Over time, recoveries from recessions have mirrored the downturn, i.e. a steep recovery usually follows a sharp downturn. That was not the case with the 2001 or 2007 recession.
Nationally, the economy was too weak to support job growth, as evidenced by the four false starts in seasonally adjusted job growth.
• An average of 315,000 jobs was added for the three month period March to May 2010. This gain can be attributed to temporary Census workers.
• An average of 239,000 jobs was added for the three month period February to April 2011.
• An average of 252,000 jobs was added for the three month period December 2011 to February 2012.
• An average of 168,000 jobs was added for the three month period July 2012 to September 2012 – it is debatable whether this job growth to strong enough to be classified as a false start.
In Colorado, there have been five false starts since the end of the recession
• An average of 4,000 jobs was added for the seven month period February to July 2010 (One month showed declines). This anomaly was temporary Census workers.
• An average of 4,200 jobs was added for the four month period October 2010 to April 2011.
• An average of 4,300 jobs was added for the four month period July to October 2011.
• An average of 8,400 jobs was added for the three month period January to March 2012. This can be attributed to a large increase in construction workers.
• An average of 8,000 jobs was added for the three month period September to November 2012.
Most national forecasts project a slowdown in the economy during the first half of 2013. If that is the case, then the rally in the second half of 2012 will be wasted.
Will 2013 be the year that Colorado has strong sustained growth?
©Copyright 2011 by CBER.