Tag: Job Growth

Slow Gross Job Growth – a Cause of the Weak Recovery in Colorado

horvath

Colorado prides itself on its entrepreneurial spirit, yet, it took about 4 1/2 years to recover from the 2001 recession and it will take longer to rebound from the Great Recession.  In short, the primary reason the state experienced net job growth was a decline in gross job losses and weak gross job gains.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the Business Employment Dynamics data (BDM), a data set that provides gross job added because of expansion and openings and gross jobs lost because of contractions and closures. This differs from the wage and salary data series that reports only total net jobs.

The data shows that since 2000, Gross Job Gains and Gross Job Losses have been volatile and both have trended downward.

Since 1993, between 18.1% and 24.7% of the Gross Jobs Added are from openings while between 75.3% and 81.9% are from expansions. For that same period, the range of Gross Job Lost from contractions is 77.0% to 86.4% and the range for closings has been 13.6% to 23.0%. In the short-term, Gross Losses are moving downward and Gross Additions are headed upwards.

For more information go to the report, “Why Weaker Job Growth?” on cber.co. It can be found in the Special Reports Section.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

CBER Colorado Economic Forecast 2013 – Growth Rate Similar in Year Ahead

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CBER recently released its forecast of the Colorado economy and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, 2013 will look a lot like 2012 and 2011.

  • U.S. Real GDP will be in the range of 1.9% to 2.3%
  • The U.S. will add 1.9 to 2.1 million workers
  • Colorado will account for 2.5% of U.S. jobs added
  • Colorado will add 45,000 to 55,000 workers.

Since the end of the recession, Colorado employment has had five false starts. Despite serious national and international headwinds, the state may finally have enough momentum to begin showing solid, sustained job growth beginning in the second half of 2013.

Strong Growth Category ( About 32% of total employment)

This category has consistently posted strong growth over the past two decades. In 2013, job growth will be 2.9% to 3.1%, slightly below the category’s annualized growth rate of 3.25% for 1990 to 2011.

Limited Growth Sectors (about  40% of total employment)

This category has consistently posted solid growth over the past two decades (Annualized rates for the sectors range between 1.1% to 2.2%.) In 2013, job growth will be 1.4% to 1.6%, slightly below the category’s annualized growth rate of 1.85% for 1990 to 2011.

Volatile Growth Sectors (28% of total employment)

This category has been inconsistent in its growth rates over the past two decades. It is expected to add jobs at a rate of 2.1% to 2.3%. This is above the category’s annualized growth rate of about 0.79% for 1990 to 2011. This variance from the average is a reflection of the category’s  volatility.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Data Not Clear About Whether Colorado is Outperforming the Nation in the Recovery

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The wage and salary data produced by BLS shows that Colorado has recovered about 67% of jobs lost as a result of the Great Recession compared to 51% for the U.S.

The LAUS data also produced by BLS tells a much different story.

The Colorado LAUS Data shows that between the 2008 peak and the 2010 trough, Colorado lost more than 135,000 jobs. As of October 2012, the state had recovered only 26% of these jobs.

From October 2011 to October 2012, the LAUS data reports that the number of employed in Colorado has increased by 4,700. Over the past year, state CES employment has increased by 41,600 (NSA) or 42,100 (SA) and those numbers are likely to be revised upwards. For the numbers to reconcile, this disparity suggests that at least 37,000 contract workers, sole proprietors, or family businesses went out of business over the past year.

The U.S. LAUS Data shows that between the 2008 peak and the 2010 trough, the U.S. lost more than seven million jobs. It has since recovered 67% of these jobs.

From October 2011 to October 2012, the LAUS data reports that the number of employed in the U.S. has increased by 3.1 million. Over the past year, U.S. CES employment has increased by more than 1.922 million (NSA) or 1.949 million (SA). The differences between these numbers can be reconciled, as the difference can most likely be attributed to the growth of contract workers, family businesses, or sole proprietors.

The LAUS data shows that Colorado has recovered 26% of the jobs lost during the Great Recession compared to 67% for the U.S.

These results raise yet another red flag about the LAUS data published by the Colorado LMI, CDLE, and BLS. Click on the following dates for a review of the downturns for the 1980s and the late 2000s.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

“Don’t Get Excited” About the Addition of 7,000 Colorado Jobs in September

horvath

In its latest state-level jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that Colorado gained 7,000 jobs in September, on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis. This inordinate gain comes on the heels of a loss of 100 jobs in August.

The quirky nature of the data prompted Colorado’s chief labor economist to report to the Denver Post that the state shouldn’t get “too excited about the addition of 7,000 jobs in September”. It is unlikely that this wide swing in jobs is an accurate measure of what is happening on the streets. Rather, it is the result of adjustment factors that don’t fully capture “seasonal” changes in the economy. Unfortunately, Colorado’s Labor Market Information agency has chosen to use the SA data set as the foundation of its monthly labor reports.

A look at the non-seasonally adjusted data (NSA) shows that Colorado has added an average of 38,800 workers through the first three quarters of the year. The year-end data shouldn’t be too far off that mark, before revisions. Final revisions, made by BLS in March of 2013 and 2014, will likely be in an upward direction since the non-farm, or wage and salary data typically understates growth during periods of sustained growth.

Overall job growth is broad based with the strongest absolute growth occurring in the following sectors:
6,700 Tourism
5,900 Private, Education, and HealthCare
4,700 Professional, and Scientific, and Technical Services
4,700 Retail Trade
4,400 Construction
4,100 Employment Services
3,100 Manufacturing

The following sectors posted absolute job gains that were more moderate:
2,400 K-12 Education
1,800 Extractive Industries
1,700 Wholesale Trade
1,500 Higher Education
1,300 Corporate Headquarters (MCE)
1,300 Personal (Other) Services

Minimal change was recorded in the following sectors:
800 Financial Activities
300 B-to-B (Not Employment Services)
Flat State (Not Higher Education)
-200 Utilities
-400 Transportation & Warehousing

More significant job losses were reported in the following:
-400 Transportation & Warehousing
-700 Federal Government
-2,300 Local Government (Not K-12)
-2,400 Information

Average employment for the first quarter of the year was 47,300 greater than 2011. At the time that level of increase did not seem realistic or sustainable. In April, job growth dropped off to a rate that was in line with the sluggish growth of the U.S. economy.

Average employment for the past six months has been 34,600 and the range of year-over-year job gains has varied from 31,200 to 37,100. It seems realistic to expect similar job gains through the end of the year.

For more detailed analysis of the Colorado economy go to cber.co.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Are We Better Off Now Than We Were Four Years Ago? – The United States

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During this election season the politicians have raised the question, “Are we better off now than we were four years ago?” It is easy to find data that supports or rejects the notion that “we” are better off today, but it is difficult to provide a clear cut answer either way.

U.S. Output
• Real GDP output is stronger than 4 years ago, although it is increasing at a less than desirable rate.
• Since 1930 Real GDP has increased 64 of 82 years, or 78% of the time. It has declined in back-to-back years from 1930 to 1933, 1945 to 1947, 1974 to 1975, and 2008 to 2009. It is very simple. Because the U.S. population is growing there is increased demand for goods most of the time, hence increased output.

U.S. Debt
• From 1966 to 2000, the Federal debt rose from $.3 trillion to $5.8 trillion. By mid-2012 it has reached almost $16 trillion.
• From Q3 2008 to Q4 2010 consumers began deleveraging. Since then, they have continued to take on debt at a pre-2008 pace.
• While an argument can be made that it was necessary for the U.S. to incur a portion of the debt to prevent a depression, it is difficult to justify the over-consumption by consumers.

U.S. Employment and Unemployment
• During the 69 months between January 2007 and September 2012 the U.S. lost jobs in 31 months and gained jobs in 38 months.
• In 2012, total U.S. employment is below total employment in 2008; jobs are being added at a faster rate than they were in 2008.
• In 2012 the number of jobs added is trending upward, whereas it was trending downward in 2008.
• The number of unemployed workers is much higher in 2012 than in 2007 and 2008.
• The unemployment rate in 2012 is much higher than in 2008.
• In 2012, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed workers is trending downward, whereas, it was trending upward in 2008.
• Since 1940 U.S. employment has increased 54 of 72 years, or 80% of the time. Five of the 14 declining years have occurred in the past decade (2002-2003 and 2008-2010). The increase in population coupled with the increase in demand for goods and services has generally resulted in an increase in jobs.

Financial Well-Being
• The 2012 Credability Consumer Distress Index is above the 2008 level and trending upwards (this is good news).  Consumers are still “At Risk.”
• Health Care Coverage – The 2011 percentage of coverage is slightly below the 2008 level.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – the DJIA is about 4,800 points above its level at this time (October) in 2008.
• Housing prices – Nationally, 2012 housing prices are below 2008 levels.

Transportation
• Average gas prices for 2008 were $3.21 per gallon. Through the first 44 weeks of 2012, average prices are $3.57 per gallon.
• After bottoming out in early 2009 U.S. auto sales have trended upward and are approaching 15 million a year.  Sales in 2012 are better than 2008.

For more detailed analysis of the state of the economy compared to four years ago, visit https://cber.co or click here.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Most Recent Labor Report Not What Incumbents Want to Hear

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The October 5th Bureau of Labor Statistics press release was disappointing, particularly for incumbents in the upcoming elections. The report indicated that the U.S. added only 114,000 nonfarm jobs in September. It stated, “Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing but changed little in most other major industries.” While job creation is important, the expansion of these industries does little to create jobs in other sectors.

The recent update also indicated that there are 12 million Americans out of work. Four years ago that number was 9.5 million and 6 years ago it was 6.8 million. The fact that the unemployment rate edged downward to 7.8% seems somewhat irrelevant given this data.

The data can be looked at from a slightly different perspective. That view indicates that the nation has regained about half the jobs lost as a result of the Great Recession. Ugh!

The private sector added 104,000 jobs for the month, while government employment added 10,000 workers. This is the second month in a row for increased government employment. While some have an unfavorable view of job gains in the public sector, in this case, it may be a positive indicator that state and local revenue streams have improved.

The BLS announcement was preceded by the ADP employment report which stated that private nonfarm employment had risen by 162,000 in September, 189,000 in August, and 156,000 in July. At this point, ADP is clearly more optimistic about the recovery than the BLS.

On average, Colorado nonfarm employment comprises about 1.72% of the U.S. total. If Colorado grows at the same pace as the U.S., the state data will gain about 2,000 jobs in September. We’ll see what BLS says in their monthly update on October 19th.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Lackluster Job Growth on Tap for Remainder of 2012

horvath

Through the first 8 months of 2012 there are 39,125 more jobs in Colorado than last year.

The average for the first 3 months was 47,300 workers with a drop-off in the next five months to 34,200.

In other words, the state is on track to hire between 35,000 and 40,000 for the year.

Two things could cause this number to drop below 35,000:
• BLS could make significant changes in future revisions. This is not likely given a recent announcement by the BLS that the recovery has been underestimated, i.e. employment numbers will be revised upwards.
• The economy could fall off a cliff as a result of an unforeseen event (9/11, Katrina, war, etc.).

Annual employment is calculated by averaging monthly employment for a 12 month period. Similarly, the annual change is the average of the month over same month differences.

As mentioned, the average change for the first 8 months of this year is 39,125 jobs and the average monthly change is trending downward. If that downward path continues the annual average will approach 35,000.

A look at several scenarios shows the change the last four months of the year will have on the 2012 average :
• If an average of 40,000 jobs is added for each of the last four months, the current average will change very little; it would increase slightly to 39,400.
• If an average of 30,000 jobs is added for each of the last four months, the annual change will be 36,100 jobs.
• If an average of 20,000 jobs is added for each of the last four months, the annual change will be 32,800 jobs.
• If an average of 10,000 jobs is added for each of the last four months, the annual change will be 29,500 jobs.
• If an average of 0 jobs is added for each of the last four months, the annual change would drop to 26,100.

At this point it seems likely that average employment for the last four months will be 30,000 or higher. While there are potential headwinds that could put the economy in a tailspin, it appears unlikely that will happen in the remaining four months.

There are two reasons to be optimistic about the final quarter. In a matter of weeks, the election will be over and the country can begin to move past the rhetoric of the campaign and start to chart a path for the next four years. Second, the the National Retail Federation recently announced that it expects holiday sales to be 4.1% greater than last year. Despite the high unemployment rate there are more people working and there are signs that some of Colorado’s volatile industries are rebounding. Sales growth at this level is a positive indicator, at least for the next three months.

While it is easy to complain about the state’s lackluster job growth of 35,000 to 40,000, it is important to keep in mind that 15 years ago Coloradans were complaining about all the people moving to Colorado and the accompanying cone zones.  Wouldn’t it be nice if we could have it both world – strong job growth and no cone zones?

For cber.co’s latest update on the Colorado economy click here.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

State Economic Agencies Point to Slower Growth in 2013

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The Colorado Legislative Council (CLC) and the Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB) recently released their Q3 economic updates. As can be surmised by their names, CLC and OSPB provide comprehensive economic information and forecasts to inform discussion about the state and national economies.

Their most current updates show the two groups are upbeat about the economy for 2012. At this point, they are much less optimistic about the prospects for 2013.

CLC
National Employment
2012  1.3% growth and 133,100,000 employees
2013  0.6% growth and 133,900,000 employees

National Unemployment
2012   8.3%
2013   9.1%

State Employment
2012  1.7% growth and  2,296,600 employees
2013   0.7% growth and 2,312,700 employees

State Unemployment
2012   8.3%
2013   9.4%

OSPB

National Employment
2012  1.3% growth and 133,000,000 employees
2013   0.8% growth and 134,100,000 employees

National Unemployment
2012  8.3%
2013  8.2%

State Employment
2012  1.7%  growth and  2,296,700 employees
2013  1.0%  growth and 2,320,300 employees

State Unemployment
2012  8.0%
2013  7.8%

There are notable differences between the two forecasts for 2013. This begs the question, “Are the two groups intentionally presenting best and worst case scenarios or are their differing viewpoints a legitimate indication of the diverse landscape?”

For more information about updates from OSPB click here.

To view the forecast for CLC click here.

For the most latest cber.co monthly update for Colorado click here.

 

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Colorado Job Creation Remains Lackluster

horvath

The recent release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Business Dynamics (BDM) dataset shows that Colorado job creation remains weak.

Unlike other job statistics, which report the change in net jobs, the BDM statistics measure gross job gains and gross jobs lost. The data is derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which explains why the lag in reporting is about 7 to 9 months.

Gross job gains were weak during 2010 and 2011, averaging 127,691 for the eight quarters. During the 7 previous quarters (Q2 2008 through Q4 2009), average quarterly gains were 124,895. This period included much of the 2007 recession. On average, gross job gains have been about the same for the period 2007 through 2011.

For the eight quarters in 2010 and 2011, average job losses were 120,452. By comparison, average job losses were 148,913 for the seven prior quarters (Q2 2008 through Q4 2009).

For 2010 and 2011, net job gains were primarily a result of reduced jobs losses and weak job gains. A variety of factors are responsible for this lack of job creation and ultimately the slow recovery.

In the chart below:
Heavy horizontal blue lines represent average gross gains for the period.
Heavy horizontal red lines represent average losses for the period.
Light blue lines represent quarterly totals (same as previous charts).
Light red lines represent quarterly totals (same as previous charts).

For additional information on the Colorado go to https://cber.co/CBEReconomy.html.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

National Jobs Data Continues to Disappoint

horvath

The September 7th Bureau of Labor Statistics press release created an uproar with the announcement that the U.S. added only 96,000 net jobs in August. This “anemic” job creation was accompanied by a downward revision in the July data from 22,000 to 141,000.

The private sector added 103,000 jobs for the month. This means government employment declined by 7,000 workers.

The report came on the heels of the ADP employment report which stated that private nonfarm employment had risen by 201,000 in August and July private sector employment had been revised upward by 10,000. Clearly, the two reports on the same topic tell two distinct stories.

At the same time BLS national unemployment slipped to 8.1%. The decline is relatively insignificant.

Of greater concern than the numbers is the impact the current economic conditions are having on the culture in the American workforce. While it is common for workers to feel like they are not valued or part of the decision making process, those feelings are exacerbated during the current economic environment.

Deborah Brackney, Vice President of the Mountain States Employers Council, recently said in an interview with 9News that “Anywhere from 50-60 percent of employees right now say that if they could find another job, they would leave their current employer.” She also added that a recent Gallup poll shows that only 30 percent of employees are engaged in the workplace. Lost productivity associated with this lack of involvement in the company is approximately $300 billion. A critical source of the problem is the lack of communications in the workplace.

In other words, the impacts of the Great Recession have touched both unemployed and employed workers in significant ways.

On average, Colorado nonfarm employment is about 1.72% of the U.S. total. If Colorado grows at the same pace as the U.S. the state data will reflect a gain of about 1,650 jobs. We’ll see what BLS says on September 21.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.