U.S. Economy Archives - Page 6 of 10 - Colorado-based Business and Economic Research

Are We Better Off Now Than We Were Four Years Ago? – The United States

October 30, 2012October 30, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

During this election season the politicians have raised the question, “Are we better off now than we were four years ago?” It is easy to find data that supports or rejects the notion that “we” are better off today, but it is difficult to provide a clear cut answer either way.

U.S. Output
• Real GDP output is stronger than 4 years ago, although it is increasing at a less than desirable rate.
• Since 1930 Real GDP has increased 64 of 82 years, or 78% of the time. It has declined in back-to-back years from 1930 to 1933, 1945 to 1947, 1974 to 1975, and 2008 to 2009. It is very simple. Because the U.S. population is growing there is increased demand for goods most of the time, hence increased output.

U.S. Debt
• From 1966 to 2000, the Federal debt rose from $.3 trillion to $5.8 trillion. By mid-2012 it has reached almost $16 trillion.
• From Q3 2008 to Q4 2010 consumers began deleveraging. Since then, they have continued to take on debt at a pre-2008 pace.
• While an argument can be made that it was necessary for the U.S. to incur a portion of the debt to prevent a depression, it is difficult to justify the over-consumption by consumers.

U.S. Employment and Unemployment
• During the 69 months between January 2007 and September 2012 the U.S. lost jobs in 31 months and gained jobs in 38 months.
• In 2012, total U.S. employment is below total employment in 2008; jobs are being added at a faster rate than they were in 2008.
• In 2012 the number of jobs added is trending upward, whereas it was trending downward in 2008.
• The number of unemployed workers is much higher in 2012 than in 2007 and 2008.
• The unemployment rate in 2012 is much higher than in 2008.
• In 2012, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed workers is trending downward, whereas, it was trending upward in 2008.
• Since 1940 U.S. employment has increased 54 of 72 years, or 80% of the time. Five of the 14 declining years have occurred in the past decade (2002-2003 and 2008-2010). The increase in population coupled with the increase in demand for goods and services has generally resulted in an increase in jobs.

Financial Well-Being
• The 2012 Credability Consumer Distress Index is above the 2008 level and trending upwards (this is good news). Consumers are still “At Risk.”
• Health Care Coverage – The 2011 percentage of coverage is slightly below the 2008 level.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – the DJIA is about 4,800 points above its level at this time (October) in 2008.
• Housing prices – Nationally, 2012 housing prices are below 2008 levels.

Transportation
• Average gas prices for 2008 were $3.21 per gallon. Through the first 44 weeks of 2012, average prices are $3.57 per gallon.
• After bottoming out in early 2009 U.S. auto sales have trended upward and are approaching 15 million a year. Sales in 2012 are better than 2008.

For more detailed analysis of the state of the economy compared to four years ago, visit https://cber.co or click here.

Are We Better Off Now Than We Were Four Years Ago? – Debt

October 18, 2012October 18, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

From 1966 to 2000 (34 years), the Federal debt rose from $.3 trillion to $5.8 trillion. It began to rise steeply in 2008 and by mid- 2012 it had reached almost $16 trillion. Between Q1 2008 and Q1 2012, Federal debt increased by about $6.4 trillion.
In June, 2008 consumers began deleveraging (this includes defaulting on loans). Their debt levels decreased for 27 months, until September, 2010. At that point their debt levels again began increasing and by June 2011 debt loads returned to the previous peak of June 2008. Since that time, they have been increasing at a rate similar to June, 2008.
Neither the debt levels of the federal government nor consumers are healthy for the economy in the long-term.

For more detailed analysis of the state of the economy compared to four years ago, visit https://cber.co or click here.

Most Recent Labor Report Not What Incumbents Want to Hear

October 12, 2012October 12, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

The October 5th Bureau of Labor Statistics press release was disappointing, particularly for incumbents in the upcoming elections. The report indicated that the U.S. added only 114,000 nonfarm jobs in September. It stated, “Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing but changed little in most other major industries.” While job creation is important, the expansion of these industries does little to create jobs in other sectors.

The recent update also indicated that there are 12 million Americans out of work. Four years ago that number was 9.5 million and 6 years ago it was 6.8 million. The fact that the unemployment rate edged downward to 7.8% seems somewhat irrelevant given this data.

The data can be looked at from a slightly different perspective. That view indicates that the nation has regained about half the jobs lost as a result of the Great Recession. Ugh!

The private sector added 104,000 jobs for the month, while government employment added 10,000 workers. This is the second month in a row for increased government employment. While some have an unfavorable view of job gains in the public sector, in this case, it may be a positive indicator that state and local revenue streams have improved.

The BLS announcement was preceded by the ADP employment report which stated that private nonfarm employment had risen by 162,000 in September, 189,000 in August, and 156,000 in July. At this point, ADP is clearly more optimistic about the recovery than the BLS.

On average, Colorado nonfarm employment comprises about 1.72% of the U.S. total. If Colorado grows at the same pace as the U.S., the state data will gain about 2,000 jobs in September. We’ll see what BLS says in their monthly update on October 19th.

National Jobs Data Continues to Disappoint

September 12, 2012September 12, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

The September 7th Bureau of Labor Statistics press release created an uproar with the announcement that the U.S. added only 96,000 net jobs in August. This “anemic” job creation was accompanied by a downward revision in the July data from 22,000 to 141,000.

The private sector added 103,000 jobs for the month. This means government employment declined by 7,000 workers.

The report came on the heels of the ADP employment report which stated that private nonfarm employment had risen by 201,000 in August and July private sector employment had been revised upward by 10,000. Clearly, the two reports on the same topic tell two distinct stories.

At the same time BLS national unemployment slipped to 8.1%. The decline is relatively insignificant.

Of greater concern than the numbers is the impact the current economic conditions are having on the culture in the American workforce. While it is common for workers to feel like they are not valued or part of the decision making process, those feelings are exacerbated during the current economic environment.

Deborah Brackney, Vice President of the Mountain States Employers Council, recently said in an interview with 9News that “Anywhere from 50-60 percent of employees right now say that if they could find another job, they would leave their current employer.” She also added that a recent Gallup poll shows that only 30 percent of employees are engaged in the workplace. Lost productivity associated with this lack of involvement in the company is approximately $300 billion. A critical source of the problem is the lack of communications in the workplace.

In other words, the impacts of the Great Recession have touched both unemployed and employed workers in significant ways.

On average, Colorado nonfarm employment is about 1.72% of the U.S. total. If Colorado grows at the same pace as the U.S. the state data will reflect a gain of about 1,650 jobs. We’ll see what BLS says on September 21.

Unemployment Isn’t the Same for Everybody

August 31, 2012August 31, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

This past month Coloradans took special notice when the unemployment rate was announced because it matched the U.S. rate. The July seasonally adjusted rate for both was 8.3%.

In July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that there were 13.4 million unemployed Americans, based on the non-seasonally adjusted rate (NAR) of 8.6%. This is slightly higher than the more frequently publicized seasonally adjusted rate (SAR) of 8.3%.

A closer look at the data shows distinct differences based on demographics and geography.

Gender
• 6.9 million men unemployed with a NAR of 8.2%.
• 6.5 million women unemployed with a NAR of 9.0%.

Race
• .5 million unemployed Asians with a NAR of 6.2%.
• 9.5 million unemployed Whites with a NAR of 7.6%.
• 2.8 million unemployed African-Americans with a NAR of 15.0%.

Ethnic Origins
• 2.5 million unemployed Latinos with a NAR of 10.3%.

Age Groups
• 4.0 million unemployed, 16-24 years old, with a NAR of 17.1%.
• 2.8 million unemployed, 25-34 years old, with a NAR of 8.3%.
• 2.2 million unemployed, 35-44 years old, with a NAR of 6.8%.
• 2.3 million unemployed, 45-54 years old, with a NAR of 6.6%.
• 1.5 million unemployed, 55-64 years old, with a NAR of 6.3%.
• .5 million unemployed, 65+ years old, with a NAR of 7.2%.

Marital Status
• 4.4 million unemployed married people, spouse present with a NAR of 5.4%.
Despite a steady recovery, there are segments of the population that have not found jobs.

Geographic rates are available for Colorado. In July both the NAR and SAR were coincidently 8.3%.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)
• The NARs for the Boulder and Fort Collins MSAs were less than 8.3%
• The NAR for the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA was 8.3%.
• The NARs for the Pueblo, Colorado Springs, Greeley, and Grand Junction MSAs were greater than 8.3%.

Counties (Most recent data is June 2012).
• Colorado has 64 counties, 25 have NARs greater than the state average and 1 has a NAR equal to the state rate.

• Seventeen of Colorado’s counties are part of the MSAs. Seven of the 17 have NARs greater than the state average.
• Of the 47 rural counties, 28 have NARs less than the state average, 1 has a rate equal to the state NAR, and 18 have NARs below the state average.
• Most of the rural counties with higher than average unemployment rates are on the Western Slope or the south/southwest part of the state.

Cities with populations greater than 25,000 people (Most recent data is June 2012).
• The NARs for Arvada, Boulder, Broomfield, Castle Rock, Fort Collins, Lafayette, Longmont, Loveland, Parker, and Westminster were less than 8.3%
• The NAR for Lakewood was 8.3%.
• The NARs for Aurora, Brighton, Centennial, Colorado Springs, Commerce City, Denver, Englewood, Fountain, Grand Junction, Greeley, Northglenn, Pueblo, Thornton, and Wheat Ridge.

While the state has been steadily adding jobs for two years, there are clearly parts of the state where the economy has not recovered.

For additional information on the Colorado go to https://cber.co/CBEReconomy.html.

Employment Numbers Drive DJIA up by 217 Points

August 7, 2012August 7, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

On August 3rd the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. added 163,000 jobs for the month of July. Employment for May was revised upwards for the second consecutive month to 87,000; however, June was lowered from 80,000 to 64,000. The news drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 217 points.

Through the first seven months of this year, the nation added about 151,000 jobs a month. This compares to a monthly average of 153,000 jobs for the first seven months of 2011. Since the end of the recession the U.S. has added net jobs in 25 months and lost net jobs in 12 months. Employment growth is consistently weak, but since October 2010 it has been consistently positive. About 3.1 million jobs have been added since the end of the recession.

About one-third of the monthly sector employment gains were in the Professional and Business Services, lead by the Temporary Help Services and Computer Systems Design sectors. Jobs were also added in health care, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and wholesale trade. Other major sectors were relatively flat.

On an upbeat note, the Conference Board is projecting stronger growth in the second half of 2012. Annual real output growth for the year will be about 1.9%.

Likewise, the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index calls for Real GDP growth to reach 2% in the latter part of the second half of the year. This index tracks 11 leading and financial indicators. The following four indicators increased – hours worked, real capital goods orders, the real money supply and light-vehicle sales.

On average, Colorado nonfarm employment is about 1.72% of the U.S. total. If Colorado grows at the same pace as the U.S. the upcoming August press release will reflect a gain of about 2,900 jobs.

Great Recession Continues to Play Havoc with State Finances

July 20, 2012July 20, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

The Great Recession has taken its toll on state and local governments. Three years after the end of the Great Recession state and local governments continue to face significant fiscal challenges. In mid-July The State Budget Crisis Task Force released a report headed up by Richard Ravitch and Paul Volcker that examined the challenges to financial stability for California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Texas, and Virginia. Just over 36% of the country’s population lives in these six states.

There are a number of variables (policies, economic structure, demographics, etc.) that differentiate the states; however, the report identified six fiscal threats common to each:
• Medicaid spending growth is reducing funds for other needs.
• Federal deficit reduction will result in lower funds for state coffers.
• Underfunded retirement accounts are a risk for future budgets
• Eroding tax bases and volatile tax revenues jeopardize state finances.
• Local government fiscal challenges may impact state budgets.
• State budget laws and practices hinder fiscal stability.

To show the seriousness of the problem the report evaluated changes in tax revenues generated from the peak-to-trough, the trough to 2011, and peak-to-2011. The changes in percentages are adjusted for inflation; however, they are not adjusted for policy changes. In some cases policy changes have been made that have or will positively impact revenues.

The change from peak-to-trough follows:
• U.S.  -12.0%
• California -14.9%
• Illinois  -18.7%
• New Jersey -17.2%
• New York    -4.3%
• Texas  -15.4%
• Virginia -15.9%

The change for the recovery, or trough-to-2011, follows:
• U.S.  + 5.7%
• California +11.9%
• Illinois  +12.9%
• New Jersey + 2.7%
• New York + 4.3%
• Texas  + 7.4%
• Virginia + 3.9%

The change from peak- to-2011, follows:
• U.S.  – 7.0%
• California – 4.8%
• Illinois  – 8.2%
• New Jersey -15.0%
• New York – 0.2%
• Texas  – 9.2%
• Virginia -12.6%

Colorado was not included in the report; however, the challenges faced by the state are similar. Data from the Colorado Legislative Council’s quarterly reports (June) show the following levels in the state’s gross general fund, expressed in billions:
• FY ending June 2008 $7.7
• FY ending June 2009 $6.7
• FY ending June 2010 $6.5
• FY ending June 2011 $7.1
• FY ending June 2012 $7.6
• FY ending June 2013 $7.8
• FY ending June 2014 $8.2

The Colorado data is not inflation adjusted. On an inflation-adjusted basis the level of the state General Fund will not return to the FY 2008 level until FY 2013 or 2014. The Colorado State Demography Office projects that the state population will increase from 4.9 to 5.4 million people for that period. In other words the state will add half a million people and have the same level of funding as five or six years ago.

It is truly a challenging time to be working in the public sector.

Links to the State Budget Crisis site and the Colorado Legislative Council site are:

U.S. Employment – After Six Months, is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

July 15, 2012July 15, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

On July 6th the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. added 80,000 jobs for the month of June. Employment for May was revised upwards to 77,000.

For the third consecutive year employment started strong, but fizzled. Through the first six months of this year,the nation added about 150,300 jobs a month. This compares to a monthly average of 160,800 jobs in the first half of 2011 and 145,800 jobs during the second half.

Employment increased in manufacturing; professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade. Other sectors were relatively flat.

If you compare the first half of 2012 to the first half of 2011 (150,300 vs. 160,800), the employment situation is clearly worse this year and fewer jobs will be added this year, i.e. the glass is half empty.

A comparison of the second half of 2012 to the first half of 2011 (145,800 vs. 150,300) shows improvement in 2012.

Given projections for weak, but slightly stronger output growth in the second half, that means the glass is half full.

Nationally, is the glass half-empty or half-full?

On average, Colorado nonfarm employment is about 1.72% of the U.S. total. If Colorado grows at the same pace as the U.S. the July 20th press release will reflect a gain of about 1,400 jobs. At the moment, Colorado is currently recovering from the recession at a slightly faster rate than the U.S. It would not be surprising if Colorado added 2,500 to 3,000 jobs for June.

The Colorado Economy is Outperforming the U.S.*

June 26, 2012June 26, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

Earlier this year, President Obama sparked a debate about the health of the economy when he said, “The private sector is doing fine.”

At the national level, the private sector began adding jobs in February 2010 and has consistently added jobs since. The private sector has regained about 48% of the jobs lost in the recession, as compared to the peak in 2008. That part of the debate is clear.

On the other hand, the number of total government jobs has been on the decline since January 2008 (temporary employment associated with the 2010 Census is excluded). Shrinking budgets have caused federal, state, and local agencies to tighten their belts.

Closer to home, Colorado leaders are proudly proclaiming that the state is recovering faster than the U.S. Unfortunately, the sense of optimism displayed in this statement requires an asterisk.

The state’s private sector began adding jobs in January 2010. It has regained about 49% of the jobs lost in the recession, as compared to the peak in 2008. By this measure of improvement, Colorado’s private sector is recovering from the recession at a similar rate as the U.S. Whether that level of growth is “fine” is a debate for a different time. (It should also be noted that current private sector employment is below the peak prior to the 2001 recession.)

Government employment is the difference maker. In contrast to the national level where there is a decline, the number of government jobs in Colorado has increased slightly since 2009. As a result, total Colorado employment has regained jobs lost in the recession at a faster rate than the U.S.*

May Employment Numbers Disappointing, but not Surprising

June 2, 2012June 2, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

Several months after the 2007 recession began, some economists projected the economy would not recover until 2014. Six years sounded like it was much too long, particularly since the country had just gotten back on its feet from the 4 1/2 years of the 2001 recession and recovery. The most recent announcement by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) illustrates how the ongoing lack of primary job creation has caused the recovery to be so long and painful.

On June 1, the monthly BLS press release stated, “Nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000). Employment increased in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade but declined in construction. Employment was little changed in most other major industries.”

If Colorado is growing at the same pace as the U.S., the BLS will announce, later in the month, that the state will post a gain of about 1,200 jobs in April. (Colorado nonfarm employment is about 1.72% of the U.S. total.)

When this release hit the newswires, the equity markets tanked. In addition to the weak job gains, investors were worried about Greece’s debt problems, U.S. debt, the recession in parts of Europe, the slowdown in the Chinese and Indian economies, and much more. While these are clearly legitimate concerns, the decline in employment should not have come as a surprise. Past economic forecasts prepared by The Conference Board foretold of the pending dip.

TCB has forecasted that 2012 output will be at its lowest level in Q2. It stands to reason that subpar output will be accompanied by weak employment growth for April, May, and June. On a positive note, output (consumption, housing starts, and capital spending) is projected to improve slightly in Q3 and Q4. The average rate of output growth for the year will be about 2.2%. This suggests that employment will improve along with the increased output. Next year, 2013, will only be slightly better. The good news is that the trends are in a positive direction.

The recovery will continue to be painfully slow for a number of reasons:
• According to the TCB, output in advanced economies is growing at a rate of 1.3% – worse than the U.S. The emerging economies have stronger growth, 5.6%. Colorado companies that export agricultural and manufactured goods may have greater opportunities in emerging countries.
• The number of federal workers continues to decline.
• The intent of the stimulus funding was to create private sector jobs. Those jobs were supposed to kick in when stimulus funding was reduced. Unfortunately, too few private sector jobs have been created and funding is being diminished. This makes the stimulus efforts appear to be ineffective.
• Although revenues have improved for many state and local governments, their budgets remain tight. In Colorado, state employment is flat and local governments have fewer jobs than one year ago.
• Overall inflation has been kept in check; however, energy prices, and the prices of other commodities, are noticeably higher than when the recession started.
• The construction and housing markets have not rebounded as quickly as anticipated. Colorado construction employment is at the same level as it was in the mid-1990s, although it is finally trending upward.
• Companies have been able to meet their sales targets by investing in capital rather than labor. Productivity gains have allowed companies to maintain a competitive position without adding workers. At some point in the next 18-24 months this will change and companies may be forced to add workers.

The latest job numbers are disappointing, but not surprising. There will be slight improvement in the second half of the year, with continued volatility in 2013.

Continued patience is required. At the earliest, 2014 will be the year when stronger growth can be expected.