of the economy for the past three years. There was also solid growth in financial activities, manufacturing, retail trade, and healthcare. Job losses were led by a reduction in construction, followed by private education, food and accommodation, wholesale trade, and information employment.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 – March (February Data)
The recent BLS benchmark revisions showed the Colorado labor market performed better than expected in 2023 and the momentum carried into the new year. After revisions, Colorado employment increased by 5,900 in January. Preliminary data for February shows an increase of 8,500. Most likely, the February data will be revised downward next month. The healthcare, local government, and construction sectors led the growth in employment; however, there are three areas of concern: wholesale trade, retail trade, and accommodation and food services. Check out the 2023 benchmark report below for industry information.
Benchmark! cber.co Review of Colorado Benchmark for 2023 and Economic Outlook and Trends for 2024
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a significant upward benchmark revision to the Colorado employment data for 2023. The preliminary 2023 wage and salary employment data showed that Colorado was one of the weaker-performing states for job creation. After the updates, Colorado is now one of the strongest-performing states. The leaders in 2023 job growth were professional, scientific, and technical services, followed by healthcare, and leisure and hospitality. The momentum from this job growth has carried forward into 2024; however a slowdown is on the horizon.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2024 Forecast and December Review
The Colorado forecast called for a recession in 2023. Fortunately, it has not happened – yet. Employment increased by 60,000, but slower job growth and possibly a recession are on tap for 2024. Colorado will continue to be challenged by many of the problems it faced in 2023. Housing permits (a leading indicator) will remain lower than usual, the office vacancy rate in Denver is around 30%, retail sales have slowed, inflation will remain higher than in other states, and companies will continue to struggle to find workers despite low unemployment rates.
2023 – Monthly Economic Updates, Revised Forecasts, Presentations, and Benchmark Revisions
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 December (November Data)
In November, Colorado employment declined by 700 jobs, and there was a downward revision to the October employment. The state is on track to add between 50,000 and 60,000 jobs in 2023 after the benchmark revisions are released in March. The impact of inflation outweighs the positive aspects of the economy for many Coloradans. The inflation rate is slowing; however, Coloradans are struggling because of its accumulated effect. In addition, higher interest rates are impacting many sectors.
Colorado Chamber of Commerce Business Survey
The Colorado Chamber of Commerce released a survey of Colorado business owners summarizing their thoughts and concerns about the Colorado business climate.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 November (October Data)
The most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed that Colorado employment increased by 1,500 in September. There was strong growth in professional, scientific, and technical services, and local government. Overall, there were fewer private sector growth jobs, which is a red flag. Despite the resilience of the U.S. and Colorado labor markets in 2023, employment is growing at a decelerating rate. About 60,000 jobs will be added in Colorado this year, about half the record total in 2022.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 October (September Data)
The most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics update reported that Colorado employment increased by 1,500 in September. There was strong growth in professional, scientific, and technical services; and local government. Overall, private sector growth for the month declined, which is a red flag. Despite the resilience of the U.S. and Colorado labor markets, employment is growing at a decelerating rate. About 60,000 jobs will be added in 2023.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 September (August Data)
BLS released their monthly employment update that indicated Colorado employment increased by about 5,600 in August. In addition, LMI released a report projecting that Colorado employment will likely increase significantly in the benchmark process for the 2023 CES employment data. The resiliency of the labor market reduces the chances of a recession; however, inflation, higher interest rates, workforce shortages, and an unfriendly regulatory environment are part of a long list of headwinds.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 August (July Data)
State employment increased by only 800 in July, and the June estimate was revised downward by 2,900. The Professional, Scientific, and Technical subsector added 2,300 jobs and government employment increased by 2,700 in July. Through the first seven months of 2023, about 13,900 government jobs have been added in Colorado, of which 11,100 are in local government. Government workers provide vital services for Coloradans; however, to have a vibrant economy, Colorado must have diversified growth across the private sectors. Through seven months, the Colorado employment increased by 17,900. Only 4,000 were added in the private sector.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 July (June Data)
The good news is that employment increased by 4,700 in June and May employment was revised upward by 4,700. Unfortunately, only 20,000 jobs have been added in the first half of the year and 10,400 were government jobs. Colorado is in uncharted territory it is not recognized as a leader for its economy.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 June (May Data)
What a difference a year makes! Last year Colorado was on the way to adding a record number of jobs – 114,000 or about 9,500 per month. In Q1 of 2022, the state added 600 jobs. On a brighter note, employment increased by 6,100 in April and 3,900 in May. On average, that is about 2,100. In 50 words or less – the Colorado economy is underperforming many other states and the U.S.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 May (April Data)
There is good news and bad news. The good news is that Colorado added 7,200 jobs in April. The bad news is that slower times and a recession are on the horizon.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 April (March Data)
The U.S. and Colorado labor markets had incredible momentum in 2022. Colorado employment increased by 111,400. While the U.S. labor market has remained strong, Colorado has lost its luster, as seasonally adjusted state employment declined by 2,400 in the first quarter. Colorado may be leading the country into slower economic times.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023 March (February Data)
From an employment standpoint, 2023 began on a sour note. There was a loss of 700 jobs in January, followed by solid growth in February. In February, employment in the government and food and accommodation services sectors increased by about 3,700. Employment for administrative services and other services grew by about 1,800. Growth was subpar in other sectors. In other words, employment increases were not broad-based.
cber.co Economic Outlook Benchmark 2022 and Trends 2023
The March economic review focuses primarily on employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) benchmark process. Data for the past two years (2021 and 2022) are revised. Colorado employment increased by 111,400, and the annual unemployment rate was revised downwards to an unbelievable 3.0%. No wonder people are having trouble finding workers!
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2023
After a year of record job growth in Colorado, the economy is slowly winding down and will enter a recession this year. Colorado will add 24,000 jobs in 2023 compared to 660,000 for the U.S. Real GDP for the U.S. will be 0.0% and slightly better for Colorado at 1.5%.
2022 – Monthly Economic Updates, Revised Forecasts, Presentations, and Benchmark Revisions
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends December (Based on November Data)
Colorado’s seasonally adjusted employment increased by 4,300 in November, and the unemployment rate was 3.5%. It will be a record year for job growth nationally and in Colorado, but the economy will look different in 2023.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends November (Based on October Data)
Colorado’s seasonally adjusted employment increased by 17,700 in October, and unemployment rose to 3.6%. Good news is always welcome, but this report is like a chunk of fool’s gold. Most of the data points to a recession in the months ahead. At the top of the list are high inflation, interest rate increases, slowing housing market, and layoffs at financial institutions and high-tech companies.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends October (Based on September Data)
Colorado added 5,600 jobs in September, compared to August, with the unemployment rate at 3.4%. Unfortunately, there are clouds on the horizon, namely inflation. Interest rate hikes are in place to combat the higher prices!
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends September (Based on August Data)
In 2022, Colorado employment has increased by about 11,000 jobs per month (annualized). As a point of reference, the pre-pandemic average monthly rate of growth was about 5,000 jobs. Job growth will be much, much slower for the remainder of 2022 through the first half of 2023. As the year has progressed, inflation has increased and broad-based declines in the rates of job growth, by sector, will occur in the months ahead.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends August (Based on July Data)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released better than expected news for July – and the jobs outlook for August should be positive also. HOWEVER, a slowdown or a shallow recession is likely for the end of 2022 or early 2023.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends July (Based on June Data)
Colorado and the U.S. continued to add more employees than expected in June. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points in its June and July FOMC meetings in an attempt to curb inflation. Will it be a soft landing or a crash?
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends June (Based on May Data)
Colorado and the U.S. continued to add more employees than expected in May. In June, there was a game changer. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points in an attempt to curb inflation. Despite the many strengths of the economy, their actions will either engineer a soft landing, with extended slow growth, or put the economy into a shallow recession. Fasten your seatbelts! It is going to be a bumpy ride.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends May (Based on April Data)
Colorado and the U.S. continued to add more employees than expected in April. In Colorado, the leading sectors for growth were PST (professional, scientific, and technical services), construction, retail, and AER (arts, entertainment, and recreation). The momentum in the labor market is evident in the increased employment and wages and the “low” number of unemployed. Also, there is above-average customer demand for goods, services, travel, and housing.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends April (Based on March Data)
In Q1 2022, Colorado and the U.S. added more employees than expected. Colorado’s seasonally adjusted employment increased by about 27,700. The leading sectors for growth are PST (professional, scientific, and technical services), retail, accommodation and food services, construction, and manufacturing. The 2022 Colorado forecast acknowledges the significant headwinds that could put the economy into a recession. Currently, the momentum of the labor market and economic activity exceeds the obstacles; however, slower growth is expected as the year progresses.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends Based on Benchmark Data
The economic review this month focuses exclusively on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) benchmark data, the revision of 2020 and 2021 data. Colorado employment was revised upwards, and the unemployment rate was revised downwards. Some of the changes by industry and MSA were noteworthy. In a nutshell, Colorado added 92,900 jobs in 2021. The Colorado Springs MSA was the only region with 2021 employment greater than pre-pandemic employment (2019). The state employment will increase by about 82,000 in 2022.
cber.co Economic Outlook and Trends 2022
The theme of the 2022 outlook is momentum and economic headwinds. From a forecasting standpoint, it is a challenge to understand the magnitude of both, and the factors that determine when they will change. Currently, the momentum is stronger than the headwinds (67% vs. 33%), but the headwinds are deterring growth. For the past two years, the impact of COVID-related policies created new and different variables and volatility to consider when preparing a forecast. The pandemic policies included extensive spending for various assistance programs. Some policies were politically motivated and divisive. Industries have evolved at an accelerated rate and remote working is more prevalent. There is a greater presence of technology and automation society and the economy – for better or worse.
2021 – Monthly Economic Updates, Revised Forecasts, Presentations, and Benchmark Revisions
cber.co Review of the Economy Through November 2021
Colorado employment increased by 138,700 during the first eleven months of 2021, or a monthly average of about 12,600. The average growth was about 5,000 per month in 2019. There is reason to feel optimistic about the economy, but there are concerns about the state and federal policies that will provide direction in 2022.
cber.co Review of the Economy Through October 2021
The U.S. added 5.8 million employees through the first ten months of 2021, or about 580,000 per month. By comparison, the monthly average was about 200,000 pre-pandemic. Colorado employment increased by 129,600 during the first ten months of 2021, or a monthly average of about 13,000. The average growth was about 5,000 per month in 2019. Confidence in the labor market is the primary driver of the U.S. and Colorado economies. At the same time, there are considerable headwinds. Currently, the momentum of the growth in the labor markets outweighs the headwinds.
cber.co Review of the Economy Through September 2021
In September, the U.S. economy added 194,000 jobs and Colorado added 5,100 jobs. In 2019 this level of increase in the labor market was solid, but average. In late 2021, both the U.S. and Colorado labor markets are crawling out of the abyss caused by policy related to the COVID-19 pandemic. By those standards the recent rate of growth is subpar. It is a matter of perspective whether the rate of growth is a trick or a treat.
cber.co Review of the Economy Through August 2021
Over the summer, there was a significant improvement in both the U.S. and Colorado job markets. In August, there was a major slowdown in job growth in both the U.S. and Colorado economies because of an increase in the Delta variant, inflation, and difficulties finding qualified workers. Colorado added 5,600 jobs during the month.
cber.co Review of the Economy Through July 2021
Through the first seven months of 2021, Colorado has added 106,900 jobs. This data is supported by the congestion on the streets, worker shortages, and inflation. Passenger counts at DIA continue to increase and will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Oil production is on the rise again and the state’s YTD retail sales are greater than 2019 and 2020 levels. Growth will continue in Q3 and Q4, but at a slower pace.
cber.co What’s on the Horizon – Review of the Economy Through June 2021
The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Colorado is on a roll. State employment increased by 10,800 in June. Total employment for the first six months of the year increased by about 92,900. The growth through six months was uneven across geographies, industries, and occupations. Colorado is 99,400 jobs below the pre-pandemic total.
cber.co Review of Colorado Economy Through May 2021
What a difference a year makes! The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Colorado added 17,700 jobs in May. Wage and salary employment is 96.1% of the February 2000 total. Unemployment in Colorado dropped to 6.2%, but it remains above the U.S. level of 5.8%. Even with the improvement, many companies are struggling to find workers.
cber.co Review of Colorado Economy Through April 2021
Wow! Colorado added 17,000 jobs in April. The recovery is uneven, but most indicators point to strong economic activity and employment growth through the end of the year. The number of passengers at DIA is gradually increasing, and the leisure and hospitality industry is adding jobs.
cber.co Review of Colorado Economy Through March 2021
The Colorado labor market has performed better than expected in Q1. As a result the employment forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards. Colorado is on tap to add 84,000 jobs in 2021.
cber.co Race by County from 2010 to 2019
The no-frills spreadsheet shows how the population and concentration of races in Colorado has changed in Colorado.
cber.co Population by County from 2000 to 2020 for Colorado
This no-frills spreadsheet shows how the population of Colorado’s 64 counties has changed over the past two decades.
cber.co Review of Colorado Economy Through February 2021
After a dismal Q4 2020, the Colorado economy is off to a strong start in 2021 with consecutive months of job growth. In addition, Colorado’s real GDP for 2020 was stronger than expected. It changed by -1.5% compared to -3.5% for the U.S. Good things are happening in Colorado, but there is better news in many other states.
cber.co Review of Colorado Benchmark Employment Data for 2020
The recent release of the 2020 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)benchmark data showed that Colorado lost more than 145,000 jobs last year. Most likely the state will return to its 2019 employment level by 2023. The strongest growth in 2021 is expected in Q2 and Q3.
cber.co Economic Outlook for 2021 – United States and Colorado
After a year of chaos (2020), a new year has arrived. The year closed on a down note as employment and real GDP slowed in Q4. Unfortunately, that trend will continue in 2021. As the vaccine takes hold, the economy will pick up. Colorado will add 45,000 jobs in 2021. The state will return to its 2019 employment level in 2022 or 2023.
2020 Monthly Economic Updates, Revised Forecasts, Presentations, and Benchmark Revisions
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through November 2020
After six strong months of job growth, the Colorado economy stalled. The state lost 6,900 jobs in November. The outlook is for tough times through February followed by strong job growth in the second half of 2020.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through October 2020
Colorado continues to recover from the C-19 lockdown. Six sectors currently have greater employment than their December 2019 value. Colorado October employment for 2020 was 95.5% of December 2019 employment.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through September 2020
Slowly, but surely, the economy continues to add jobs. U.S. September employment was 93.4% of December 2019 and Colorado September employment was 94.7% of December employment. The federal government; private education; professional, scientific, and technical services; and manufacturing sectors all have surpassed their December 2019 values.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through August 2020
The Colorado economy continues to move forward in the recovery from the lockdown associated with the C-19 pandemic. Colorado employment for July was 94.2% of December 2019 employment.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through July 2020
The Colorado economy took another step, albeit a small one, in the recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown with the addition of 6,200 jobs in June. Colorado employment for July was 92.6% of December 2019 employment. The state is ranked in the middle of the pack in the recovery.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through June 2020
The Colorado economy took another step in the recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown with the addition of 55,000 jobs in June. Over 90% of the employment gains were in retail and leisure and hospitality. This is impressive growth, although it is much smaller than expected given the strength of U.S. job growth reported earlier in the month.
cber.co Review of U.S. and Colorado Employment Through May 2020 with Implications for the Tennis Industry.
Anecdotal evidence suggests the tennis industry opened gradually in April, May, and June. This chartbook, based on the Colorado Economic Review for June, discusses how the re-opening of the economy might impact the tennis industry.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through April 2020
The data is in and it is ugly. During the months of March and April, Colorado employment has declined by 340,000 wage and salary workers. That is more than the number of wage and salary employees in Alaska.
cber.co Review of U.S. and Colorado Employment Through April 2020 with Implications for the Tennis Industry.
The tennis industry is particularly vulnerable given its stagnancy over the past decade. This chartbook looks at implications of the lockdown on the industry.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through March 2020
The recent release of BLS data shows Colorado employment declined by 3,900 workers in March. Based on other employment data, this is likely understated. In the short-term it will get worse before it gets better.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Through February 2020
The data is sparse, but we are beginning to see the significance of the current economic crisis. The Conference Board has projected three quarters of negative growth followed by a healthy rebound in Q4. Over 10 million people have filed initial unemployment claims nationally in the past three weeks. To put that in perspective, about 11 million initial claims were filed in 2019. This too will pass.
cber.co Benchmark Review of 2019 (March 2020)
The first report of the year is a doozy! The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released its benchmark revisions for 2019. This short analysis reviews those revisions to establish a point of reference for Colorado employment prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, there is a short discussion about the outlook for key sectors during the remainder of the year.
Monthly Reviews and Economic Updates – 2019
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through November 2019
Colorado continues to enjoy manageable population growth, employment gains have increased as the year has progressed, and the state is on track to add 52,900 workers in 2019. Looking forward, there are some headwinds that are unique to Colorado; however, the current economic momentum should carry into the first quarter of 2020.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through October 2019
Job growth in the first half of 2019 was at its weakest level since the first half of 2011. After a turnaround in July, the state is on track to add 52,300 jobs in 2019. In addition, BEA recently announced that Q2 real GDP growth for Colorado was 2.9%, compared to 2.0% for the United States. Colorado’s growth was driven by the following sectors: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; Extractive Industries; Real Estate, and Government.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through September 2019
The most current data shows the U.S. and Colorado economies are on solid footing, but most economists now agree the economy is growing at a slower rate. Colorado is on track to add 52,400 jobs in 2019, an increase of 1.9%. The current unemployment rate is painfully low at 2.7% and businesses are struggling to find qualified workers.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through August 2019
Colorado is on track to add at least 52,400 jobs in 2019. The state’s unemployment rate fell to 2.8% in August. DIA continues to see a record number of passengers, tourism is on track for another strong year, crude oil production is near record levels, and housing appreciation in the Denver area is more modest than in the past.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through July 2019 The state is on track for another year of solid job and real GDP growth. In addition, oil production is near record levels, DIA is on track for another record year of passenger traffic, data was released that showed that 2018 was another record year for tourism, and the number of venture capital deals shows that investors are interested in Colorado.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through June 2019
Recently released reports show there is solid employment and real GDP growth in Colorado. Both employment and real GDP are growing at a faster rate in Colorado than the U.S.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through May 2019
The most recent release of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that Colorado is on track to add 49,000 jobs in 2019. Colorado’s unemployment rate dropped from 3.2% to 3.1%. The FOMC gave the U.S. economy a vote of confidence – kind of. They are ready to cut rates if they sense that headwinds are too great.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through April 2019
The latest release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows Colorado has an unemployment rate of 3.4%, compared to 3.6% for the U.S. At the current rate the state is on track to add 49,400 jobs in 2019.
Q1 2019 Economic Trends for Colorado – The best economic news was delivered by the BEA – U.S. real GDP for Q1 increased at a rate of 3.2%. In addition, Colorado is on track to add 48,900 jobs this year. This is lower than expected, but, initial and continuing unemployment claims remain low, housing prices are increasing at a decreasing rate, and the state will likely set another record for the number of barrels of oil produced.
Final Review and Outlook for 2019 Colorado Economy – Over the past two weeks BLS has released data showing that 2018 Colorado job growth was weaker than anticipated, the 2018 unemployment rate was adjusted higher, and wage growth for 2018 was stronger than expected. The state outlook for 2019 is still upbeat.
Final Review and Outlook for 2019 U.S. Economy – In December when economists were preparing their annual forecasts, the equity markets were in turmoil and many forecasts predicted doom and gloom for 2019. This month’s economic analysis takes a deeper dive into the U.S. economy and provides additional support for the earlier forecast that the U.S. economy entered 2019 with enough momentum to ensure solid growth through the first half of the year and maybe longer.
Monthly Reviews and Economic Updates – 2018
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through October 2018
From an economic standpoint, there is a lot to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. This is the ninth consecutive November that the U.S. has posted positive year-over-year job gains since the Great Recession. The state is on track to add 72,600 jobs in 2018.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through September 2018
Colorado’s job growth continues to be diversified, manageable, and much stronger than anticipated at this time last year. The state’s growth is constrained by an unemployment rate that has been at or below 3.1% for 24 months. Despite that challenge, Colorado is on track to add 73,700 jobs this year.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through August 2018
2018 summer employment gains were the 8th best in the 78 years that data has been recorded. The strongest two years of year-over-year employment growth were 1978 and 1972 with job increases greater than 90,000 both years. Average employment for the 2018 summer was 79,100 greater than 2017. As a result of the strong summer, Colorado is on track to add 72,800 jobs in 2018.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through July 2018
Colorado wage growth for June and July was more than 81,000 greater than the same period in 2017. The state is on track to add 72,600 jobs in 2018. In June, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, compared to 3.9% for the U.S.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through June 2018
Colorado wage growth is partially responsible for the increase in job growth in 2018. Private sector wage growth was up 4.4% in 2017 compared to 2016. Through the first six months of 2018, employment for Colorado is 70,100 greater than the same period in 2017. In June, the state unemployment rate fell to 2.7%, compared to 4.0% for the U.S.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through May 2018
Through the first five months of 2018, employment for Colorado is 68,700 greater than the same period in 2017. In May, the state unemployment rate fell to 2.8%, a point below the national rate. Stronger growth is expected in the second half of the year.
cber.co Review of Colorado Employment Data Through April 2018
Through the first four months of 2018, employment for Colorado is 67,900 greater than the same period in 2017. Colorado unemployment dropped to 2.9%, a point below the national rate.
cber.co Review of Q1 2018 Colorado Employment Data
The U.S. and Colorado economies are on cruise control! Q1 2018 employment for Colorado is 66,900 great than Q1 2017. Colorado unemployment remains at 3.0%.
cber.co Review of 2018 Colorado Employment Data Through February 2018
Through the first two months of 2018, average Colorado job growth is almost 67,000 greater than the same period in 2016. The largest sectors (healthcare, construction, financial activities, PST, and AFS) are growing at a faster rate and contributing a majority of the jobs.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Benchmark Revisions
BLS announced that Colorado job growth for 2016 was revised upwards to 60,700 and job growth for 2017 was bumped up to 52,600. The number of Colorado jobs increased by 2.4% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017.
Thought Provoking Information
Precious Metals Dr. James Burnell, retiree from the Colorado Geological Survey, forwarded an article, Embarrassment of Riches: Reversing U.S. Minerals Import Dependency, that discusses the importance of precious metals. We rely on them every day in the devices that make our lives safer and more convenient.
Amazon RFP for second headquarters – Check out the RFP, published by the New York Times for the second Amazon Headquarters by clicking here.
Monthly Reviews and Economic Updates – 2017
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through November 2017
With a month left in the year, Colorado is on track to add 49,100 jobs this year; however, that may be updated by as much as 8,000 workers in the March 18 Benchmark revisions.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through October 2017
Colorado is on track to add 48,700 jobs this year; however, that may be understated. Q2 Real GDP was reported to be 3.8%.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through September 2017
The state is plagued with a 2.5% unemployment rate that is constraining job growth. Colorado is on track to add 49,600 jobs this year; however, that may be understated by 8,000 to 8,400 jobs.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through August 2017
The report for the August jobs data reads almost like the report for the July. The state is plagued with a 2.4% unemployment rate that is constraining job growth. Colorado is on track to add 50,700 jobs this year. On the street activity is more exciting! It is official – Ikea has formally delivered their building plans to the city of Broomfield. Colorado is one of 10 finalists in the Hyperloop competition and the state is courting Amazon. Exciting times!
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through July 2017
Colorado’s job growth continues to be diversified and manageable. By Colorado standards it is disappointing in some areas. Overall job and real GDP growth is lackluster because the state is plagued with a 2.4% unemployment rate. Colorado is on track to add 50,700 jobs this year.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through June 2017
BLS data shows that Colorado’s economy is on track to add 51,400 jobs this year. Job and real GDP growth is constrained by the 2.3% unemployment rate and the lack of qualified workers.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through May 2017
BLS data shows that Colorado’s economy is on track to add 50,600 jobs this year, although activity on the streets suggests that data is understated. Companies of all sizes are adding jobs; however, the 50 to 499 employment category has about 38% of total employees, 4%of total establishments and almost 40% of total wages. Over a seven year period, about 46% of the total jobs were added in this category.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through April 2017
BLS announced that Colorado’s unemployment rate plummeted to 2.3%, a sign that Colorado’s economy is currently operating in an inefficient mode because businesses in most industries are having difficulty finding qualified workers for key positions. The economy is on track to add 47,900 jobs this year, although activity on the streets suggests that data is understated. On another note, BEA released Colorado real GDP data by industry. It shows that Colorado’s real GDP for 2016 grew at a faster pace than the U.S., 2.0% vs. 1.6%.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through March 2017
BLS recently released data showing that Colorado is on track to add 50,000 jobs in 2017. Jobs are being added at a rate of 2.0%. This level of growth is modest and below expectations of most economists.
cber.co Review of 2017 Colorado Employment Data Through February 2017
Through the first two months of 2017, Colorado employment is 48,200 greater than the same period last year. The Strong Growth, Solid Growth, and Volatile Growth categories of industries are all adding jobs at a declining rate. This is thought to be a sign of the normal “ups and downs” of a business cycle rather than an indication we are headed into a downturn.
cber.co Review of Revised 2016 Colorado Employment Data and 2017 Employment Forecast
BLS released their benchmark data for 2016 and 2015. The good news is that employment for 2015 was bumped up to 77,000. Throughout 2016, BLS reported that the state would add about 70,000 jobs. The benchmark revisions bumped the total down to 56,400.
cber.co Colorado Economic Update Focus on Manufacturing
This presentation was made to the Colorado Advanced Manufacturing Alliance. It touches on the challenges facing the manufacturing sector and the importance of the sector to the state economy.
cber.co Colorado 2017 Economic Forecast – Larimer County Workforce
This presentation was made to the Larimer County Workforce to address the challenges many Colorado companies are facing, “Where is the talent?” In addition it highlighted the strengths of Northern Colorado and trends in the state economy.
Monthly Reviews and Economic Updates 2016
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through November 2016
The BLS recently reported that Colorado unemployment dropped from 3.5% to 3.2%. Average employment through 11 months of 2016 is 68,600 greater than the same period in 2015.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through October 2016
The BLS data shows the state is on track to add 69,400 workers this year. Preliminary estimates show the Colorado economy has lost some of its momentum. It is likely there will be a downward revision with the March 2017 benchmark revision.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through September 2016 The U.S. is on track to add 2.5 million jobs this year with real GDP growth in the 1.5% to 2.0% range. Colorado is on track to add 70,000 jobs this year, with real GDP growth in the 3.0% to 3.5% range.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through August 2016 Colorado is on track to add 69,800 jobs in 2016. In addition, recently released data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the 2015 Real GDP for most Colorado MSAs increased at a rate stronger than the U.S.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through July 2016 Over the summer economists have talked about a slowing global economy, secular stagnation, and subpar real GDP growth. Meanwhile the U.S. is on track to add 2.6 million jobs and the state is positioned to add 69,900 jobs in 2016.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through First Half of 2016 Colorado continues to enjoy consistent and diversified job growth. The latest BLS report shows the state is on track to add 68,200 jobs in 2016.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through May 2016 The best thing the Colorado economy has going for it now is momentum. The latest BLS report shows the state is on track to add 67,900 jobs in 2016. Current unemployment is 3.4%.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through April 2016 The Colorado economic is on automatic pilot. The latest BLS report shows the state is on track to add 69,500 jobs in 2016. Current unemployment is 3.1%.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through Q1 2016 BLS released its third data update in a month on April 15th. The most recent release showed the state is on track to add 67,000 jobs in 2016.
cber.co Colorado Economic Review Through February 2016 March was a busy month for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Earlier, BLS reported that Colorado added 76,300 jobs in 2015. The most recent release showed the state is on track to add 67,000 jobs in 2016.
cber.co Review of Revised 2015 Colorado Employment Data The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that Colorado job growth for 2014 was revised upwards to 83,000 and 2015 job growth was bumped up to 76,300. The upward benchmark revisions made 2014 the third strongest year of absolute job growth while 2015 was the ninth strongest year.
Projected Revisions to 2015 Wage and Salary Data
In addition, click here for the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment projected updates for Q4 2014 and the first four months of 2015.
Click here to access the updates that were released on August 26. The updates suggest the current Wage and Salary employment data is understating the job growth in the state.
Monthly Reviews and Economic Updates during 2015
cber.co Employment Review First Eleven Months of 2015. BLS recently reported the Colorado unemployment rate for November dropped to 3.6%, down from 3.8% in October and 4.3% a year ago. In addition the current data shows that Colorado is on track to add 58,000 jobs in 2015.
cber.co Employment Review First Ten Months of 2015. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Colorado job growth is solid, continues to increase at a decreasing rate. Average Colorado employment through October is 57,900 greater than the same period last year. The outlook remains positive, but there are areas of concern. Check out the update for details.
cber.co Employment Review First Three Quarters of 2015. Same story, different month. Colorado job growth is solid, but increasing at a decreasing rate. Average Colorado employment through September is 61,000 greater than the same period last year. Check out this update for the latest information on GDP growth by MSA.
cber.co Employment Review First Eight Months of 2015. Average Colorado employment through August is 63,400 greater than the same period last year. Good news, that number is likely to be revised upwards in the March 2016 benchmark updates!
cber.co Employment Review First Seven Months of 2015. For the past week the Colorado air has been filled with smoke. To make matters worse, there has been a streak of bad economic news. The good news is that even during the best of times there are economic concerns; the fundamentals of the U.S. and Colorado economies are solid; and the good sky is not falling! After seven months average Colorado employment is 65,900 greater than the same period last year and that number is likely to be revised upwards.
cber.co Employment Review First Six Months of 2015 Colorado is on track to add at least 68,600 jobs in 2015. In addition data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that state’s Real GDP expanded by 4.7% in 2014, compared to 2.2% for the U.S.
cber.co Employment Review First Five Months of 2015 Average Colorado employment for the first five months of 2015 is 69,800 greater than the same period last year. For this period employment has grown at a rate of 2.8%. As has been the case in the past, the sectors with the top job growth are: Health Care; Accommodations and Food Services (part of the Tourism Industry); Construction; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; and Manufacturing. These sectors accounted for almost 71% of total job growth.
cber.co Employment Review First Four Months of 2015 Colorado added 71,400 workers during four months of the year compared to the same period last year. Employment grew at a rate of 3.0%. Department of Labor announces upward revisions.
cber.co Employment Review Q1 2015 Colorado added 74,800 workers during Q1 compared to the same period last year. Employment grew at a rate of 3.1%.
cber.co January/February Employment Review March 2015 The BLS released jobs data for February showing the state is adding jobs at a rate similar to 2014.
cber.co 2014 Employment Review March 2015 The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its benchmark update for 2014. The revisions showed the BLS models understated the actual job growth in the state. In 2014 Colorado added 78,900 jobs, led by the Construction; Health Care; and Accommodations and Food Services Sectors.
cber.co Preliminary Estimate of Colorado Job Growth in 2014. The Colorado Department of Labor and Employment released the November jobs data stating the state lost 2,500 jobs in in November. DON’T BELIEVE IT! The state is on track to add 73,000 jobs in 2014.
cber.co 2014 Review of Colorado Economy – Analysis for First Ten Months of 2014. The Colorado Department of Labor and Employment delivered a jobs report that was somewhat of a turkey. It showed that the number of jobs added were weaker than anticipated for three of the past four months. Time will tell whether that represents a slowdown or a glitch in the model used to produce the labor estimates.
cber.co 2014 Review of Colorado Economy – Analysis for First Nine Months of 2014. Last month the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment reported that the state lost 700 jobs during the month of August. NOT! The state is on track to add 65,200 jobs in 2014, prior to benchmarking and annual revisions. At that point, the number of jobs added this year will be revised upward to exceed 70,000.
cber.co 2014 Review of Colorado Economy – Analysis for First Eight Months of 2014. It was reported by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment that the state lost 700 jobs during the month of August. This “news” is not supported by other data or activity on the street. The foundation of the Colorado economy continues to be solidI
cber.co 2014 Review of Colorado Economy – Analysis for First Seven Months of 2014. Through seven months, the state has added 67,300 jobs compared to the same time a year ago.
cber.co 2014 Review of Colorado Economy – Analysis for First Six Months of 2014. Job growth continues to be solid through the first half of the year. CES data shows the state has added 67,000 jobs compared to a year ago.
cber.co 2014 Review of Colorado Economy – Analysis for First Five Months of 2014. CES data shows the state has added 67,100 jobs compared to a year ago. The QCEW data from the BLS indicates the number of jobs added in 2014 could exceed 74,000.
cber.co Review of Colorado Economy – Analysis of Q1 2014 Employment Data! Nationally, the economy struggled during Q1. On a positive note, there are signs of stronger growth in Q2, followed by solid growth through the end of the year. As a result, Colorado will add at least 71,000 jobs in 2014.
Review of prior year with March benchmark data
cber.co 2013 Employment Review. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released their update of employment for 2013 and it showed the state added jobs at a much greater rate than anticipated. Colorado added 68,100 jobs in last year.
cber.co 2012 Employment Review. The BLS benchmarked data for 2012 shows that Colorado added 52,100 employees in 2012.
Monthly employment reviews and economic updates for 2013.
cber.co Employment Review – First Ten Months of 2013. Colorado continues to add jobs, although there is a significant slowdown in the rate of growth. The state is on track to add 55,000 jobs this year.
cber.co Employment Review – First Eight Months of 2013. Colorado continues to add jobs on a steady basis, although the rate of growth began to decline in Q2. On average 58,500 jobs have been added compared to the same period last year.
cber.co Employment Review – First Seven Months of 2013. Despite ongoing concerns about the lack of primary job creation, Colorado job growth remains solid.
cber.co Employment Review – First Half of 2013. Same story as last month. Solid, but growth at a slower rate. Concerns about the lack of primary jobs being added.
cber.co Employment Review – First Five Months of 2013.
cber.co Employment Review – First Four Months of 2013.
cber.co Employment Review – Through Q1 2013.
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