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Advanced Technology Cluster Contributes 17.8% to GDP Growth

July 6, 2015July 26, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

In early June the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Gross Domestic Product at the state level for two-digit NAICS Codes.

Since 1997 Colorado Real GDP has grown at a faster rate than the Real GDP for the U.S. (Sum of States) in 11 of 17 years. The 2014 U.S. rate of growth was 2.2% compared to 4.7% for Colorado.

Since 1997 Colorado Real GDP has grown at a faster rate than the U.S. (Sum of States), 2.8% vs. 2.1%.

There were 12 sectors that lost share in 2014, i.e. their percent of contribution for these sectors was less than their percent of the 2014 total. Collectively, they accounted for 72.9% of the 2014 GDP and 53.5% of the change in the GDP. It was disappointing that the proxy for Colorado’s advanced technology cluster only contributed 17.8% to state’s GDP.

The following table shows the sectors, their percentage of the 2014 GDP and their contribution to the GDP.

Sector	% of 2014 Total	% of 2014 Contribution
Educational services	0.7%	0.6%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting	1.1%	0.3%
Other services, except government	2.3%	1.8%
Administrative and waste management services	3.0%	2.9%
Retail trade	5.4%	3.9%
Finance and insurance	5.6%	3.1%
Health care and social assistance	6.0%	5.8%
Manufacturing	7.1%	6.8%
Information	7.2%	2.9%
Professional, scientific, and technical services	8.9%	8.1%
Government	12.1%	4.8%
Real estate and rental and leasing	13.5%	12.4%

There are concerns regarding the level of contribution for the five sectors that have the greatest share of the state’s GDP. The top sectors are:
• Real Estate 13.5%
• Government 12.1%
• Professional, scientific, and technical services, 8.9%
• Information 7.2%
• Manufacturing 7.1%
These five sectors accounted for 48.8% of the 2014 GDP; however they only contributed 35.0% of the 2014 GDP growth.

Of specific concern is the fact that PST, Information, and Manufacturing accounted for 23.2% of the state’s 2014 GDP, yet these 3 sectors only contributed 17.8% of the growth of the GDP. These three sectors are a proxy for the state’s advanced technology cluster, a cluster that is supposed to provide the state with a competitive advantage.

Despite these concerns, the level of Real GDP Growth in 2014 provided significant momentum for the Colorado economy moving into 2015.

Mining Sector Largest Contributor to State’s GDP in 2014

June 30, 2015July 26, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

In early June the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Gross Domestic Product at the state level for two-digit NAICS Codes.

Since 1997 Colorado Real GDP has grown at a faster rate than the Real GDP for the U.S. (Sum of States) in 11 of 17 years. The 2014 U.S. rate of growth was 2.2% compared to 4.7% for Colorado. The Mining Sector played a major role in Colorado’s higher rate of growth this past year.

Since 1997 Colorado Real GDP has grown at a faster rate than the U.S. (Sum of States), 2.8% vs. 2.1%.

The following table shows the sectors, their percentage of the 2014 GDP, and their contribution to the GDP.

Sector	% of 2014 Total	% of 2014 Contribution
Arts, entertainment, and recreation	1.3%	1.8%
Utilities	1.5%	3.0%
Management of companies and enterprises (MCE)	2.1%	2.9%
Transportation and warehousing	2.8%	2.9%
Accommodation and food services	3.2%	3.4%
Construction	4.4%	8.6%
Wholesale trade	5.5%	5.7%
Mining	6.2%	18.2%

Key points about the contribution of these sectors to GDP growth are listed below.
• The Mining Sector was the major driver in the growth of the state’s GDP, accounting for 18.2% of the change. Volatility in the price of a barrel of oil could potentially have a major impact on this sector’s level of contribution to the 2015 GDP.
• The contribution of the Construction Sector has been driven by a mix of sustained residential and nonresidential growth.
• The combination of the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation and the Accommodation and Food Services sectors are commonly referred to as Tourism or Leisure and Hospitality. In 2014 the Tourism sector accounted for 4.5% of the GDP% and 5.2% of its growth. Tourism is an important part of the economy for each of the state’s 64 counties.
• The Utilities sector is small, but it experienced growth in 2014 because of strong overall employment and population growth. In addition, GDP growth increased because there was a significant gain in the number of business establishments in 2014.
• The increase in the MCE sector is a result of a 4.5% increase in the number of MCE establishments. In other words more businesses translated into greater GDP growth.
• Both the Wholesale Trade and the Transportation and Warehousing Sectors are small industries. In 2015 they experienced greater than usual gains in employment, which in turn meant stronger GDP growth.

With 4.7% Real GDP growth in 2014, the state economy had significant momentum moving into 2015. Through the first six months of the year, the state has capitalized on that momentum.

2014 Colorado Real GDP Growth More than Twice the Rate for U.S.

June 18, 2015July 25, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

In early June the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Gross Domestic Product at the state level for two-digit NAICS Codes.

Since 1997 Colorado Real GDP has grown at a faster rate than the Real GDP for the U.S. (Sum of States) in 11 of 17 years.

Since 1997 Colorado Real GDP has grown at a faster rate than the U.S. (Sum of States), 2.8% vs. 2.1%. The 2014 U.S. rate of growth was 2.2% compared to 4.7% for Colorado.

There were 8 sectors that gained share in 2014, i.e., their percent of contribution to GDP was greater than their percent of the 2014 total GDP. Collectively, they accounted for 27.1% of the 2014 GDP and 46.5% of the change in the GDP. These sectors were:
• Arts, entertainment, and recreation
• Utilities
• Management of companies and enterprises
• Transportation and warehousing
• Accommodation and food services
• Construction
• Wholesale trade
• Mining

There were 12 sectors that lost share in 2014, i.e. their percent of contribution for these sectors was less than their percent of the 2014 total. Collectively, they accounted for 72.9% of the 2014 GDP and 53.5% of the change in the GDP. These sectors were:
• Educational services
• Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
• Other services, except government
• Administrative and waste management services
• Retail trade
• Finance and insurance
• Health care and social assistance
• Manufacturing
• Information
• Professional, scientific, and technical services
• Government
• Real estate and rental and leasing

The level of Real GDP Growth in 2014 provided significant momentum for the Colorado economy moving into 2015.

Boulder County and Larimer County Business Development

June 12, 2015June 27, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

Both Boulder County and Larimer County are the source of innovation and entrepreneurship that helps drive the Colorado economy.

This analysis compares changes in the unemployment rate, population growth, the number of private sector establishments, and employment. It shows how the growth patterns for the two counties are significantly different for these demographics.

In summary, this comparison shows that:
• Since 2001, Boulder County and Larimer County have usually had unemployment rates below the state – which is a mixed blessing.
• Since 2001, the population, employment, and number of private sector establishments for Boulder County have grown below the rates for Colorado and Larimer County.
Finally, this analysis poses questions that relate to the changes in these data sets.

Unemployment Rate

Typically, the unemployment rates for both Boulder and Larimer County are below the rate for the state.

Population

In 2001 Larimer County population was 260,746. It increased by 63,376 and was 324,122 in 2014.
In 2001 the Colorado population was 4,444,513. It increased by 906,059 and was 5,350,572 in 2014.
In 2001 Boulder County population was 278,981. It increased by 34,352 and was 313,333 in 2014.

For this period the rates of change in the population follow:
• Larimer County 24.3%
• Colorado 20.4%
• Boulder County 12.3%.

Establishments

In 2001 there were 8,479 Larimer County establishments. The number increased by 1,976 to 10,455 in 2014.
In 2001 there were 151,025 Colorado establishments. The number increased by 24,957 to 175,992 in 2014.
In 2001 there were 12,335 Boulder County establishments. The number increased by 1,165 to 13,500 in 2014.

For this period the rate of change in the number of establishments follows:
• Larimer County 23.0%
• Colorado 16.5%
• Boulder County 9.4%.

Employment

In 2001 Larimer County employment was 126,300. It increased by 22,300 and was 148,600 in 2014.
In 2001 Colorado employment was 2,226,800. It increased by 234,000 and was 2,460,800 in 2014.
In 2001 Boulder County employment was 166,200. It increased by 10,500 and was 176,700 in 2014.

For this period the rate of change in the employment follows:
• Larimer County 17.6%
• Colorado 10.5%
• Boulder County 6.3%.

Implications

The following questions arise when looking at the changes in the unemployment rate, population, the number of private sector establishments, and employment in Boulder County and Larimer County. (Boulder County is also the Boulder MSA and Larimer County is the Fort Collins MSA).

• How do organizations in Boulder and Fort Collins find qualified workers when the regional unemployment rate is lower than the state and other MSAs? Do they have established training programs? Do they recruit workers from other companies (in-state or out-of-state)? Do they provide their workers premium compensation packages?
• Why is the rate of growth for the Boulder population lower than Fort Collins and the state? Is this a result of a lack of affordable and attainable housing in Boulder? Will the completion of improvements to the 36 corridor make it easier for workers to commute to Boulder? Can commuters afford to use it?
• Why are the number of new business establishments in Boulder growing at a slower rate than Colorado and Fort Collins? Is there a lack of adequate commercial space? Is commercial real estate too expensive in Boulder? Why are other areas more attractive? Is it too expensive to operate a business in Boulder? Is it necessary to export innovative ideas out of Boulder so companies can be successful? Why do companies stay in Boulder
• Why is the employment growth rate for Boulder lower than the state and Fort Collins?

This analysis of data for Larimer, Boulder, and Colorado shows that communities have varied business development policies and priorities that have been successful in different ways.

Colorado Job Growth Continues to be Solid in April

May 31, 2015June 25, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

BLS recently released April wage and salary employment data for Colorado. The job growth is softer than expected given the strength of the U.S. jobs numbers, projected improvement in the growth of the economy (GDP), and the outlook of purchasing managers as measured by the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices. Given the strength of the U.S. employment data, it seems reasonable for the state to be ahead of last year by 70,000 to 75,000 jobs, even with the slight decreases in the state oil and gas industry.

In April there were 34,400 jobs (NSA) in the Mining and Logging Sector. This is down about 1,300 jobs from December, 2014 but about 1,800 jobs above the April 2014 total. The sector had record employment this past December.

Looking beyond the oil and gas industries we see that about two-thirds of the job growth this year has been in Health Care; Accommodations and Food Services; Construction; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (PST); and Manufacturing.

Approximately 21% of all jobs added were in Leisure and Hospitality. The tourism industry is important to all 64 counties in the state. Colorado had a strong ski season and is poised to have a strong summer season.

About 10% of total jobs added were in the PST, Manufacturing, and Information sectors. These sectors are the source of primary and advanced technology jobs. Primary jobs attract wealth from outside the state that is spent locally, they export a significant portion of their goods and services, and they often pay wages that are much greater than the state average.

Probably the hottest topic on the economic front has been the price of housing and rentals. The Case Shiller Home Price Index for Denver indicates that home prices increased by 10.0% over the past year and 1.4% on a month-over-month basis. Rentals have risen at slightly lower rates.

The comparative strength of the Colorado economy over the past five years has caused labor shortages in key occupations, i.e. it is necessary to attract talent from outside Colorado. Out-of -state workers from some parts of the country will experience sticker shock when they look at home prices in the metro area.

On a positive note, increased appreciation in home prices increases the “paper wealth” of individuals. This will cause home owners and landlords to remain confident in the economy and willing to spend money. The increase in prices, and ultimately property taxes, is a two-edged sword. Property owners don’t like the increase, but schools and local governments will see an increase in funding.

At the moment the increase in housing prices does not appear to have deterred job growth. Stay tuned – that may change! It will continue to be an interesting year for the Colorado economy.

Industry Codes with Leading Output per Employee for Colorado

May 25, 2015May 23, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

The following list identifies the leading output per employee categories for Colorado. The list has been extracted from an IMPLAN database, www.implan.com. This database divides output and employment into 440 categories.

IMPLAN is an economic analysis tool that uses input-output analysis in combination with regional specific Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Models.

Total output for the model is $488,356,072,817 and employment is 3,235,493. Overall output per employee is $150,937.

There were at least 1,000 workers for each of the top 35 categories. A minimum of 1,000 workers was set because many small categories have a high output per employee that may not be sustainable if they were larger. Characteristics of this group of companies are:
• The range of output per worker is $322,539 to $3,206,588.
• Average output per employee is $562,606.
• Total employment is 190,042. This is 5.9% of the state total.
• Total output was $106,918,935,715. This is 21.9% of the state total.
Most of these categories include companies that provide primary jobs. They are mostly manufacturing or advance technology companies.

There were 132 categories with average output per employee greater than $322,539. Each of these categories had fewer than 1,000 workers.
• Total employment is 34,786. This is 1.1% of the state total.
• Total output was $47,425,590,085. This is 9.7% of the state total.
• Average output per employee is $1,363,337.20.
As was the case with the above category, most of these categories include companies that provide primary jobs.

Finally, there were 238 categories with average output per employee less than $322,539.
• Total employment is 3,010,664. This is 93.0% of the state total.
• Total output is $334,011,547,017. This is 68.4% of the state total.
• Average output per employee is $110,943.
This group provides a wide variety of companies and industries. Many of the categories with lower output per employee are retail operations or personal or business services. They are important to society for a variety of reasons, but they are drivers of the economy.

There were 35 categories with no employment or output.

Industry Codes with Leading Output per Employee for Colorado

Rank	IndustryCode	Description	Employment	Output/Employee	% of State Average
1	366	Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets	1,664	$3,206,588	2,124%
2	234	Electronic computer manufacturing	1,189	$1,485,686	984%
3	55	Fluid milk and butter manufacturing	1,157	$1,430,300	948%
4	32	Natural gas distribution	1,099	$1,363,518	903%
5	133	Pharmaceutical preparation manufacturing	2,156	$1,347,071	892%
6	235	Computer storage device manufacturing	2,049	$1,174,215	778%
7	170	Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing	1,518	$1,144,157	758%
8	243	Semiconductor and related device manufacturing	3,176	$1,078,421	714%
9	71	Breweries	3,651	$1,048,101	694%
10	225	Other engine equipment manufacturing	1,673	$920,406	610%
11	31	Electric power generation, transmission, and distribution	6,651	$802,901	532%
12	349	Cable and other subscription programming	3,596	$791,950	525%
13	28	Drilling oil and gas wells	2,823	$768,501	509%
14	70	Soft drink and ice manufacturing	1,956	$736,120	488%
15	190	Metal can, box, and other metal container (light gauge) manufacturing	1,052	$680,582	451%
16	351	Telecommunications	30,489	$670,023	444%
17	24	Mining gold, silver, and other metal ore	2,377	$585,851	388%
18	236	Computer terminals and other computer peripheral equipment manufacturing	1,769	$541,175	359%
19	345	Software publishers	14,165	$496,019	329%
20	283	Motor vehicle parts manufacturing	1,098	$483,561	320%
21	249	Search, detection, and navigation instruments manufacturing	2,520	$481,246	319%
22	248	Electromedical and electrotherapeutic apparatus manufacturing	3,307	$460,979	305%
23	222	Turbine and turbine generator set units manufacturing	1,214	$437,374	290%
24	333	Transport by rail	2,877	$432,021	286%
25	253	Electricity and signal testing instruments manufacturing	1,364	$429,077	284%
26	287	Guided missile and space vehicle manufacturing	6,128	$426,830	283%
27	158	Glass container manufacturing	465	$405,217	268%
28	254	Analytical laboratory instrument manufacturing	1,109	$388,003	257%
29	354	Monetary authorities and depository credit intermediation activities	31,465	$368,257	244%
30	10	All other crop farming	4,425	$361,804	240%
31	251	Industrial process variable instruments manufacturing	1,094	$347,713	230%
32	20	Extraction of oil and natural gas	34,047	$331,039	219%
33	352	Data processing, hosting, ISP, web search portals and related services	8,766	$328,557	218%
34	343	Book publishers	1,133	$325,470	216%
35	305	Surgical and medical instrument, laboratory and medical instrument manufacturing	4,819	$322,539	214%
		Other	3,045,450	$125,248	83%
		Total	3,235,493	$150,397

All Jobs are Important to the Economy

May 13, 2015December 22, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

All jobs are important to the economy for different reasons.

For example, health care jobs make it possible for us to maintain a high quality of life. Construction jobs allow us to build new homes, commercial space, and maintain and improve the quality of our roads. Tourism jobs make it possible for us to enjoy the mountains, the waterways, and the natural beauty of Colorado.

Primary jobs are particularly important because they bring in wealth from outside the state to produce products that are then exported. Manufacturing jobs, such as those at Vestas or Ball Aerospace, are examples of primary jobs. Quite often primary jobs have higher than average wages.

On the topic of wages…

In 2014, average Colorado private sector wages for all industries were $53,068.

Although 2015 has been a solid year for job growth, there have been concerns the state has been adding too many low-paying jobs and that wage increases have not kept up with inflation.

Through the first six months of 2015 average wage and salary employment for the private sector is 63,500 greater than the same period in 2014.

For the first half of 2014 the leading sectors for job growth were:
• Private Education and Health Care added 15,400 jobs. The sector accounted for 24.3% of total jobs added. Average annual wages for 2014 were $45,879.
• Accommodations and Food Services added 12,900 jobs. The sector accounted for 20.3% of total jobs added. Average annual wages for 2014 were $19,445.
• Construction added 12,700 jobs. The sector accounted for 20.0% of total jobs added. Average annual wages for 2014 were $53,664.
Only the wages for the Construction sector were slightly greater than the state average.

These three sectors accounted for about two-thirds of the jobs added in the first half of 2015. Estimated average annual wages for these sectors was $39,973, based on 2014 average wages.

Average annual wages for the following sectors were below the state average.
• Administrative and Wage Management.
• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
• Other Services
• Retail Trade
In the first half of 2015 they accounted for slightly more than 9% of jobs added. Estimated average annual wages for these sectors was $31,677, based on 2014 average wages.

The seven sectors mentioned above accounted for about three-fourths of the job growth in the first half of 2015, yet the average wages for these jobs were about $38,945. This is well below the state average.

The following sectors were responsible for slightly more than one-fourth of the state’s job growth in the first half of the year. All sectors have average annual wages above the state average.
• Corporate Headquarters (MCE)
• Financial Activities
• Information
• Manufacturing
• Natural Resources and Mining
• Professional and Scientific
• Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
• Wholesale Trade
Estimated average annual wages for these sectors was $78,685, based on 2014 average wages.

There are several takeaways from Colorado’s wage and job growth in the first half of 2015:
• Jobs and wages don’t expand at an even pace across all industries.
• Strong job growth is not always accompanied by strong wage growth.
• Strong growth in low paying sectors has been accompanied by declines or minimal growth in some higher paying sectors.
• The wage and salary employment data may not be accurately representing actual job growth in the state.

Strong job growth may not translate into increased consumption because average annual wages for many of the additional workers are well below the state average. In turn, the addition of a disproportionate number of lower wage jobs may result in lower than expected tax collections for state and local governments.

All jobs are important, but sometimes higher paying jobs have a greater importance than lower paying jobs.

Q1 2015 Colorado Employment Posts Solid Growth

April 25, 2015May 22, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

On April 21, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly wage and salary employment data for Colorado. Job growth for Q1 2015 was 3.1%, or 74,800 jobs, greater than Q1 2014. The Q1 2015 growth is down slightly from the 2014 annual average of 78,900 jobs; however it is in line with the 2015 cber. co forecast that calls for an increase of 73,000 to 79,000 jobs, or job growth at a rate of 3.0% to 3.2%.

The preliminary March 2015 Colorado employment was 68,900 jobs greater than the March 2014 value. The year-over-previous-year increase for February was 80,800 jobs. It was 74,600 jobs for January.

The lower level of growth in March does not necessarily signify a downward trend. Most likely it is a reflection of volatility related to changes in the extractive industries.

About 67.0% of total jobs added were in the Health Care; Accommodations and Food Services; Construction; Profesional, Scientific, and Technical Services (PST); and Manufacturing sectors.

Approximately 21.3% of all jobs added were in Leisure and Hospitality; however, the BLS estimate model has most likely overstated this YTD contribution.

About 9.9% of total jobs added were in the PST, Manufacturing, and Information sectors. These sectors are the source of primary and advanced technology jobs.

Nationally, average employment for Q1 2015 is about 2,265,133 jobs greater than Q1 2014 employment. While this rate of growth is solid, the Q1 value is less than the average number of jobs added during 2014 (2,313,033). A brutal winter in parts of the country prevented employment and output during the first quarter from being stronger.

The cber.co forecast for U.S. job growth in 2015 is 2,600,000 workers. Stronger job growth is expected in the second half of the year.

Expect Solid Growth in Colorado Wage and Salary Employment

April 19, 2015May 22, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

The U.S. economy remains on solid footing in anticipation of the upcoming release of BLS Colorado wage and salary employment data.

U.S. Employment and GDP

Earlier this month BLS reported the U.S. added 126,000 jobs in March compared to February. This was the weakest level of month-over-previous-month job growth for the seasonally adjusted data since 2013. Despite the slower rate of growth for March 2015, U.S. employment for March is about 2.29 million jobs greater than March 2014..

Currently, Colorado wage and salary employment is about 1.8% of the U.S. total. About 2.8% of U.S. job growth can be attributed to Colorado.

Most economists think U.S. Real GDP growth will be in the neighborhood of 2.5% to 3.0% this year. This past week The Conference Board bumped its 2015 projection for the U.S. output growth up to 2.9% based on projections for stronger personal consumption. This is notable given their conservative estimates over the past ten years. Meanwhile, other economists have bumped their forecasts down to the range of 2.5% to 3.0%

Stronger output growth should translate into a greater number of wage and salary workers. In other words, the slower rate of U.S. job growth in March appears to be a glitch rather than the start of a downward trend. The strong rate of U.S. job and output growth will ensure that in the short term Colorado with continue to add jobs at a rate similar to the past twelve months.

U.S. and Colorado Unemployment Rates

In March the U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%, but down from 6.6% a year ago.

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office has indicated the natural rate of unemployment is currently 5.2%. The natural rate is the point of equilibrium or the rate at which an economy will operate most efficiently.

When the unemployment rate drops below the natural rate there will be upward wage pressures and companies will be challenged to find qualified workers. The economy will operate inefficiently for different reasons than when the rate of unemployment is above the natural rate.

In Colorado, the February unemployment rate of 4.2% was well below the U.S. rate. Some Colorado industries are currently experiencing symptoms of an economy that is operating below the natural rate of unemployment. They are experiencing difficulty finding qualified workers in select occupations. In addition, there are upward wage pressures in industries such as construction and agriculture. Anecdotal evidence suggests some companies are not able to find workers even when they pay higher wages.

The state’s rate of unemployment is expected to remain below 4.5% in the near-term, although there are concerns the layoffs caused by lower oil prices will cause an increase in the unemployment rate. At the state level the direct impact of oil and gas layoffs may not have a major impact on total state employment and unemployment data, but it will definitely affect regions where the oil and gas industry has played a significant role in the economy, such as Weld and Garfield counties.

Expect continued solid growth in Colorado wage and salary employment in the short-term.

BLS Benchmark Revisions Push 2014 Colorado Employment Higher

March 20, 2015April 13, 2015 horvath Leave a comment

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their benchmark revisions for 2014 Colorado employment in March. The upward revisions were significant and showed that Colorado added 78,900 wage and salary jobs. The final revisions for 2013 were minimal.

The data provided no surprise for those who gauge economic growth by the activity on the streets. The magnitude of the upward revision was disappointing for those who rely heavily on accurate jobs data to make critical business decisions.

In fairness to BLS, it is a challenge to report employment data in periods of strong growth and decline. As has been the case with many public and private organizations, BLS has been expected to provide more accurate estimates in shorter time frame at a lower cost. That is not always an equation for high accuracy.

The “preliminary” data showed that Colorado employment was increasing at a decreasing rate in the second half of 2014. The “benchmark” data shows there was actually strong growth. In addition, their estimate methodologies caused noticeable errors in key industries. In other words, industries that were thought to be having a really strong impact on the growth of the state were only having a strong impact on it.

It is important to understand the significance of the difference between the preliminary and the benchmark data.

Most economic forecasts for 2015 were based on the preliminary 2014 data – the data with the errors. Most likely these forecasts will not accurately account for the actual magnitude of job growth in 2014 which may cause errors in their estimation of growth in 2015.

Use caution when reviewing any Colorado jobs forecasts for 2015. Most are likely to contain biases resulting incorrect assumptions derived from the 2014 data.

The good news is the state added jobs at a faster rate than anticipated. Most likely Colorado will enjoy a similar rate of growth in 2015.