The Colorado Budget Challenge 2011 – Where to Cut?

For the next two months Colorado legislators will be dealing with the two-edged sword known as the balanced budget amendment.

During lean fiscal times, the amendment forces state senators and representatives to make difficult choices in this zero sum game. They have been faced with similar challenges since 2001 as growth in General Funds Revenue has not kept pace with increased demand for services.

For example, if you were a legislator, which of the following would you eliminate or reduce funding for?
• Social Service – Would you reduce or eliminate funding for single moms and lower income individuals to help them defer transportation costs so they can travel to work?
• Economic Development – Would you reduce or eliminate an incentive program that would retain or bring jobs to Colorado, foster growth in state output, and generate revenue for government entities?
• Health Care – Would you cut back or eliminate funding for a health-care program that would reduce services to elderly? The reduction in state funding would also decrease federal funding by a similar amount.  It is a tough time to be a state legislator.

On a positive note, the balanced-budget amendment means that Colorado is not having to borrow money from the Federal government to continue basic operations.

The table below, highlights the source and magnitude of the challenges facing the state government as it is forced to deal with increased demand and reduced revenue. The table compares key data sets for 2001 and 2009. Highlights of the table are:
• The Colorado population increased by about 700,000 people.
• K-12 enrollment is up 76,000 students.
• Despite tuition increases, enrollment at the state’s colleges and universities has grown by more than 21,000 students.
• The prison population is up by about 6,000 inmates.
• The number of Medicaid recipients almost doubled, up 226,000.
• Employment levels were very volatile. The 2009 average was only slightly higher than the 2001 average.
• General fund revenues remained virtually flat (not inflation adjusted).
• Growth of general funds will be constrained by the severity of the Great Recession.

Clearly, the state does not have a stable fiscal model for being competitive in the global economy. The rough ride will continue well into the future.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

RTD Makes the Rubber Meet the Road

As an infrequent rider on RTD buses, I recently experienced sticker shock when I boarded a bus from DIA to Boulder and was asked to pay $12 for a one-way ticket. Back in the day, the fares were $4.

My first thought was, “Well, I will show them for raising the fares. Next time I will drive.” So I quickly did the math to confirm my beliefs.

Total round-trip mileage from Boulder to DIA is roughly 90 miles. Assuming $.50 a mile for vehicle operating costs, the expense for me to drive would be about $45, not to mention parking fees and the hassle of dealing with traffic. It was clear that the round trip fee of $24 was the most cost effective way to travel, at least for one person.

After I sat down I noticed signage on the bus that encouraged visitors to go to its website for a free lesson in mass transit economics. When I got home, I visited www.rtd-denver.com/economics and learned that fares account for about 30% of total revenues. Approximately 69% is derived from sales tax revenues and one percent comes from on-vehicle advertising and other sources. The economic lesson concluded with a statement that an $18 million deficit is projected for the 2011 budget.

To address this situation, RTD solicited feedback from its customer base over recent months. They asked about possible and preferred solutions that could be considered as part of a fiscal plan to address the projected shortfall. A short list of considerations include wage and hiring freezes, staff furloughs, service reduction and fare increases.

Many of the basic daily services that we take for granted during good economic times are facing challenges at least as severe as those faced by RTD. We can expect to face those challenges for awhile. Stay tuned to see how RTD makes the rubber meet the road.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.