State Demography Office Archives - Colorado-based Business and Economic Research

State Population Approaches 5.2 Million – State Demography Office

November 17, 2011November 17, 2011 horvath Leave a comment

On November 4, Cindy DeGroen, Projections Demographer, and Elizabeth Garner, State Demographer, presented their annual population update and key findings from the 2010 U.S. Census at the annual State Demographer‘s meeting. A sampling of the information from their reports follows.

In 2010, the state population topped 5 million. By 2012, the population will reach about 5.2 million, with about 72,300 births, 32,400 deaths, and net migration of 36,500. This represents a net gain of about 76,400 people.

The top five counties in population (July) are:
1 El Paso 627,096
2 Denver 605,722
3 Arapahoe 575,022
4 Jefferson 535,533
5 Adams 443,715

The five counties with the least population are:
60 Kiowa 1,399
61 Jackson 1,390
62 Hinsdale 847
63 (tie) Mineral 710
63 (tie) San Juan 710

The census showed that between 2000 and 2010 the state added a net of 727,935 people.
• Douglas County added 109,699
• El Paso County added 105,334
• Arapahoe County added 84,036
• Adams County added 77,746
• Weld County added 71,889
In total these five counties added 448,704 people, or about 62% of the population increase during this period.

From a municipal perspective, the following 5 cities posted the top gains:
• Colorado Springs 55,537
• Aurora 48,685
• Denver 45,522
• Thornton 36,388
• Castle Rock 28.007

The following 5 cities posted the largest losses:
• Wheat Ridge -2,747
• Englewood -1,472
• Lakewood -1,146
• Walsenburg -1,114
• Lamar -1,065

From this sampling of data it is clear to see that the state is evolving rapidly, as certain areas gain and lose population and workforce.

State to Add 28,000 Jobs – State Demography Office

November 11, 2011November 11, 2011 horvath Leave a comment

On November 4, State Economist David Keyser unveiled his annual economic forecast at the 29th Annual State Demography meeting. In his report Keyser stated that the economy remains fragile, but that jobs will be added an a slow rate in 2012. Growth will be in the range of 1.0%, or 28,000 civilian jobs. He projected that more than 50,000 jobs would be added in 2013.

Unemployment will remain high through 2012, about 8.4%. There will be an insufficient number of jobs added to lower the rate significantly. In addition, labor participation rates are low. As jobs are created at a faster rate, the participation rate will pick up. That in turn, will keep the unemployment rate at a high level.

The painfully slow recovery will be extended by the lack of growth in per capita personal income. Stronger income growth is needed to spur on increased demand for goods and services. Real PCPI is projected to grow at 2.8% and 2.2% respectively in 2012 and 2013. On a positive note, the state inflation rate will remain around 2% in 2012 and bump up to 3% in 2013. Rising energy prices will play a role in the increase.

Looking ahead to 2012, Keyser sees tourism and retiree driven jobs as bright spots. As well, agriculture and the extractive industries, particularly oil and gas, will have strong years. In fact Keyser also sees an uptick in construction, as both single family and multifamily permits will more than double. Total permits will approach 30,000, up from about 13,000 in 2010. It should be noted that the mix of permits will be different than in the past. It will include a greater concentration of multifamily units. On the downside, Keyser points to weakness in investment and wealth driven jobs.

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1 in 6 Colorado Jobs are Construction or Construction-Related

February 2, 2011May 31, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The following is an excerpt from Colorado’s Construction Industry – Impact Beyond the Hammers and Nails olorado’s construction and related industries employ one-in-six private-sector covered workers, yet almost 60% of the net jobs lost between 2007 and 2009 were in these sectors.

What type of economic activity is necessary to generate enough construction and construction-related activity to recoup these losses, particularly given the state of Colorado’s housing and commercial markets? (Note: this does not suggest that construction is primary or export industry or that is could or should be).

A financial analyst might suggest that the risk or volatility associated with the construction industry could be reduced if Colorado had a larger, more diverse economy. Therein lies the paradox. Because Colorado is a growth state, it is necessary to have a construction industry to support the current base of five million people and build the homes and buildings that would support a larger, more diverse economy. The Colorado State Demography Office projects continued population increases in the range of 1.5% to 2.0% for the extended future. (Population projections can be found on the State Demography Office website ).

Even with the recent reduction in state construction workers, the 2009 location quotient is 1.29, down from 1.44 in 2001. Because the industry is not considered a primary or export industry, at some point the location quotient will eventually revert to 1.0. At that time Colorado will have a concentration of construction workers comparable to most other parts of the country. Keep in mind that this correction will likely include a comparable adjustment in the related industries identified in this study.

Construction is necessary for the expansion and maintenance of the Colorado economy. It is essential that economic development, public, and private leaders understand the relationship between construction employment, its related sectors and the overall economy. That includes awareness of the volatility of the industry and the likelihood that construction employment will ultimately return to a location quotient of 1.0.

Job Losses Expected in 2011 – State Demography Office

November 7, 2010May 31, 2014 horvath Leave a comment

The 2010 Annual State Demography Meeting kicked off on a somber note, when staff economist David Keyser; announced that the state’s recovery from the Great Recession will be painfully slow.

Some of the key points from Keyser’s review of the past year (2010) were:
• Job gains occurred in health care, government, and education.
• Ongoing losses in manufacturing continue to hinder the recovery because they have a high multiplier effect.
• Low wage jobs were hit harder.
• Access to credit provided a challenge for many companies.
• Small businesses saw significant setbacks.
• Rural counties that relied on oil and gas or tourism (such as the Western Slope) suffered greater losses, while agriculture-based economies were more stable.
• The loss of basic jobs, such as manufacturing, will have a long-term effect on the state because these jobs are likely to be relocated elsewhere.
• On the other hand, the loss of non-basic jobs, such as retail, food and beverage, or personal services will return in the same location.
• Colorado will remain a popular place to live and work and net migration will remain positive, but slightly below previous years.

Looking ahead, key points from Keyser’s presentation for 2011 were:
• Non-farm wage and salary employment will decline slightly and a best case scenario is that it will be flat. Wage and salary job losses should not exceed 22,000 (1%).
• Agriculture and small businesses are likely to post a slight increase, offsetting declines in wage and salary employment.
• Construction won’t come back in the immediate future.
• Health care will continue to add jobs.
• Colorado will continue to be closely tied to the US economy.
• Many of the effects of the 2007 recession could be permanent.

Keyser’s forecast for 2011 is slightly lower than what cber.co projected in late October, but the basic analysis of the current state of the economy is similar.