Tag: Tourism

Garden of the Gods – Visitors from 36 States

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When out-of-state tourists and staycationers compile their short list of things to do and places to go in Colorado they think about activities such as skiing, rafting, golf, tennis, hiking, or biking. The top spots on their list include such gems such as Mesa Verde, Rocky Mountain National Park, and the Great Sand Dunes. Destinations include Aspen, Steamboat, Vail, Telluride, or Estes Park.

garden of the gods 170 kissing camels
The Garden of the Gods Kissing Camels

Colorado Springs and the Garden of the Gods are seldom at the head of the list of places in Colorado.. They appear to be like Don Rickles – they don’t get no respect; however, the following metrics posted in the Garden of the Gods Visitor and Nature Center suggest that may not be the case:
• The center is commemorating its 20th year of service to the park:
• 12.5 million visitors have passed through the center during that time.
• 121,876 school kids have visited the center.
• 7,254 tour buses have stopped by.
• Volunteers have logged 181,935 hours of service.
• $2.3 million has been donated to the park from the Garden of the Gods Foundation.

garden of the gods

A more impressive metric came from an informal, unscientific “back of the envelope” study by two high school girls who identified license plates on vehicles from 36 states in and around the park. The survey was conducted over a span of three and a half hours. The states included:
• Alaska
• Arizona
• Arkansas
• California
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Dakota
• Florida
• Georgia
• Illinois
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kansas
• Louisiana
• Maine
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Michigan
• Minnesota
• Missouri
• Montana
• Nebraska
• Nevada
• New Mexico
• New York
• North
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Pennsylvania
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Texas
• Utah
• Virginia
• Washington
• Wyoming
The duo conducting the study estimated that inside the park, the out of state plates outnumbered the Colorado plates.

Visitors to the park enjoyed the scenery and natural beauty of the area. In addition they hiked, biked, climbed, picnicked, and snapped photographs.

From an economic perspective, opportunities to spend money within the park were limited to the Visitor and Nature Center at one of the entrances and the Trading Post inside the park. In other words, the contributions to the local economy occurred in the restaurants, hotels, gasoline stations, and retail stores in Colorado Springs, Manitou Springs, and other towns in the region.

Though the license plate data is unscientific, it illustrated the strength of Colorado and Colorado Springs as tourism attractions. Clearly, Coloradans are not the only ones who think the state is a great place to live, work, and play!

For more details check out the Garden of the Gods website.  Better yet, the next time you are in Colorado Springs, take your camera, hiking shoes, and your Ipad and count the number of out-of-state plates.

garden of the gods 186 2

 

National Park System Crucial to Colorado Tourism

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The National Park Service website indicates the Colorado tourism industry benefits from 13 national parks. These sites attract more than 6 million visitors annually with an economic benefit of about $375 million to Colorado.

Park Service Type Name Location State(s)
National Historic Site Bent's Old Fort LaJunta CO
National Park Black Canyon Of The Gunnison Montrose CO
River Corridor Cache La Poudre Colorado CO
National Historic Trail California Trail CO
National Monument Colorado Fruita CO
National Recreation Area Curecanti Gunnison CO
National Monument Dinosaur Vernal, UT & Dinosaur, CO CO and UT
National Monument Florissant Fossil Beds Florissant CO
National Park & Preserve Great Sand Dunes Mosca CO
National Monument Hovenweep Blanding, UT & Cortez, CO CO and UT
National Park MesaVerde Cortez and Mancos CO
National Historic Trail Old Spanish Trail AZ,CA,CO,NV,NM,UT
National Historic Trail Pony Express Trail CA,KS,MO,NE,NV,UT,WY
National Park Rocky Mountain Estes Park and Grand Lake CO
National Historic Site Sand Creek Massacre Kiowa County CO
National Historic Trail Santa Fe Trail CO,KS,MO,NM,OK
National Monument Yucca House Cortez CO

Colorado tourism

Headwaters Economics recently released their 2014 interactive economic impact report for the entire NPS system. In 2014 the 11 Colorado sites, that data is tracked for, had 6.1 million visitors with spending of $379 million.

Site Visitations Spending Jobs Income from Spending
Bent's Old Fort 24,555 $1,377 21 $546
Black Canyon Of The Gunnison 183,046 $10,948 148 $5,093
Colorado 416,862 $25,301 386 $9,972
Curecanti 931,368 $38,729 522 $16,391
Dinosaur 250,624 $14,298 194 $5,736
Florissant Fossil Beds 63,298 $3,550 55 $1,946
Great Sand Dunes 271,774 $15,755 234 $6,104
Hovenweep 26,808 $1,620 23 $622
Mesa Verde 501,563 $49,982 742 $19,580
Rocky Mountain 3,434,750 $217,020 3,282 $123,180
Sand Creek Massacre 7,402 $415 7 $113
Total 6,112,050 $378,995 5,614 $189,283

Locals are an important part of the Colorado tourism sector; however, they benefit from the industry much more than they contribute to it. In 2014 the Headwaters data showed:
• Colorado locals accounted for 11.1% of NPS tourism visitors.
• NPS Tourism spending by locals was 3.3% of the total for Colorado.
• About 1.2% of NPS tourism jobs were supported by local tourism spending.
• Locals accounted for 2.7% of the NPS income generated from tourism spending.

The contribution of NPS visitors to the Colorado economy is impressive; however, a recent report by Dean Runyon showed it is a small part of the total Colorado tourism industry. The report stated that a record 71.3 million visitors spent $18.6 billion in Colorado in 2014.yall

The next time you hear a Texas accent that sounds out of place, have an out-of-state driver cut you off because they are lost, or have to follow a Winnebago up a mountain pass at 25 mph – be glad they are here. Their spending in our state helps support our infrastructure and make our lifestyle even better.

Colorado Lost 700 Jobs – Don’t Believe It

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Earlier this morning, the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment issued a press release stating that Colorado lost 700 jobs in August compared to the previous month. The data series was adjusted.

The data does not reflect what is happening on the street. It fails to echo the confidence that consumers have in the national and state economy.

• The ISM indices for manufacturing and the services sector are positive.
• While some of the construction data is flat or down, NAHB data is up, suggesting better data in the months ahead.
• On 9/26, the Q2 GDP will be revised. The third estimate is expected to be revised upwards to 4.8ish.

Locally, there is even stronger reason to be optimistic.

• The state made it through the summer without any major fires, floods, or other natural disasters (knock on wood).
• The number of business establishments continues to increase. The leaders in relative growth are Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Boulder.
• Universities and K-12 are better funded than a year ago.
• Retail sales tax collections up, as evidenced by increased budgets for the state and many municipalities.
• The State General Fund has collected more revenue, a reflection of improved business and personal income taxes.
• The Colorado Tourism Office has reported a record level of tourism visitation and spending for the summer months.
• Developers are optimistic – believably optimistic.

From a methodological perspective, there are multiple reasons why the data will likely be revised upwards next month and later in March 2015. While it is possible the data turned down slightly in August, it is difficult to believe there were seasonally adjusted job losses in August.

Colorado Loses 700 Jobs

 

U.S. and Colorado Economy Remain Solid

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National Economy
The U.S. economy remains strong, with solid employment and output growth.

• Nationally, employment remains strong, despite slower than expected job growth in August. The non-seasonally adjusted data shows that an average of 215,000 jobs has been added each month through eight months. This means the U.S. will add about 2.5 million jobs this year.
• Output remains solid. The first Q2 estimate showed real GDP growth of 4.0%. That was revised upwards to 4.2%. It is possible the third estimate, due later this month, could be revised even higher to 5.0%.
• At the most recent FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve provided no surprises. Their stance on the economy indicates:
o The rate of inflation remains below target.
o Quantitative easing will come to an end.
o There is slack in the labor market.
o Interest rates will remain low in the near term; however, once rate increases begin they will accelerate faster than previously anticipated. It is likely rates will begin increasing in mid-2015.
• The outlook for construction is positive.  Single family building permits have been flat; however the NAHB index shows that homebuilder sentiment is much stronger than the permits data. This suggests greater activity, and stronger data, will occur in the future.
• The unemployment rate, number of unemployed, and the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits continue on a downward trend. The economy should remain healthy as long as fewer people are unemployed and an increasing number of Americans are working.

Colorado Economy

The performance of the Colorado economy is closely tied to changes in U.S. job and output growth. Since the end of the recession Colorado job growth has outperformed the U.S. because of its mix of industries. The state is on track to add jobs at an accelerated rate for the fourth consecutive year.  Job growth this year will be about 3.0%.

• The extractive industries have been a major direct and indirect contributor to the job growth. As well, the extractive industries were responsible for about one-third of the state’s GDP growth in 2013. The extractive industries are important to the economies of about half the counties in the state. From a jobs perspective, the sector is small, but the number of workers will increase by at least 9% this year compared to 2013.
• So far this year, between 10% and 12% of the jobs added in Colorado are construction jobs. The number of jobs will increase by at least 6.5% compared to the same period last year. Growth in the sector might be constrained by a lack of trained workers in specialized construction occupations such as plumbers, HVAC workers, and electricians. The home and infrastructure subsectors also include distinct specialized occupations.
• Tourism has enjoyed a banner year in Colorado. It began with good snow and a strong ski season. The good snow season also meant plenty of water for mountain rafting and summer tourism activities. Special events, such as the USA Pro Challenge, and the lack of fires and flooding provided the foundation for a strong summer season. Leisure and hospitality job growth is poised to be at least 4.6% greater in 2014 than last year. The sector will be responsible for adding about 19% of the jobs in the state this year.  The sector plays a significant part of the economy in all 64 counties.
• The healthcare sector will add more than 10,000 workers in 2014 and expand at a rate of more than 4.3%. The sector continues to face challenges finding workers in many occupations and in rural areas.
• The growth of the professional, scientific, and technical sector is important to the state because a portion of these companies are directly or indirectly a part of the state’s advanced technology sector. The lifestyle of Downtown Denver and Colorado is attracting millennials to jobs in these sectors. The growth of in the sector will be at a rate of about 4.5% in 2014. It is important to note that many of these occupations pay higher than average wages and the sector is adding jobs at an increasing rate.

 

Colorado Remains on Track to Add at Least 71,000 Jobs in 2014

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The state remains on track to add at least 71,000 jobs this year.

The BLS released their monthly employment report for Colorado earlier today. Rather than prepare a sector-by-sector analysis, the following comments evaluate the situation from 30,000 feet.

Colorado has had the perfect winter – snow in the mountains, but not so much that people couldn’t get to there to spend their money and ski. The state has had an excellent ski season which bodes well for hospitality industry employment. Good snow also means good rafting for the summer season.

A strong ski season also bodes well for the construction industry. Nationally, hotels and resorts had delayed repairs and expansions because of the recession. Upgrades and new construction that have been on hold are likely to occur in the months ahead.

A trip to DIA shows the importance of tourism to the state. Progress is being made on the Westin hotel located at the south end of the terminal. As well there are signs the light rail will soon be a reality. That will make it easier for travelers to connect to the metro area, which will further enhance Denver’s image as a place to hold conventions and conduct business.

It also appears the Gaylord project has cleared its latest set of hurdles and will begin construction soon. Shuttle drivers are anxiously telling their passengers where the project will be located.

The fact that Denver is on the short list for the Republican National Convention speaks to the increased reputation Denver is gaining as a place to host conventions. The fact that Colorado is a blue/purple state makes it an even more attractive destination. Wouldn’t the Republicans love to unseat the Democrats at a convention held in the Democrat’s backyard?

The snow and the cold of the winter season have not stymied construction along the Front Range. The state added over 10,000 construction jobs in 2013. Job growth has continued to be strong in 2014. Moving forward, the industry may be challenged to find sufficient workers, as unemployment in the industry has decreased substantially.

The construction industry will remain strong, with most of the growth coming from private sector investment. Despite improvement in tax revenues, the public sector is still not in a position to fund construction – such as schools or institutions.

Road construction has been held back by limited tax collections. One downside to improved fuel efficiency is less fuel is being consumed. The tax rates have not increased to support maintenance and repairs to our transportation infrastructure.

Residential construction will continue to improve, but will not approach the rates of growth that occurred prior to the Great Recession. For a variety of reasons, multifamily growth will remain strong. For example, young buyers prefer to live in the metro areas vs. the suburbs and many of them have high debt levels.

Obamacare enrollment has finally come to a close. For better or worse, the program is officially moving forward and healthcare organizations have greater clarity about how they can operate. They will be challenged by thin margins and will have to constantly be on top of their operations to remain profitable.

The industry continues to evolve rapidly. For example a focus for many organizations is bringing health care to local neighborhoods through urgent care and emergency facilities. The ACA will drastically impact the way healthcare organizations deliver services.

The oil and gas industry will continue to be extremely strong in Northern Colorado. In 2013 the state produced 64 million barrels of oil and about 80% was produced in Weld County. Colorado is one of the country’s top 10 states in terms of oil reserves. There are smaller counties that have enjoyed growth in oil production because of the Niobrara oil field, i.e. the industry is benefitting many parts of the state. Finally, the natural gas industry is strong on the western slope.

The state remains on track to add at least 71,000 jobs this year.

 

Lack of Primary Job Creation May Slow Future Employment Growth

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released data showing that, on average, Colorado added almost 62,000 jobs for the first four months of the year compared to the same period last year.

As has been the case in the past, the tourism and healthcare industries led the continued expansion.  The top five sectors for growth were:

  • Accommodations and Food Services
  • Healthcare
  • B-to-B (excluding Employment Services)
  • Retail
  • Construction

About 64% of the jobs added can be attributed to these sectors.

While it is good news that jobs are being added in most sectors, the expansion may be slowed by the lack of primary/high-tech jobs – jobs that create other jobs or bring in investment from the outside. The following sectors serve as a proxy for “primary job creation.”

  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical
  • Corporate Headquarters (MCE)
  • Manufacturing
  • Information

So far this year, these sectors are responsible for adding about 10% of the jobs.

All jobs are important and interrelated, but not all jobs are equal in terms of their ability to create other jobs.

A review of the Colorado economy after four months can be found by clicking here.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Warmer Weather – A Source of Job Creation?

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Recently, a local economist hypothesized that the recent strength of the Colorado economy was correlated with a warmer winter. The rationale for this hypothesis was that warmer weather may have benefitted outdoor sports such as golf courses, biking, rollerblading, and so forth. In addition, the economist surmised that retail sales would be stronger because warmer weather was more conducive to shopping and increased construction activity.

On one hand, the warmer weather theory sounded plausible because the weather “seemed” milder this winter, but on the other hand it sounded like it was full of hot air.

Premise 1 – The winter was warmer.
If heating degree days are the defining factor for how cold a winter is, then the period October 2011 through March 2012 was negligibly colder than the prior year. For this six month period, the most recent October, December, and February were colder, the two Novembers were similar, and January and March were warmer this year. (A larger number means it is colder, more heat is needed to heat a building).

October 2010         174 heating degree days
November 2010     645 heating degree days
December 2010     789 heating degree days
January 2011          925 heating degree days
February 2011        863 heating degree days
March 2011             513 heating degree days
Total                      3,909 heating degree days

October 2011          312 heating degree days
November 2011      636 heating degree days
December 2011  1,058 heating degree days
January 2012           763 heating degree days
February 2012         935 heating degree days
March 2012              364 heating degree days
Total                       4,068 heating degree days

Possibly it seemed warmer, because there didn’t seem to be snow on the ground that often. A comparison of snowfall for the metro area shows that there was 2.5 times as much snow this past winter as the prior year.

October 2010         none
November 2010    1.5 inches
December 2010    3.3 inches
January 2011         8.0 inches
February 2011       5.3 inches
March 2011            2.5 inches
Total                      20.6 inches

October 2011         8.5 inches
November 2011    4.5 inches
December 2011 16.5 inches
January 2012        4.9 inches
February 2012    20.2 inches
March 2012         none
Total                     54.6 inches

It is truly a shocker to learn that the past winter was actually colder and wetter than the previous year. The timing of the storms, the lack of wind, or some other factor must have created the perception that it was warmer this past winter.

Even with greater snowfall in the metro area, snowpack is below average and 95% of Colorado is reportedly in drought conditions. Two significant forest fires have occurred and summer hasn’t arrived.

Conclusion: Premise 1 is FALSE.

Premise 2 – The warm weather resulted in increased participation for local sporting activities.
There is no easy way to prove this. HOWEVER, the lack of snow in the ski country, at the right times, was in part responsible for diminished lift ticket sales – a decrease of more than 7%. Ouch that hurts! Not only did the lack of snow hurt ski business it will play havoc with rafting businesses this summer.

Conclusion: #2 Possibly true in the metro areas, FALSE in ski areas.

Premise 3 – Warm weather means stronger retail sales.
This is an interesting concept that is difficult to prove. Cold and snowy weather on key shopping days have reduced retail sales during past Christmas shopping seasons, but there is no evidence that warmer weather has increased trade sales. Retail sales are noticeably higher compared to a year ago, but that is attributed to more people working than last year at this time. And in some cases, sales are higher because retailers have finally been able to raise prices. Sales may be higher in the metro areas, but they are probably below expectations in the ski country because of reduced traffic.

Conclusion: #3 – Possibly true in the metro area, FALSE in ski areas.

Premise 4 – Warm weather means increased construction activity.
For the six month period October to March there were 114,500 construction workers this year versus 113,300 last year. Last June, the Construction sector finally bottomed out from the 2007 recession and has been slowly adding jobs since. The big boost of construction jobs in January is more likely a result of improved economic conditions than warmer weather.

Conclusion:#4 – Inconclusive.

One of the fun things about economics is dissecting “grassy knoll” or “warmer weather” theories to see if they are true, partially true, or false. In this case, it is highly improbable that the “warmer” weather was a source of net job creation. The gains in revenue at Denver golf courses, bike shops, and shopping malls were offset by losses on the ski slopes and sales in mountain t-shirt shops, hotels, and restaurants. The warmer weather will also result in a dismal rafting season and increased costs for fighting forest fires.

For a more complete update on the recovery of the Colorado economy, go to https://cber.co/.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Leisure and Hospitality Leads the Recovery

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The Leisure and Hospitality (L&H) Sector has played a critical role in the recovery of the national and state economies. It is important because of the number of jobs added and because it is part of the economy in every county in the state.

Nationally, seasonally adjusted employment peaked in December 2008 at 13,560,000 workers. The number of workers declined with the Great Recession and in March 2012 employment surpassed that previous peak, reaching 13,587,000. It took 50 months for the sector to go from peak-to-trough-to-peak.

There was a similar pattern for Colorado. L&H employment peaked in May 2009 at 276,000. L&H Employment declined with the recession and in January 2012 it surpassed the prior peak at 277,800. It took 44 months for the state sector to recover.

While 50 and 44 months is a long time, it is possible that the overall state economy may take close to six years before it reaches the 2006 peak.

Nationally, the time from peak to trough was 24 months, or two years. During this time 637,000 jobs were lost. The recovery period was slightly longer, 26 months.

At the state level, the time from peak-to-trough was 20 months. About 16,000 jobs were lost during this period. The recovery period was 24 months.

It is depressing to consider some of these number; however, it is even more unsettling to think that these numbers describe one of the state’s stronger sectors.

For additional information on the overall state economy go to the cber.co website.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

U.S. Employment Tapers Off – Another False Start?

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After three months of solid job growth, BLS released what seems to be a bad April Fool’s Day joke in the form of the March jobs report. After adding jobs at an average monthly rate of 246,000 for December 2011 – February 2012, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by only 120,000 in March.

In light of projections by analysts that job gains would exceed 200,000, this report begs the question, “Are we seeing another false start in job growth, as we did in the first half of 2010 and 2011, or was the March report just another bump in the seemingly endless road to full recovery?”

On Monday (April 9), the DJIA lost 130 points, or 1%. Is that a real answer to the question or just a partial answer?

On a positive note, jobs were added in the Leisure and Hospitality (39,000); Private Education and Health Care (37,000); Manufacturing (37,000); Professional and Business Services (31,000), and Financial Services (15,000) sectors.

Many of the jobs in the Manufacturing and PBS sectors are primary jobs, i.e. they bring outside wealth to the community and they create more support jobs than other sectors. It is good news when jobs are added in the Tourism sector because the industry touches most regions. Increased tourism jobs are an indicator that people have greater disposable income – and they are spending it.

Increased jobs in the Financial sector may be a sign that the woes of the industry may be behind us – with an emphasis on “may”. And then there is the Private Education and Health Care sector. Depending on our perspective this sector may be viewed as a perpetual job creation machine or nothing more than a bureaucracy builder.

The losers were Retail Trade (33,800) and Construction (7,500) sectors.

So is the latest report an April Fool’s Day joke? Employment growth is likely to continue, but not likely at the rate of 2250,000 jobs a month that is needed to significantly lower the unemployment rate.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

After 8 Months, 7 Sectors Show Job Gains

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Through the first 8 months of the year there are 7 sectors of the economy that have added a net total of 34,900 jobs, compared to the same period last year.

  • Tourism                                                +11,600
  • Private Education and Health Care +9,600
  • Professional and Scientific                +4,100
  • Extractive Industries                             +3,000
  • Wholesale Trade                                  +2,300
  • Employment Services                          +2,300
  • Higher Education                                  +1,900

These sectors account for 40.6% of total employment. Average wages for this mix of workers is about $43,600 per worker, compared to average annual wages for all workers of about $47,900 (calculations based on 2010 QCEW data). In other words, the average wages for the sectors that are adding jobs is less than the overall state average.

The 2011 prognosis is that each of these sectors will show job gains for the year (2011) and that average annual wages for the group will be less than the overall state average.  For a more comprehensive review of the Colorado economy visit the CBER website.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.