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Proved Oil Reserve Leaders have Lowered Their Unemployment Rate Faster than U.S., Except for Colorado and California

In 2007 nine of the top ten states for proved oil reserves had an unemployment rate lower than the U.S. rate.

In 2012, nine of these top ten states had an unemployment rate lower than the U.S. rate, although the Colorado rate was lower by only 0.1 percentage points.

For the U.S., the gap between the 2012 and 2007 unemployment rate was 3.5 percentage points (8.1% – 4.6%).  The percentage point gap for the top 10 states with proven oil reserves is:

  • 5.1 California
  • 4.2 Colorado
  • 3.4 New Mexico
  • 3.1 Utah
  • 2.6 Wyoming
  • 2.4 Texas
  • 1.7 Louisiana
  • 1.1 Oklahoma
  • 0.9 Alaska
  • 0.0 North Dakota

In other words, the economies in 8 of the 10 leading oil reserve states experienced faster reduction in unemployment rates, presumably in part because of the growth in the extractive industries. California and Colorado are the exceptions. For the state of Colorado, it is reasonable to ask the question, “Is Colorado’s high gap a result of more stringent regulation and growing opposition to fracking?”

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Colorado – Leader in Extractive Industries

About 94% of the U.S. proved oil reserves are located in 10 states, including Colorado. The state is ranked 9th with 423 billion barrels, well behind Texas, with 7,014 billion barrels.

Eighty-nine of the country’s 139 refineries are located in the top ten states for proved oil reserves… Sixty-two refineries are located in Texas, Louisiana, and California. Colorado has two refineries.

Colorado is a leader in the extractive industries, which has also made it a focal point for opposition to the industry.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Agriculture Output Trended Downward 2009 to 2012 – Will There Be a Turn Around in 2013

Real Agriculture output peaked in 2009 for both Colorado and the U.S. and it has trended downward for the period 2009 to 2012.

Between 1997 and 2012, the Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics show:

  • The annualized rate of growth for U.S. Private Sector Real GDP (sum of all states) was 2.3% and the U.S. Agriculture sector increased annually at a rate of 1.7%.
  • The compound growth rate for Colorado Private Sector Real GDP was 3.1%. The Colorado Agriculture sector increased annually at a rate of 1.5%.

Although Colorado private sector output expanded at a significantly faster rate than the U.S.between 1997 and 2012, Agriculture output for the state grew at a slightly slower rate.

Between 2009 and 2012, the data shows:

  • The annualized rate of growth for U.S. Private Sector Real GDP (sum of all states) was 2.5% and the U.S. Agriculture sector decreased at an annualized rate of -6.9%.
  • The compound growth rate for Colorado Private Sector Real GDP was 2.2%. The Colorado Agriculture sector declined annually at a rate of 11.7%.

Farmers and ranchers have their fingers crossed that the downward trend will be reversed in 2013.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

U.S. Job Recovery Slower than Colorado

Coloradans breathed a sigh of relief when the BLS released June data showing the state’s wage and salary employment finally returned to the 2008 peak. (For more information about the Colorado situation, click here.)

Nationally, it is a much different story. The U.S. is still about a year away from returning to the 2008 job peak.

U.S. employment topped out at 138.1 million in January 2008. By February 2010, the number of wage and salary jobs had plunged to 129.3 million, a decrease of 8.8 million workers.

At the end of July 2013, 6.7 million jobs had been added since the trough and employment had reached 136.0 million. Slightly more than 2.0 million jobs are needed to reach the pre-recession peak, or about 77% of the jobs have been recovered.

Over the past year, jobs have been added at a rate of about 190,000 per month. If they continue to be added at that rate, it will take another 10 months (May 2014) before the pre-recession peak is reached.

As a result of the Great Recession, the number of unemployed workers jumped from 7.7 million in January 2008 to 15.4 million in October 2010, i.e. the number of unemployed workers doubled. Since October 2010, the number of unemployed has declined to 11.5 million, a decrease of only 3.9 million.

For many Americans, the recovery from the Great Recession has been painful. For another group, the recovery will never happen.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

CDLE Data – Many Have Not Recovered from Great Recession

With great excitement the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment announced that the state’s wage and salary employment finally returned to its peak in 2008.

It took five years for the state to return to the pre-recession employment levels.

Ugh!

A closer look at the unemployment data is even more disturbing. As a result of the downturn, the number of unemployed workers increased by 123,500. To date, this number has only decreased by 51,300. In other words, the number of unemployed workers is 72,200 greater than five years ago.

Clearly, there are many in the state who have not recovered from the Great Recession and the addition of 150,000+ jobs!

For additional details about the performance of the state economy, go to the cber.co website or click here.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Colorado Job Growth Increasing at a Declining Rate

Colorado job gains remained solid in June; however, job growth is increasing at a declining rate. Average employment through June 2013 is 59,000 jobs greater than the same period last year.

If the data is evaluated on a quarterly basis, the number of jobs added leveled off for the period Q4 2012 to Q2 2013. In fact, there was a decrease between Q2 and Q1 of 2013.

Q4 2012   58,600

Q1 2013   61,800

Q2 2013   56,300.

On average, about 4,900 jobs have been added each month for the past three quarters.

For the period Q2 2012 to Q2 2013, the number of jobs added at the national level appears to have reached a plateau. Nationally, there was an increase in the job gains between Q2 and Q1 of 2013.

Q2 2012    2,158,000

Q3 2012    2,217,000

Q4 2012    2,188,000

Q1 2013    2,086,700

Q2 2013    2,177,300.

On average, about 180,500 jobs have been added each month for the past five quarters.

In both cases, the level of job growth is modest and expected to remain that way in the near term.

For additional details about the performance of the state economy, go to the cber.co website or click here.


©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Construction Output Declined for Eleven Years – Reversed in 2012

Real GDP for the Construction sector finally rebounded in 2012, after decreasing for eleven years, 2001 to 2011.

Between 1997 and 2012, the Bureau of Economic Analysis statistics show:

  • The annualized rate of growth for U.S. Private Sector Real GDP (sum of all states) was 2.3% and the U.S. Construction sector declined annually at a rate of -1.5%.
  • The compound growth rate for Colorado Private Sector Real GDP was 3.1%. The Colorado Construction sector declined annually at a rate of -2.4%.

For this period, the Colorado Construction sector was hit much harder than the U.S. In addition, the recovery was much slower for Colorado.

Between 2009 and 2012, the data shows:

  • The annualized rate of growth for U.S. Private Sector Real GDP (sum of all states) was 2.5% and the U.S. Construction sector increased at an annualized rate of 0.5%.
  • The compound growth rate for Colorado Private Sector Real GDP was 2.2%. The Colorado Construction sector declined annually at a rate of -1.4%.

Preliminary data suggests that 2013 Colorado Construction output will again be positive and that it will be stronger than the nation.


©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Businessweek Rankings – Top Areas of Study for CU Leeds School of Business Near Bottom of Rankings

Colleges and universities are held accountable for efficiently providing educational services by state agencies and private companies, such as Businessweek and U.S. News and World Report. In late March, Bloomberg Businessweek produced their 2013 ratings for 124 undergraduate business programs (additional information can be found at www.businessweek.com). The table below shows the rankings by academic specialty for Notre Dame, the top ranked school, and the three Colorado undergraduate business programs that were rated.

The profile for each business school included its top study areas. These are listed below along with their ranking by specialty.

Notre Dame Mendoza

  • 2             Accounting
  • NA          Consulting
  • 4             Finance
  • 4             Management of Information Systems
  • 65           Marketing

DU Daniels

  • 22           Accounting
  • 39           Finance
  • NA          Hotel Administration
  • 60           International Business
  • 100         Marketing
  • NA          Ethics, Social Responsibility, General Business

CU Leeds

  • NA          Certificate programs (Real Estate, Entrepreneurship, and Sustainability)
  • 119         Accounting
  • 73           Finance
  • NA          Human Resource Management
  • 121         Marketing
  • 114         Operations Management

CSU Business School

  • 97           Accounting
  • 84           Finance
  • 113         Management of Information Systems
  • 86           Marketing
  • 42           Operations Management

As expected, Mendoza’s top areas of study were also highly ranked, signifying that it is an elite school. At the other end of the spectrum, the top areas of study for CU Leeds were ranked in the lower half of all schools, between 73rd and 121st. This is an indication that it is a third or fourth-tier school. DU Daniels and CSU fall somewhere in between.

These rankings show the depth and quality of the elite programs and point out deficiencies of the lower ranked schools. While these rankings point out strengths and weaknesses of American business schools, the ultimate measure is whether it meets the needs of the individual students.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Policy and Prices Impact Output for Extractive Industries – Is Colorado Closed for Business?

The extractive industries are an important and visible part of Colorado’s economy. In 2012, Colorado’s GDP was 1.76% of the U.S. GDP and Colorado’s Mining sector output was 3.58% of the U.S. Mining sector output.  In other words, Colorado’s extractive industries critical components of both the state and the national economy.

Between 1997 and 2012, there were stark differences in the state and national output for the extractive industries and the private sector.

  • The annualized rate of growth for U.S. Private Sector Real GDP (sum of all states) was 2.3% and the extractive industries were -0.6%.
  • The compound growth rate for Colorado Private Sector Real GDP was 3.1% and the extractive industries grew at a rate of 3.6%.

Nationally sector output trended downward from 1997 to 2005 and trended upward from 2005 to 2009. Between 2009 and 2012, sector output trended downward again.

In Colorado sector output  trended upward from 1997 to 2009; however, it has trended downward since 2009.

  • The annualized rate of growth for U.S. Private Sector Real GDP (sum of all states) was 2.5% and extractive industry output was -2.0%.
  • The compound growth rate for Colorado Private Sector Real GDP was 2.2% and extractive industry output was -4.0%.

The variance in output has been caused by changes in prices, supply and demand, and policy. Recently, the latter has had the most detrimental impact on the industry in Colorado.  Policy and anti-fracking efforts are likely to further suppress output in the months ahead. In addition to reducing output, this will create the perception that Colorado is not a business-friendly state.


©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

DU is Top Business School, CSU is Best Buy, Leeds School Lags

On March 20th, Bloomberg Businessweek published the 2013 rankings for 124 undergraduate business programs (www.businessweek.com). Much to the chagrin of alumni and staff at the Dyson, Olin, Wharton, and Carroll schools, the Mendoza School of Business topped the charts for the fourth consecutive year.

Once again the rankings for Colorado universities showed the DU Daniels School is the top ranked school, #68, followed by CSU, which moved up in the ranks to #89. Once again the University of Colorado Leeds School of Business brought up the rear. This past year CU Leeds dropped in the rankings from #92 to #101, out of 124 schools.

On the lighter side, the three Colorado business schools were ranked third (DU), fourth (CSU), and fifth (CU) as he best business schools for ski bunnies. The University of Utah and BYU claimed the top slots.

The table, below, compares a portion of the Businessweek ratings for the Daniels, Leeds, and CSU business schools.  The data covers three basic areas: cost, diversity/SAT scores, and quality/rankings in key areas.

Cost – The cost to attend these schools for four years, assuming an annual increase of 5% each year, is:
• Notre Dame – Mendoza  $241,000.
• University of Denver – Daniels  $223,000
• CU – Leeds (out-of-state) – $209,000
• CU – Leeds (in-state) – $119,000
• CSU – (out of state) – $151,000
• CSU – (in state) – $83,000.
The cost for an out-of-state student to attend CU Leeds is slightly less than Mendoza or Daniels, yet the data suggests the quality of the degree is significantly less.

Diversity/SAT of Students – The Daniels School has a higher percentage of female and international students than its peers. It and Mendoza have a greater mix of minorities.

There is no difference between the CU Leeds and CSU average SAT scores and both are significantly lower than the Daniels and Mendoza schools.  There are bright students at all schools, but the caliber of students at CU Leeds and CSU is lower.

Quality/Rankings in Key Areas – CU Leeds has positioned itself as an expensive program that focuses on serving a large number of students by having large class sizes, i.e. the primary goal is quantity. Of the 124 programs, CU Leeds is the 21st largest. Only 6 of the top 25 schools have more students than CU Leeds; these schools are ranked 9th, 13th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 25th, i.e. quantity is secondary to quality at the top schools. Revenue generation for the University of Colorado is a priority of the Leeds program.

Unfortunately, CU Leeds is ranked 107th in the student survey and 92nd in academic quality. It only received a grade of B in teaching quality. In 2007 a $38 million renovation of Koelbel Hall was completed and the staff was reorganized to better meet the needs of the students. These changes fell short, as yet CU Leeds was only rated B for facilities and services.

A final consideration is the average wages for graduating students. CU Leeds is slightly higher than its Colorado counterparts, but not enough to warrant the extra cost of tuition and the lower quality of education.  Most likely the average wages for DU Daniels students is lower because of the number of students that study in hotel management, an industry with lower wages.

It is possible for students to obtain a quality business degree at any of Colorado’s colleges and universities. Rankings such as those produced by Businessweek are a valuable tool for identifying the strengths and weaknesses of various schools and determining which ones are the best match for each individual’s needs.

@Copyright 2011 by CBER.