Earlier this morning, the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment issued a press release stating that Colorado lost 700 jobs in August compared to the previous month. The data series was adjusted.
The data does not reflect what is happening on the street. It fails to echo the confidence that consumers have in the national and state economy.
• The ISM indices for manufacturing and the services sector are positive.
• While some of the construction data is flat or down, NAHB data is up, suggesting better data in the months ahead.
• On 9/26, the Q2 GDP will be revised. The third estimate is expected to be revised upwards to 4.8ish.
Locally, there is even stronger reason to be optimistic.
• The state made it through the summer without any major fires, floods, or other natural disasters (knock on wood).
• The number of business establishments continues to increase. The leaders in relative growth are Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Boulder.
• Universities and K-12 are better funded than a year ago.
• Retail sales tax collections up, as evidenced by increased budgets for the state and many municipalities.
• The State General Fund has collected more revenue, a reflection of improved business and personal income taxes.
• The Colorado Tourism Office has reported a record level of tourism visitation and spending for the summer months.
• Developers are optimistic – believably optimistic.
From a methodological perspective, there are multiple reasons why the data will likely be revised upwards next month and later in March 2015. While it is possible the data turned down slightly in August, it is difficult to believe there were seasonally adjusted job losses in August.
