Colorado Economy Archives - Page 7 of 20 - Colorado-based Business and Economic Research

Can You Say Boom in Oil Production for Weld County?

April 5, 2014June 17, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

When you mention Greeley, Colorado some people think of the smell of money (the feedlots), others think of the Greeley Stampede, and some are reminded of their days in college at the University of Northern Colorado.

More recently, Greeley has gained notoriety as the leader of the state’s boom in oil production. In 2013 Weld County accounted for 81% of production for the state.

Between 2008 and 2013 oil production has almost tripled in Weld County, increasing from 17.6 million barrels to 51.9 million barrels. For this six year period, production at the state level more than doubled, rising from 29.6 million barrels to 64.1 million barrels.

Between 1999 and 2013 the total oil production for Rio Blanco and Garfield County was unchanged at 6.8 million barrels; however, production in this area was volatile during that period. In 2013 the combined total production of these two counties was the second largest for the state.

Between 1999 and 2013 oil production in the other 33 counties declined from 6.4 million barrels to 5.3 million barrels. Within this period, these 33 counties experienced significant volatility. Production increased in 14 counties, but decreased in 19.

Colorado has 28 counties where there is no oil production.

Boom in Oil Production for Weld County — Colorado Oil Production By Top Counties. Growth led by Weld County

Denver Accounted for 70% of State’s Job Growth in 2013

March 24, 2014June 28, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

In 2013, 68,100 jobs were added, an increase of 2.9% compared to 2012. By comparison the annualized rate of the state’s job growth was 2.0% for 1990 to 2013.

Just over 70% of the jobs added were in the Denver MSA.

Between 1900 and 2013, Denver (1.8%) and Pueblo (1.3%) added jobs at annualized rates below the average for the state (2.0%). The other five MSAs added jobs at faster rates than the state:

Greeley, 2.9%.
Fort Collins, 2.6%.
Grand Junction, 2.4%.
Colorado Springs, 2.2%.
Boulder, 2.1%.

The Denver and Boulder MSAs had growth patterns similar to the state, while the growth patterns for the other 5 MSAs were different. For example, the Greeley and Mesa MSAs patterns were different because of oil and gas activity.

The recovery from the Great Recession was led by Fort Collins and Greeley, followed by Boulder and Denver – then Pueblo. Grand Junction and Colorado Springs have not returned to 2008 peak employment.

State's job growth for 2013 by MSA — Seventy percent of states’ job growth in Denver MSA.

Colorado Added 68,100 Jobs in 2013

March 18, 2014June 28, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released the preliminary employment revisions for 2013. The data showed that Colorado added 68,100 jobs in 2013, an increase of 2.9% compared to 2012.

Growth was led by Construction; Accommodations and Food Services; and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (PST).
None of the Supersectors lost jobs in 2013.
Several organizations were reclassified in the NAICS system during the year. They were moved from private health care and local government sectors to state government. This created artificial or structural levels of change for these 3 sectors.

The number of jobs added in 2013 was the 11th strongest year the state in terms of absolute job growth; however, it was only the 39th best year in terms of relative job growth.

After declines in employment in 2009 and 2010, Colorado added:

36,300 jobs in 2011.
54,400 jobs in 2012.
68,100 jobs in 2013.

Job growth is expected to continue in 2014 at a rate similar to last year.

Year-End Colorado County Unemployment Rates for 2013 Range from 3.2% to 12.3%

March 2, 2014June 28, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The year-end 2013 state unemployment rates were recently released and Colorado posted a not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) rate of 5.9%.

The county unemployment rates were the lowest in:

Yuma 3.2%
Cheyenne 3.2%
Kiowa 3.3%.

The metro counties with the lowest rates were:

Boulder 4.4%
Larimer 4.8%
Broomfield 5.3%

The county unemployment rates weret he highest in:

Costilla 12.3%
Saguache 10.3%
Huerfano 10.2%

The metro counties with the highest rates were:

Pueblo 8.6%
El Paso 7.2%
Mesa 6.9%

county unemployment rate

The NSA year-end county unemployment rates are listed below.

County	%	County	%
Adams County	6.5	Kit Carson County	3.8
Alamosa County	7.0	La Plata County	4.7
Arapahoe County	5.7	Lake County	5.5
Archuleta County	7.0	Larimer County	4.8
Baca County	3.5	Las Animas County	9.0
Bent County	7.5	Lincoln County	4.0
Boulder County	4.4	Logan County	4.7
Broomfield County	5.3	Mesa County	6.9
Chaffee County	5.6	Mineral County	6.8
Cheyenne County	3.2	Moffat County	5.2
Clear Creek County	5.3	Montezuma County	7.0
Conejos County	9.3	Montrose County	8.5
Costilla County	12.3	Morgan County	5.2
Crowley County	9.6	Otero County	8.0
Custer County	6.6	Ouray County	4.9
Delta County	7.3	Park County	6.0
Denver County	6.2	Phillips County	4.0
Dolores County	6.4	Pitkin County	5.8
Douglas County	4.7	Prowers County	5.0
Eagle County	5.2	Pueblo County	8.6
El Paso County	7.2	Rio Blanco County	4.7
Elbert County	4.6	Rio Grande County	8.6
Fremont County	8.1	Routt County	4.5
Garfield County	5.8	Saguache County	10.3
Gilpin County	5.4	San Juan County	6.4
Grand County	4.6	San Miguel County	5.0
Gunnison County	5.5	Sedgwick County	4.1
Hinsdale County	3.4	Summit County	4.1
Huerfano County	10.2	Teller County	6.9
Jackson County	3.6	Washington County	4.0
Jefferson County	5.4	Weld County	6.1
Kiowa County	3.3	Yuma County	3.2

Number of Colorado Business Establishments Remains Well Below 2007 Peak

February 23, 2014June 7, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the number of business establishments as well as the number of employees. An establishment is defined as a single physical location where business is conducted or where services or industrial operations are performed. By contrast, a firm is comprised of establishments.

The number of Colorado business establishments peaked at 180,934 in Q3 2007. As a result of the Great Recession, the number of Colorado business establishments declined to 168,939 in Q1 2011.

There has been steady growth in the number of business establishments since bottoming out in 2011; however, it will be several more years before a return to the 2007 peak. In other words, the effects of the Great Recession are still being felt despite the state’s job recovery.

The number of business establishments in Colorado remains below the 2007 peak. — The number of Colorado business establishments remains below the 2007 peak.

Colorado Population to Increase by 90,000 in 2014

February 17, 2014June 12, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The Colorado population increases and decreases are a result of the natural rate of change (births minus deaths) and the change in net migration (people moving in the state minus people moving out of the state).

Over the past two decades the natural change gradually increased from 31,400 in 1991 to a peak of 40,230 in 2006.

Changes resulting from net migration are closely tied to the strength of the economy. For example, there were five years, from 1986 to 1990, when net migration was negative. More people moved out of state than moved into the state to escape a regional recession. During the past two recessions, net migration declined because it was difficult for people to move and net migration remained positive.

The Colorado population will increase by about 90,000 in 2014. The natural rate of change will rise to 37,000. Net migration will increase dramatically to 53,000, the highest level of change since 2001.

Changes in Colorado population — The Colorado population is changing at a faster rate because of increased net migration.

Relief at the Pump – Coloradans Saved $56 in 2013!

January 17, 2014June 28, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

Back in the day… a Hershey’s candy bar cost a nickel and a person needed a dime to get a Coke from the vending machine. (Diet Coke didn’t exist). Nickels and dimes had value back in the day.

And…it cost $.21 for a gallon of gasoline. Not only that, an attendant filled up the car, checked the oil, and washed the windows. Back in the day a car was taken to a service station, not a gas station.

Given that perspective, the current relief at the pump is still painful.

As we ring out the old year and ring in the new it is now possible to compare the annual costs of gas for Colorado and the U.S. This calculation assumes that 15 gallons of gas were purchased each week at the average price for all blends. The comparison follows:

Colorado
- The 2013 cost was $2,706.
- The 2012 cost was $2,762.

It cost $56 less to purchase gas in Colorado during 2013 than 2012.

United States
- The 2013 cost was $2,782.
- The 2012 cost was $2,874.

It cost $92 less to purchase gas in the U.S. during 2013 than 2012.

In 2013 it cost $76 less to purchase gas in Colorado than the U.S.

How is that for relief at the pump?

If you are a Coloradan, how did you spend the $56 dollars you saved in 2013?
©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Issues That Will Present Opportunities and Challenges for Colorado in 2014

January 11, 2014June 28, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The improving global economy will support broad-based growth of the U.S. economy and vice versa. In turn, Colorado will enjoy its strongest job growth in over a decade. Click here to review the CBER forecast and other economic reports. Some of the opportunities and challenges for 2014 are listed below.

Opportunities

Both Global and U.S. Real GDP are projected to increase at rates greater than 2013. Will that translate into a 4th consecutive year of rising job growth for the state?
After the dysfunctional 2013 Colorado legislative session, a threat by counties to secede from the state, and two successful recalls, are legislators ready to work together for the good of the state?
How much will the passage of Amendment 64 benefit the state fiscally? Will tax revenues exceed enforcement, social, and opportunity costs?
Primary jobs are essential to the economy because they create wealth and usually pay higher than average wages. Will 2014 be the year that there is a stronger increase in primary jobs?
Will Colorado’s strategy to attract millenials prove to be an effective economic development strategy?

Challenges

Are global financial sectors in the mature economies stable? Are financial bubbles looming on the horizon?
Will U.S. monetary policy be conducive to growth of the global economy? Will Janet Yellen be able to unwind Quantitative Easing without drastically raising inflation or the causing a downturn in the equity markets?
Is U.S. public and personal public debt excessive? Will Americans manage their finances more responsibly?
Will the off-year elections bring about more conflict, change, or more of the same?
Will gun-control legislation, anti-fracking efforts, energy legislation that hurt rural Colorado, and other anti-business activity create the impression that Colorado is not business-friendly?
What does Mother Nature have in store for Colorado in 2014?
Will 2014 be the year Colorado begins adding establishments at a significant level?

The most critical item on the list of opportunities and challenges…Will Peyton Manning bring a Super Bowl to Denver in 2014? Go Broncos!

Jobs and Output Data Point to Stronger Growth for Colorado

December 20, 2013December 20, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released November jobs data for Colorado. As measured by increased jobs and decreased unemployment, the update showed the improvement in the economy is geographically broad-based. Most states are enjoying the recovery!

Specifically the highlights from the jobs data are:

Wage and salary employment increased in 43 states and decreased in 7 states and the District of Columbia.
Decreased unemployment rates were recorded in 42 states and the District of Columbia compared to a year ago, 1 state was flat and 7 states were higher. Nationally, November unemployment registered 7.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from a year ago.
In Colorado the November unemployment rate was down 1.1 percentage points from the same time last year (7.6% compared to 6.5%).

A stronger national economy bodes well for Colorado.

Earlier in the month the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated its projection models had understated the rate of job growth in the state in 2013. Latest estimates project the state will actually add 60,000 to 65,000 jobs this year.

More good news came today when the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q3 GDP upward to 4.1%. Exports and business and consumer spending were stronger than anticipated.

The stronger jobs and output data suggest the impacts of sequestration, the partial government shutdown, and the fallout from the earlier budget and debt ceiling debates may have had less of a net impact than originally thought.

For the first time in 6 or 7 years, Colorado and the U.S. will be entering a new year with a solid foundation for growth. If that foundation remains in place, there is reason to believe that Colorado will add at least 65,000 jobs in 2014.

Colorado Jobs Data for October – Mixed Message

November 24, 2013November 24, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

The recent BLS jobs report for Colorado had mixed news.

The good news is that Colorado will see solid job growth this year. The bad news is that jobs are being added at a slower rate than earlier in the year.

On the street, most Colorado business owners are not pleased with government leadership, but they are generally upbeat about the economy.

The unemployment rate was flat from February through August. The slight declines in September and October are a sign that the rate continues to slowly move downward. BLS reports the state rate is lower than the rate for the U.S.; however, it is not statistically different than the U.S. (The latest state rate is 6.8% compared to 7.3% for the U.S.)

On a positive note, the number of unemployed workers has fallen to 185,500. This is the lowest number of unemployed since February 2009; however, it is more than twice the pre-recession number.

The wage and salary data is mostly positive. The average number of jobs added for the first 10 months of 2013 is about 56,400 greater than the same period last year. Unfortunately, jobs have been added at a declining rate since March.

Colorado is on track to add about 55,000 jobs for 2013, an increase of 2.3%. The question is, “Given this downward trend in the number of jobs being added, what lies ahead for 2014?”

All jobs are important; however, there is concern there are too few jobs being added that “create” other jobs or bring in wealth from the outside. The lack of a sufficient number of new primary jobs may be the reason for the decreasing rate of growth. State and local economic developers are working hard to address this issue.

It is unlikely the state numbers were noticeably impacted by the September flooding and the limited Government shutdown. The flooding clearly had a negative impact on the local economies and the limited government shutdown may have caused inconvenience for cities and companies that are heavily dependent on federal funding. These events will likely have a greater impact on overall output than employment.

For the most part, the latest jobs report bodes well for the state.