Tag: Output

Policy and Prices Impact Output for Extractive Industries – Is Colorado Closed for Business?

horvath

The extractive industries are an important and visible part of Colorado’s economy. In 2012, Colorado’s GDP was 1.76% of the U.S. GDP and Colorado’s Mining sector output was 3.58% of the U.S. Mining sector output.  In other words, Colorado’s extractive industries critical components of both the state and the national economy.

Between 1997 and 2012, there were stark differences in the state and national output for the extractive industries and the private sector.

  • The annualized rate of growth for U.S. Private Sector Real GDP (sum of all states) was 2.3% and the extractive industries were -0.6%.
  • The compound growth rate for Colorado Private Sector Real GDP was 3.1% and the extractive industries grew at a rate of 3.6%.

Nationally sector output trended downward from 1997 to 2005 and trended upward from 2005 to 2009. Between 2009 and 2012, sector output trended downward again.

In Colorado sector output  trended upward from 1997 to 2009; however, it has trended downward since 2009.

  • The annualized rate of growth for U.S. Private Sector Real GDP (sum of all states) was 2.5% and extractive industry output was -2.0%.
  • The compound growth rate for Colorado Private Sector Real GDP was 2.2% and extractive industry output was -4.0%.

The variance in output has been caused by changes in prices, supply and demand, and policy. Recently, the latter has had the most detrimental impact on the industry in Colorado.  Policy and anti-fracking efforts are likely to further suppress output in the months ahead. In addition to reducing output, this will create the perception that Colorado is not a business-friendly state.


©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Historical Colorado Output Growth Greater Than U.S.

horvath

The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released 2011 State Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data by NAICS sector. Last year the top industries for the U.S. and Colorado were similar, but they were ranked in different order.

United States Gross Domestic Product 2011 (Sum of States)
• $14.981 trillion.
• Private sector is 87.4% of total GDP; Government is 12.6%.
• Manufacturing; Real Estate/Rental/Leasing; Finance/Insurance are 32.4% of total GDP.
• Professional/ Scientific/Technical; Health Care/Social Assistance, and Retail Trade are 21.6% of the total.
Colorado Gross Domestic Product 2011
• $264.308 billion.
• Private sector is 87.2% of total GDP; Government is 12.8%.
• Real Estate/Rental/Leasing; Professional/Scientific/Technical; and Information are 30.1% of total GDP.
• Manufacturing; Finance/Insurance; and Health Care/Social Assistance are 20.7% of the total.

A quick and dirty historical analysis shows that
• Colorado’s Real GDP (2.9%) grew at a faster rate than the U.S. Real GDP (2.1%) from 1997 to 2011 as well as from 2007 to 2011 (0.7% vs. 0.0%).
• Both the private and public sector real output for Colorado grew at a faster rate than the U.S from 1997 to 2011, as well as from 2007 to 2011. Colorado is listed first in the following comparisons.
o Private sector for 1997 to 2011  3.1% vs.2.2%.
o Private sector for 2007 to 2011  0.5% vs. -0.1%.
o Public sector for 2007 to 2011  1.1% vs. 0.8%
o Public sector for 2007 to 2011  2.2% vs. 0.6%.

For the period 1997 to 2011, four sectors had negative annualized growth in the U.S.: Construction, Utilities, Mining, Construction, and Administrative/Waste Management. Construction is the only sector that posted a decline in Colorado. Colorado outperformed the nation in all sectors except Transportation/Warehousing, Real Estate/Rental/Leasing, Administrative/Waste Management, and Arts/Entertainment/Recreation.

It is important to note that some of the sectors with strongest output growth were sectors that incurred declines in jobs over this period. The Manufacturing and Information sectors are two key examples).

For a detailed analysis of the state GDP, click here (Special Reports section) or go to cber.co.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.