Tag: Growth Rate

Colorado New Vehicle Registrations Trend Upward

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One of many signs of a solid Colorado economy is the growth in the number of new vehicle registrations. Increased registrations are usually a function of a growing population and solid job growth.

New registrations are also stimulated by low interest rates and higher consumer confidence. As well, lower gas prices may fuel the sales of models that have lower gas mileage, such as large pickups or four-wheel drive vehicles.

The number of new vehicle registrations in Colorado decreased from 198,910 in 2002 to 104,687 in 2009. Even though there was a steady increase in the state population, back-to-back recessions caused the sharp decline in registrations.

A solid recovery began in 2010 followed by double digit growth in 2011, 2012, and 2013. In 2013 there were 176,433 new vehicle registrations.

The estimated rate of growth will slow to 6.5% in2014 with 187,901 registrations. In 2015 there will be a 3.2% growth rate to 194,000 registrations. The “slowdown” in the rate of growth will occur as sales will increase at a more sustainable rate. In addition, uncertainty in the extractive industries will cause some consumers to be more cautious.

new vehicle registrations

Mining and Real Estate – Drivers of the Colorado Economy

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Thank goodness for the  mining and real estate industries! From an output perspective these industries are the primary drivers of the Colorado economy.

In 2013, Colorado’s nominal GDP was $294.4 billion (most current data available). The state’s economy expanded by $157.1 billion between 1997 and 2013 (1997 is the first year that data was available). Between 2009 and 2013 the GDP expanded by $46.3 billion.

The Great Recession had a major impact on the way the economy expanded. This is evident when comparing the contribution to output for the periods 1997 to 2013 and 2009 to 2013.

Between 1997 and 2013 the contribution to GDP was broken down as follows:
• Goods Producing 20.5%
• Service Producing 68.6%
• Private sector (Goods + Services) 89.0%
• Government 11.0%

Between 1997 and 2013 the annualized rate of growth for the GDP follows:
• Total 4.9%
• Private 5.0%
• Government 4.1%

Between 2009 and 2013 the contribution to GDP was broken down as follows:
• Goods Producing 28.0%
• Service Producing 65.5%
• Private sector (Goods + Service) 93.6%
• Government 6.4%

Between 2009 and 2013 the annualized rate of growth for the GDP follows:
• Total 4.4%
• Private 4.7%
• Government 2.2%

Thank goodness for the Goods Producing Sectors (Agriculture, Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing)!

Industry 2013 GDP (millions) 2013 minus 1997 % of Total 2013 minus 2009 % of Total
All industry total $294,443 $157,072 $46,266
Private industries $258,217 $139,860 89.0% $43,287 93.6%
Goods Producing $57,447 $32,144 20.5% $12,964 28.0%
Service Producing $200,771 $107,718 68.6% $30,325 65.5%
Government $36,226 $17,212 11.0% $2,979 6.4%

The following two tables provide more detail by industry.

The following table shows more detail by industry sector. It is sorted in descending order by the column 2013 minus 1997.

Industry 2013 GDP (millions) 2013 minus 1997 % of Total 2013 minus 2009 % of Total
Real estate and rental and leasing $40,194 $21,355 13.6% $6,895 14.9%
Mining $19,848 $17,964 11.4% $8,518 18.4%
Government $36,226 $17,212 11.0% $2,979 6.4%
Professional, scientific, and technical services $26,355 $16,084 10.2% $4,233 9.1%
Information $21,578 $12,019 7.7% $1,407 3.0%
Health care and social assistance $17,438 $10,503 6.7% $2,262 4.9%
Wholesale trade $15,915 $7,818 5.0% $2,606 5.6%
Retail trade $16,105 $6,926 4.4% $1,965 4.2%
Manufacturing $21,600 $6,657 4.2% $2,171 4.7%
Finance and insurance $14,480 $6,067 3.9% $2,436 5.3%
Accommodation and food services $9,409 $5,255 3.3% $1,769 3.8%
Management of companies and enterprises $6,207 $5,106 3.3% $1,550 3.4%
Construction $11,820 $4,861 3.1% $208 0.4%
Administrative and waste management $8,653 $4,308 2.7% $1,090 2.4%
Transportation and warehousing $7,984 $4,094 2.6% $1,598 3.5%
Other services $6,549 $2,784 1.8% $605 1.3%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting $4,179 $2,662 1.7% $2,067 4.5%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation $3,848 $2,029 1.3% $890 1.9%
Utilities $3,798 $1,782 1.1% $646 1.4%
Educational services $2,258 $1,588 1.0% $373 0.8%

The following table shows more detail by industry sector. It is sorted in descending order by the column 2013 minus 2009.

Industry 2013 GDP (millions) 2013 minus 1997 % of Total 2013 minus 2009 % of Total
Mining $19,848 $17,964 11.4% $8,518 18.4%
Real estate and rental and leasing $40,194 $21,355 13.6% $6,895 14.9%
Professional, scientific, and technical services $26,355 $16,084 10.2% $4,233 9.1%
Government $36,226 $17,212 11.0% $2,979 6.4%
Wholesale trade $15,915 $7,818 5.0% $2,606 5.6%
Finance and insurance $14,480 $6,067 3.9% $2,436 5.3%
Health care and social assistance $17,438 $10,503 6.7% $2,262 4.9%
Manufacturing $21,600 $6,657 4.2% $2,171 4.7%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting $4,179 $2,662 1.7% $2,067 4.5%
Retail trade $16,105 $6,926 4.4% $1,965 4.2%
Accommodation and food services $9,409 $5,255 3.3% $1,769 3.8%
Transportation and warehousing $7,984 $4,094 2.6% $1,598 3.5%
Management of companies and enterprises $6,207 $5,106 3.3% $1,550 3.4%
Information $21,578 $12,019 7.7% $1,407 3.0%
Administrative and waste management $8,653 $4,308 2.7% $1,090 2.4%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation $3,848 $2,029 1.3% $890 1.9%
Utilities $3,798 $1,782 1.1% $646 1.4%
Other services $6,549 $2,784 1.8% $605 1.3%
Educational services $2,258 $1,588 1.0% $373 0.8%
Construction $11,820 $4,861 3.1% $208 0.4%

 

Colorado Manufacturing Employment Stronger than U.S.

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Since 1990 Colorado manufacturing employment has fared better than U.S. manufacturing employment. This has occurred in part because Colorado has grown off a much smaller base. Also the mix of companies in Colorado has not included some of the industries, such as textiles, that were hit hardest by outsourcing.

Colorado’s strength in manufacturing is beverages such as Coors/Miller and Budweiser. As well, the state has competencies in select high-tech sectors.

The bad news for Colorado is that the industry’s location quotient, or concentration, is well below 1.0 and trending downward.  In other words, Colorado has a lower concentration of manufacturers than the U.S.

U.S. vs. Colorado Manufacturing Employment
U.S. vs. Colorado Manufacturing Employment.