On March 5, 2013 The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved into uncharted territory when it closed at 14,253.77. This surpassed the previous peak, last seen on October 9, 2007. To quote the legendary musician Sam Cooke, “It’s been a long time coming”, 1,974 days to be exact.
The run that ended on October 9, 2007 began on October 9, 2002 when the DJIA bottomed out at 7,286.27. In those five years the bulls drove the DJIA up by 6,878.26 points. Quite a rally!
Then the DJIA cratered, dropping from 14,253.77 to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. It lost 7,617.48 points. That brings back painful memories. It has taken almost four years to regain what the market lost in less than one year.
As of March 9 (assuming there is no collapse between now and then) the current bull market will have gained over 7,600 points, in 1,096 days. Impressive! But, how much longer will it last?
The Colorado economic landscape is much different than it was in October 2007.
Wage and Salary Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)
October 2007 2,345,500
Most recent December 2012 2,316,600
Colorado has about 28,900 fewer workers today. (That number will be slightly less when the BLS releases their annual revisions later this month.
Unemployment Rate(Seasonally Adjusted)
October 2007 4.0% and rising
Most recent December 2012 7.5% and slowly declining
State Sales Tax Revenue
FYE June 2008 $2,126.6 Million
FYE June 2013 $2,226.6 Million
The annual projections are only $100 million higher.
Individual Income Tax Revenue
FYE June 2008 $4,973.7 million
FYE June 2013 $5,216.9 million
Annual projections are only $243.2 million higher.
General Fund
FYE June 2008 $7,742.9 million
FYE June 2013 $8,025.9 million
Annual projections are only $283.0 million higher.
Credability Consumer Distress Index
Q3 2009 79
Most recent Q4 2012 75
The index is 4 points lower meaning consumers are still at risk.
Gasoline Prices All Grades
Week ending October 11, 2007 $2.81 per gallon
Week ending March 4, 2013 $3.62 per gallon
Gasoline prices are $.81 cents higher per gallon.
Case Shiller
Q3 2007 136.1 and declining
Q3 2012 131.6 and rising
The housing market is improving.
It is truly a different world in Colorado. Clearly, the state economy has not experienced the same level of growth as corporate profits and the stock market.
©Copyright 2011 by CBER.