U.S. Employment Continues Growth at a Slower Rate

On December 4th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly update for U.S. nonfarm payroll employment for November. The number of non-seasonally adjusted jobs increased by 2,650,000 in November compared to a year ago.

Based on current trends, the U.S. is on track to add 2,959,455 jobs in 2015.That equates to about 269,000 workers per month.

The November unemployment rate remained at 5.0% down from 5.8% a year ago. There were 7.9 million unemployed compared to 9.0 million last November.

A look at the seasonally adjusted data shows that job growth occurred in construction, professional and technical services, and health care. Losses occurred only in the mining and information sectors.

• Construction employment posted a gain of 46,000 in November. About 26,000 of those jobs were in the residential specialty trade contracting subsector. Year-over year construction employment is about 259,000 workers greater than last November.

• Professional and technical services added 28,000 jobs in November. About 11,000 jobs were in accounting and bookkeeping services and 5,000 were in computer systems design services. Compared to a year ago, the PST sector is about 298,000 jobs greater than the same period in 2015.

• Health care employment for November was 24,000 greater than October. About 13,000 workers were added in the hospital subsector. On a YOY basis health care employment is about 470,000 greater in 2015.

• Employment in food services and drinking places increase by about 32,000 jobs in November and it is up by 374,000 greater than a year ago.

• Combined, the four sectors mentioned above show job gains of about 1.4 million compared to a year ago.

• Compared to the prior month there was little change in the following sectors: manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and government.

All eyes will continue to be on the Fed and their meeting later this month. Although U.S. employment has increased at a decreasing rate through 2015, the latest BLS report is probably strong enough for them to finally announce a hike in short term interest rates.

Moving forward the $64 question is, “Will job growth continue at the rate experienced in the second half of the year or will we move forward at the more robust rate shown in the first half of the year?”

U.S. Employment

Colorado’s October Job Growth Reverses Downward Trend

Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 2015 wage and salary job growth continues to be positive, but it is increasing at a decreasing rate. Through the first nine months Colorado employment is 61,000 jobs greater than the same period last year.

During Q1 job growth was 75,000 greater than the same period a year ago. It dropped significantly during Q2 – 60,100 greater than Q2 2014. Q3 2015 job growth was only 47,700 greater than Q3 2014.

After declining for six months (March through August), employment increased from 42,100 in August to 42,400 in September.

About 76.2% of total jobs added were in the top five sectors:
Health Care 13,800
Accommodations and Food Services 12,300
Construction 11,500
Professional and Scientific 5,200
Manufacturing 3,600

Approximately 23.8% of all jobs added were in Leisure and Hospitality (AFS + AER). This sector touches all Colorado counties.

About 10.8% of total jobs added were in the PST, Manufacturing, and Information Sectors. These sectors are the source of primary and advanced technology jobs.

Colorado is projected to add 73,000 to 79,000 jobs in 2015, a gain of 3.0% to 3.2%. As mentioned earlier Colorado is on track to add 61,000 jobs this year.

CDLE/LMI has projected that a significant upward adjustment will be made to the Q4 2014 data and data for the first four months of 2015. These revisions will be made in March 2016. Total employment for 2015 should be at the lower end of the range of 73,000 to 79,000. This is the level of job growth forecasted by cber.co for 2015.

The good news is the downward trend in the number of jobs added may have been reversed in October. We will learn more next month and in March 2016 when the 2015 data is revised.

Wage and Salary Job Growth