Q3 2015 Real GDP Records 2.0% Gain

On December 22nd, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the “third estimate” of the Q3 2015 Real GDP for the United States. It increased at an annualized rate of 2.0% compared to 3.9% for Q2.

The nominal or current-dollar GDP (chained on 2009) for Q3 increased by $146.5 billion to $18,060.2 billion, a gain of 3.3%. The Q2 current-dollar GDP rose by 6.1% or $264.4 billion.

2015 Real GDP, Chained Dollars (2009 Billions)

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

        Gross domestic product

$16,177

$16,334

$16,414

Personal consumption expenditures

$11,081

$11,179

$11,262

    Goods

$3,804

$3,855

$3,902

    Services

$7,277

$7,325

$7,363

Gross private domestic investment

$2,830

$2,865

$2,860

    Fixed investment

$2,701

$2,736

$2,761

        Nonresidential

$2,189

$2,211

$2,225

        Residential

$512

$524

$534

    Change in private inventories

$113

$114

$86

Net exports of goods and services

$(541)

$(535)

$(546)

    Exports

$2,091

$2,118

$2,121

        Goods

$1,429

$1,452

$1,449

        Services

$661

$664

$671

    Imports

$2,633

$2,652

$2,667

        Goods

$2,161

$2,178

$2,186

        Services

$470

$472

$480

Government consumption expenditures

$2,839

$2,857

$2,870

    Federal

$1,111

$1,111

$1,112

        National defense

$680

$681

$678

        Nondefense

$431

$430

$433

    State and local

$1,726

$1,744

$1,756

Residual

$(41)

$(45)

$(49)

The 2015 Q3 Real GDP posted gains in the following areas:
• Personal consumption expenditures, the largest category, were up by 3.0% compared to 3.6% in the previous quarter. Goods were up 5.0% and Services were up 2.1%.
• Fixed investments posted a gain of 3.7% in Q3, down from 5.2% in Q2. Nonresidential investments for Q3 were up 2.6% and residential investments rose 8.2%. Both had lower levels of growth than Q2.
• Exports posted a gain of 0.7% for Q3 compared to 5.1% in Q2. Goods actually declined by -0.9% while services increased by 3.9%.
• Imports recorded an increase of 2.3% in Q3 compared to 3.0% in Q2. Goods increased by 2.3% while services posted a 6.4% increase. (Note: Imports are subtracted from the value of the GDP).
• Government consumption increased by 1.8% in Q3 compared to 2.6% in Q2. Federal spending was flat with a decrease in national defense spending and an increase in Nondefense spending. State and local government spending posted a 2.8% gain, down from 4.3% in the prior quarter.

Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real GDP – Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rates

Q1 Q2 Q3
        Gross domestic product 0.6 3.9 2.0
Personal consumption expenditures 1.8 3.6 3.0
    Goods 1.1 5.5 5.0
    Services 2.1 2.7 2.1
Gross private domestic investment 8.6 5.0 -0.7
    Fixed investment 3.3 5.2 3.7
        Nonresidential 1.6 4.1 2.6
            Structures -7.4 6.2 -7.2
            Equipment 2.3 0.3 9.9
            Intellectual property products 7.4 8.3 -0.8
        Residential 10.1 9.3 8.2
    Change in private inventories
Net exports of goods and services
    Exports -6.0 5.1 0.7
        Goods -11.7 6.5 -0.9
        Services 7.3 2.3 3.9
    Imports 7.1 3.0 2.3
        Goods 7.2 3.2 1.4
        Services 6.7 2.0 6.4
Government consumption expenditures -0.1 2.6 1.8
    Federal 1.1 0.0 0.2
        National defense 1.0 0.3 -1.4
        Nondefense 1.2 -0.5 2.8
    State and local -0.8 4.3 2.8
Addendum:
    Gross domestic product, current dollars 0.8 6.1 3.3

Q4 2015 Real GDP is expected to be stronger than Q3 and the rate of growth for 2015 will be in the range of 2.3% to 2.5%.