On November 7th, Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) released America’s Most Competitive Metros since 2010, a blogpost/mini-report showing which metros are becoming more competitive. Denver was ranked 25th and Colorado Springs was ranked 64th in the list of 100 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) evaluated. Pueblo, Fort Collins, Boulder, Greeley and Grand Junction were not included in the analysis.
EMSI used shift share analysis to make this comparison for the period 2010 to 2012 (Q3 2012 complete data). This method of analysis decomposes the change in employment into four categories: the national growth effect, the industrial effect, expected change, and the change in an industry due to local unique competitive advantages within the region. The latter is the focus of the EMSI blog post. This competitive change is then expressed as a percentage of total employment.
Of the 100 top MSAs evaluated, the relative change in competitive jobs ranged from -3.9% to 3.5%. Forty-eight MSAs posted increases over this period, while 52 recorded negative changes.
There were 28 MSAs with employment greater than 1 million workers. Only 3 of these cities were in the top 10 in terms of relative percentage growth; however, 16 of 28 had positive growth and only 32 of the 72 cities with employment less than 1 million workers had positive growth.
The MSAs at the top of the list were San Jose, Austin, Bakersfield, Provo, and Houston. The top 48 MSAs, or those with a positive competitive effect are listed below (Those with negative growth are in a separate table).
Only 12 of the cities with more than 1 million workers were in the MSAs that posted competitive declines, while 40 of the 72 MSAs with less than 1 million workers recorded decreases. The MSAs at the bottom of the list were Modesto, Lakeland-Winter Haven, Palm Bay, Albuquerque, and Augusta. A few comments about the position of the two Colorado MSAs follows this table.
The good news from the EMSI report is that Colorado’s hub of commerce, the Denver MSA, is adding “competitive” jobs. If the other MSAs had been included, Boulder and Fort Collins would probably join Denver as gainers and Pueblo, Greeley, and Grand Junction would join Colorado Springs on the down side. Clearly the trickledown effect from Denver to other parts of the state is minimal or non-existent.
Colorado’s recovery has been steady but, it has occurred at a pace slower than desired. While Colorado has been adding jobs, a disproportionate amount of those jobs are in the public sector. While those jobs may be necessary and justified, they will not provide Colorado with a competitive advantage in the months ahead.
Colorado needs to add more primary jobs and jobs need to be added outside the metro area. Here’s to better times for Colorado and the U.S!
©Copyright 2011 by CBER.