Growth in Colorado Exports Bodes Well for Recovery

Recent export numbers provided a glimmer of hope that both the global and Colorado economies are slowly improving. As reported by Rita Wold in the November 12th issue of the Denver Post , Colorado exports through the first 8 months of the 2010 are about 10% higher than for the same period last year. This growth was driven by gains in the top agriculture category and each of the top four manufacturing groups.

Colorado exports, as calculated by WISER , peaked at almost $8.0 billion in 2006, followed by a series of declines to $5.9 billion last year. Total exports in the neighborhood of $6.5 billion are on tap for 2010.

The top agricultural export is, “Meat of Bovine Animal, Fresh or Chilled;” as beef sales are Colorado’s top meat export. In 2005, meat exports bottomed out at about $152 million as fears of Mad Cow disease caused many of the state’s trading partners to block sales of beef imports.. As concerns about the disease subsided, the markets for Colorado beef and other meats increased over the next several years to $400 million in 2008. Demand has declined with the global recession and Colorado meat exports should exceed $330 million this year.

On the manufacturing side of the equation, the top export category is electronic integrated circuits and microassembly parts. In 2006, exports in this category totaled $1.3 billion, and accounted for 16% of the state total. In 2010, this category will account for about 6% of total exports, or $430 million. The loss of the Intel plant in Colorado Springs several years ago, along with the restructuring of the computer storage industry brought about the precipitous decline in Colorado manufacturing exports and employment.

The increase in Colorado manufacturing exports bodes well for the recovery of the Colorado economy, however, it is not likely to drive a strong short-term increase in employment. Over the past decade, manufacturers have increased productivity and output at the expense of a larger work force.

The Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade  and the World Trade Center  provide a variety of programs and assistance to Colorado exporters. Many of these services are particularly valuable to first-time exporters or to business exporting to countries for the first time.

 

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Job Losses Expected in 2011 – State Demography Office

The 2010 Annual State Demography Meeting kicked off on a somber note, when staff economist David Keyser;  announced that the state’s recovery from the Great Recession will be painfully slow.

Some of the key points from Keyser’s review of the past year (2010) were:
• Job gains occurred in health care, government, and education.
• Ongoing losses in manufacturing continue to hinder the recovery because they have a high multiplier effect.
• Low wage jobs were hit harder.
• Access to credit provided a challenge for many companies.
• Small businesses saw significant setbacks.
• Rural counties that relied on oil and gas or tourism (such as the Western Slope) suffered greater losses, while agriculture-based economies were more stable.
• The loss of basic jobs, such as manufacturing, will have a long-term effect on the state because these jobs are likely to be relocated elsewhere.
• On the other hand, the loss of non-basic jobs, such as retail, food and beverage, or personal services will return in the same location.
• Colorado will remain a popular place to live and work and net migration will remain positive, but slightly below previous years.

Looking ahead, key points from Keyser’s presentation for 2011 were:
• Non-farm wage and salary employment will decline slightly and a best case scenario is that it will be flat. Wage and salary job losses should not exceed 22,000 (1%).
• Agriculture and small businesses are likely to post a slight increase, offsetting declines in wage and salary employment.
• Construction won’t come back in the immediate future.
• Health care will continue to add jobs.
• Colorado will continue to be closely tied to the US economy.
• Many of the effects of the 2007 recession could be permanent.

Keyser’s forecast for 2011 is slightly lower than what cber.co projected in late October, but the basic analysis of the current state of the economy is similar.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

KC Fed Cites Growth in 10th District High-Tech

The Denver Business Journal recently reported that the Kansas City Federal Reserve Beige Book stated that during late July and August, consumer spending in the 10th District “increased slightly from the previous period, and high-tech and transportation firms reported moderate growth.”

Colorado’s Office of Labor Market Information  (LMI) group has produced a definition of Advanced Technology (AT) and a data series based on this definition. That definition suggests that AT includes much of the Manufacturing; Information; and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sectors (PST).

Based on their definition of AT, the cluster does not appear to be performing as well in Colorado as their counterparts in other parts of the 10th district.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.