The most recent JOLTS data points to solid job growth in the U.S. economy.
For those unfamiliarwith JOLTS… The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that reports the fluctuations of hires and separations during the business cycle of the U.S. economy. The difference is the change in U.S. employment.
The net change between hires (green) and separations (red) turned negative in January 2008 and remained that way for 28 of the next 33 months. Since October 2010, the difference between hires and separations has been positive every month.
The net change has fluctuated between 162,000 and 210,000 for the past two years.
Beginning in December 2007 the number of hires began a freefall that continued for 18 months (June 2009). Ironically, the number of separations began declining at the same time. They declined until May 2010. The reason there was such a severe downturn was that hiring decreased at a faster rate than separations.
The number of hires began increasing in June 2009 and has continued since then.
The number of separations was relatively flat from mid-2010 through April 2012 (almost two years). Separations have since increased along with the number of decreases. This “churn” is normal as workers transition between companies for better jobs.
The current hire and separation patterns are consistent with solid job growth, although the levels of hiring are well below the hiring associated with the recovery from the 2001 recession.
