State Government Archives - Colorado-based Business and Economic Research

Great Recession Continues to Play Havoc with State Finances

July 20, 2012July 20, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

The Great Recession has taken its toll on state and local governments. Three years after the end of the Great Recession state and local governments continue to face significant fiscal challenges. In mid-July The State Budget Crisis Task Force released a report headed up by Richard Ravitch and Paul Volcker that examined the challenges to financial stability for California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Texas, and Virginia. Just over 36% of the country’s population lives in these six states.

There are a number of variables (policies, economic structure, demographics, etc.) that differentiate the states; however, the report identified six fiscal threats common to each:
• Medicaid spending growth is reducing funds for other needs.
• Federal deficit reduction will result in lower funds for state coffers.
• Underfunded retirement accounts are a risk for future budgets
• Eroding tax bases and volatile tax revenues jeopardize state finances.
• Local government fiscal challenges may impact state budgets.
• State budget laws and practices hinder fiscal stability.

To show the seriousness of the problem the report evaluated changes in tax revenues generated from the peak-to-trough, the trough to 2011, and peak-to-2011. The changes in percentages are adjusted for inflation; however, they are not adjusted for policy changes. In some cases policy changes have been made that have or will positively impact revenues.

The change from peak-to-trough follows:
• U.S.  -12.0%
• California -14.9%
• Illinois  -18.7%
• New Jersey -17.2%
• New York    -4.3%
• Texas  -15.4%
• Virginia -15.9%

The change for the recovery, or trough-to-2011, follows:
• U.S.  + 5.7%
• California +11.9%
• Illinois  +12.9%
• New Jersey + 2.7%
• New York + 4.3%
• Texas  + 7.4%
• Virginia + 3.9%

The change from peak- to-2011, follows:
• U.S.  – 7.0%
• California – 4.8%
• Illinois  – 8.2%
• New Jersey -15.0%
• New York – 0.2%
• Texas  – 9.2%
• Virginia -12.6%

Colorado was not included in the report; however, the challenges faced by the state are similar. Data from the Colorado Legislative Council’s quarterly reports (June) show the following levels in the state’s gross general fund, expressed in billions:
• FY ending June 2008 $7.7
• FY ending June 2009 $6.7
• FY ending June 2010 $6.5
• FY ending June 2011 $7.1
• FY ending June 2012 $7.6
• FY ending June 2013 $7.8
• FY ending June 2014 $8.2

The Colorado data is not inflation adjusted. On an inflation-adjusted basis the level of the state General Fund will not return to the FY 2008 level until FY 2013 or 2014. The Colorado State Demography Office projects that the state population will increase from 4.9 to 5.4 million people for that period. In other words the state will add half a million people and have the same level of funding as five or six years ago.

It is truly a challenging time to be working in the public sector.

Links to the State Budget Crisis site and the Colorado Legislative Council site are:

Bottom Up Planning Process Nears Implementation Phase

March 28, 2011May 31, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The 14th, and final, stop on Governor Hickenlooper’s Bottom Up Eco Devo Planning tour landed at the Arvada Center earlier today. About 200 citizens and business leaders from the metro counties convened to provide input. The bottom up information gathering process is scheduled to be wrapped up at the end of April.

Attendees were grouped by their county of residence and asked to discuss a common set of questions and issues. The following paragraphs provide some of the topics discussed by fellow Broomfielders.

Topic: What can government do better to support business?
• Make it easier for businesses to find out about local assistance.
• Become more aware of how to support the unique needs of specific industries and clusters such as photonics, aerospace, nanotechnology, and the biosciences. To this point, a brief discussion focused on how elected officials can become more “military-friendly”, which includes support of the defense, homeland security, aerospace industries and their supply chain.
• Continue to further strengthen relationships between education, government, economic developers, workforce training, and the private sector.
• Improvement of the 36 corridor, including completion of FasTracks.
• Establish a visionary group that provides a long-term economic vision for Colorado – that covers all aspects of economic development from research to recruitment to retention. During the 1980s and 1990s, the Colorado Advanced Technology Institute (CATI), helped develop many of the clusters and industries that are critical to the state’s present economy.

Topic: What are areas that are important to the success of Broomfield?
• Maintain a designated level of primary jobs (jobs that create other jobs).
• Support innovation.
• Strength of neighboring communities (higher education, research facilities, distribution services) and realization that it is not necessary to duplicate their competencies.

Topic: What are Broomfield success stories?
• The foresight of city and county leaders that provided Broomfield with a diverse tax base derived from a strong mix of retail and industry.
• Development of the 1st Bank Center.
• 36 Commuting Solutions has developed partnerships between local municipalities to secure funds for improvements of the 36 corridor.

Colorado is blessed with an intelligent and creative populaton who have an abundance of enthusiasm and good ideas. It will be easy to organize and prioritize their thoughts and opinions. The challenge will come in finding funds to implement the plan.

A more complete summary of this event and previous meetings will be available on the Bottom Up website.

Hickenlooper Proposes Closure of Fort Lyon Correctional Facility

February 22, 2011May 31, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

Governor Hickenlooper recently proposed closing the Fort Lyon Correctional Facility as part of cost cutting measures to bring the state budget into balance. The facility employs roughly 200 workers.

For those in the metro area companies come and go and the loss of a company with 200 employees often goes unnoticed, unless a person works there. Approximately 1.2 million people work in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA, so a loss of 200 jobs would be 0.02% of total employment- not even a bleep on the radar. Bent County residents obviously have a different perspective.

A short lesson about the county will provide insight into their point of view. Bent County is located in Southeast Colorado east of Pueblo, between Otero and Prowers County. Approximately 6,500 people call the county home. Between 2000 and 2009, Bent County population actually increased by about 650 people, or an annualized rate of 1.2%. While this is less than the rate of growth for the state, at least it is positive. Not all rural counties in Colorado have seen their population expand over the past decade.

A review of Census data (Quickfacts) shows that there are about 2,000 households in the county and 2,400 housing units. There is a higher concentration of minorities (Black, American Indian, and Hispanic – terms used by the Census Bureau ).

About 65% of the population (which include prison inmates) are male. As is the case with many other rural counties, Bent has a lower concentration of people under the age of 18 and a higher percentage of workers over the age of 65.

In 2008, median household income for the county was about $33,000 compared to $57,000 for the state. As might be expected from these income levels, approximately 29% of the population lives below poverty level.

With that background let’s look again at the importance of the correctional facility. Fort Lyon is Bent County’s second-largest employer. (Note: Many Colorado rural counties are the home to correctional facilities).

Data from the Colorado Office of Labor Market Information (QCEW) reported that in 2009, Bent County has 1,303 covered workers (workers on payrolls who paid unemployment insurance) in 88 establishments. Only 560 are private sector employees.

At that time the top employment sectors were as follows: local government (451), state government (234), retail (68), hotels and restaurants (65), federal government (58), health care and social assistance (49), and finance and insurance (45). In December, 2009 the county unemployment rate was 8.7% (LMI). The loss of 200 employees in this economy would be devastating!

Should Governor Hickenlooper rescind his recommendation to eliminate the Fort Lyon facility? If so, what other programs can be cut or eliminated to keep the facility in operations? There is no right answer and there is no winner in this situation.

It’s a tough time to be a governor!