Tag: Construction

The Strengths of the National Economy will Impact Colorado

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The U.S. economy is currently stronger than it was in 2014. The good news is the Colorado economy is outperforming the U.S. economy in three key areas:
• The Colorado rate of population growth in 2015 is projected to be 1.6% vs. 0.7% for the U.S.
• The Colorado rate of job growth in 2015 is currently projected to be 3.0% vs. 2.2% for the U.S.
• The recently released GDP data shows that Colorado outperformed the U.S. in the rate of growth, 4.7% vs. 2.2% in 2014.

Currently, the strengths of the national economy outnumber the risks. With that in mind this post reviews the manner in which these strengths will impact the Colorado economy.  For each strength the impact on Colorado is highlighted in italics.

The Fed – Janet Yellen has indicated the Federal Reserve is confident the U.S. economy is performing well enough that interest rates can be raised.

Colorado has experienced stronger economic growth than the nation throughout the first half of the year. The state will continue to experience solid growth in the second half of the year.

Real GDP – After a weak start in Q1, Real GDP growth for the year is projected to be in the 2.5% to 2.9% range – better than last year.

In 2014, Colorado’s rate of Real GDP growth was more than twice that of the U.S. Solid growth is expected to continue in 2015.  strengths of the national economy - retail

Retail – The woes of Q1 seem to be behind us. Consumer spending is expected to be stronger in the second half. This may lead to strong back-to- school sales – a significant source of sales for retailers.

The Colorado economy had strong momentum coming into 2015. It did not experience problems felt elsewhere in Q1. Population and job growth will drive continued solid retail growth in 2015.

Jobs – The U.S. is on track to add more than 3.0 million jobs this year. The unemployment rate and the long-term unemployment rate have continued to decline.

As the year has progressed, U.S. job growth has increased at a solid, but decreasing rate. A similar trend may be happening in Colorado.

Consumer Sentiment – According to the Consumer Sentiment Survey, consumers are upbeat.

The mood of shoppers in the malls and the waiting times at local restaurants suggests that Coloradans are upbeat about the economy.

Industry Sentiment – Purchasing managers have a positive outlook for both goods and services. Manufacturing is more sluggish and may remain that way through the end of the year.

Continued optimism in the non-manufacturing sectors points to ongoing solid growth for these sectors and the Colorado economy.

Inflation – Inflation is below the Fed’s target rate of 2.0%. As interest rates increase, inflation will approach the target rate.

The increase in Colorado housing prices will cause the state’s rate of inflation to further exceed that of the nation.

Construction – There is strong activity in both the residential and non-residential markets. Construction job growth will be constrained by the lack of trained workers.

Despite the lack of trained construction workers, Colorado’s construction industry is responsible for about 18% of the jobs added in 2015.

Housing Prices – The housing market remains strong – too strong in some areas.

Home owners like having greater equity and local governments benefit from higher property taxes.

These strengths of the national economy have created momentum that will strengthen the U.S. and Colorado into 2016.

Mining Sector Largest Contributor to State’s GDP in 2014

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In early June the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Gross Domestic Product at the state level for two-digit NAICS Codes.

Since 1997 Colorado Real GDP has grown at a faster rate than the Real GDP for the U.S. (Sum of States) in 11 of 17 years. The 2014 U.S. rate of growth was 2.2% compared to 4.7% for Colorado. The Mining Sector played a major role in Colorado’s higher rate of growth this past year.

Since 1997 Colorado Real GDP has grown at a faster rate than the U.S. (Sum of States), 2.8% vs. 2.1%.

There were 8 sectors that gained share in 2014, i.e., their percent of contribution to GDP was greater than their percent of the 2014 total GDP. Collectively, they accounted for 27.1% of the 2014 GDP and 46.5% of the change in the GDP.

The following table shows the sectors, their percentage of the 2014 GDP, and their contribution to the GDP.

Sector % of 2014 Total % of 2014 Contribution
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.3% 1.8%
Utilities 1.5% 3.0%
Management of companies and enterprises (MCE) 2.1% 2.9%
Transportation and warehousing 2.8% 2.9%
Accommodation and food services 3.2% 3.4%
Construction 4.4% 8.6%
Wholesale trade 5.5% 5.7%
Mining 6.2% 18.2%

Key points about the contribution of these sectors to GDP growth are listed below.
• The Mining Sector was the major driver in the growth of the state’s GDP, accounting for 18.2% of the change. Volatility in the price of a barrel of oil could potentially have a major impact on this sector’s level of contribution to the 2015 GDP.
• The contribution of the Construction Sector has been driven by a mix of sustained residential and nonresidential growth.
• The combination of the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation and the Accommodation and Food Services sectors are commonly referred to as Tourism or Leisure and Hospitality. In 2014 the Tourism sector accounted for 4.5% of the GDP% and 5.2% of its growth. Tourism is an important part of the economy for each of the state’s 64 counties.
• The Utilities sector is small, but it experienced growth in 2014 because of strong overall employment and population growth. In addition, GDP growth increased because there was a significant gain in the number of business establishments in 2014.
• The increase in the MCE sector is a result of a 4.5% increase in the number of MCE establishments. In other words more businesses translated into greater GDP growth.
• Both the Wholesale Trade and the Transportation and Warehousing Sectors are small industries. In 2015 they experienced greater than usual gains in employment, which in turn meant stronger GDP growth.

With 4.7% Real GDP growth in 2014, the state economy had significant momentum moving into 2015. Through the first six months of the year, the state has capitalized on that momentum.

gdp gaining share - mining sector

Utah Job Growth Outpacing Colorado

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Colorado’s wage and salary employment is about twice the size of Utah’s wage and salary employment. In some state rankings, it has been reported that Utah is adding workers at a faster rate than Colorado.

Since 1990, Utah wage and salary employment has grown at a faster rate than Colorado, although the two states grew at a similar rate during the 1990s.

A review of the following six industries shows that Utah has increased at a faster relative rate than Colorado between 1990 and 2013:
• Construction
• Manufacturing
• Tourism
• Information
• Professional and Business Services
• Financial Activities

The following factors contribute to Utah’s faster rate of growth:
• Utah was showcased around the world for the 2002 Olympics.
• Utah has many of the same assets that Colorado has – quality of life, scenery, tourism, solid higher education.
• Because its rate of growth is calculated off a smaller base, Utah is likely to have a higher rate of growth. That statement is not intended to detract from Utah’s appeal as a place to live, work, and play.

It is common to rank and compare the performance of states. The most important take-away from this comparison is the fact that Colorado and Utah are both popular strong performing states.

Colorado vs. Utah Job Growth

 

 

U.S. and Colorado Economy Remain Solid

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National Economy
The U.S. economy remains strong, with solid employment and output growth.

• Nationally, employment remains strong, despite slower than expected job growth in August. The non-seasonally adjusted data shows that an average of 215,000 jobs has been added each month through eight months. This means the U.S. will add about 2.5 million jobs this year.
• Output remains solid. The first Q2 estimate showed real GDP growth of 4.0%. That was revised upwards to 4.2%. It is possible the third estimate, due later this month, could be revised even higher to 5.0%.
• At the most recent FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve provided no surprises. Their stance on the economy indicates:
o The rate of inflation remains below target.
o Quantitative easing will come to an end.
o There is slack in the labor market.
o Interest rates will remain low in the near term; however, once rate increases begin they will accelerate faster than previously anticipated. It is likely rates will begin increasing in mid-2015.
• The outlook for construction is positive.  Single family building permits have been flat; however the NAHB index shows that homebuilder sentiment is much stronger than the permits data. This suggests greater activity, and stronger data, will occur in the future.
• The unemployment rate, number of unemployed, and the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits continue on a downward trend. The economy should remain healthy as long as fewer people are unemployed and an increasing number of Americans are working.

Colorado Economy

The performance of the Colorado economy is closely tied to changes in U.S. job and output growth. Since the end of the recession Colorado job growth has outperformed the U.S. because of its mix of industries. The state is on track to add jobs at an accelerated rate for the fourth consecutive year.  Job growth this year will be about 3.0%.

• The extractive industries have been a major direct and indirect contributor to the job growth. As well, the extractive industries were responsible for about one-third of the state’s GDP growth in 2013. The extractive industries are important to the economies of about half the counties in the state. From a jobs perspective, the sector is small, but the number of workers will increase by at least 9% this year compared to 2013.
• So far this year, between 10% and 12% of the jobs added in Colorado are construction jobs. The number of jobs will increase by at least 6.5% compared to the same period last year. Growth in the sector might be constrained by a lack of trained workers in specialized construction occupations such as plumbers, HVAC workers, and electricians. The home and infrastructure subsectors also include distinct specialized occupations.
• Tourism has enjoyed a banner year in Colorado. It began with good snow and a strong ski season. The good snow season also meant plenty of water for mountain rafting and summer tourism activities. Special events, such as the USA Pro Challenge, and the lack of fires and flooding provided the foundation for a strong summer season. Leisure and hospitality job growth is poised to be at least 4.6% greater in 2014 than last year. The sector will be responsible for adding about 19% of the jobs in the state this year.  The sector plays a significant part of the economy in all 64 counties.
• The healthcare sector will add more than 10,000 workers in 2014 and expand at a rate of more than 4.3%. The sector continues to face challenges finding workers in many occupations and in rural areas.
• The growth of the professional, scientific, and technical sector is important to the state because a portion of these companies are directly or indirectly a part of the state’s advanced technology sector. The lifestyle of Downtown Denver and Colorado is attracting millennials to jobs in these sectors. The growth of in the sector will be at a rate of about 4.5% in 2014. It is important to note that many of these occupations pay higher than average wages and the sector is adding jobs at an increasing rate.

 

Colorado Job Growth Outpaces the U.S.

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Colorado is outpacing the U.S. in the rate of job growth. The mix of jobs added by the top sectors is different for Colorado than the U.S. In addition, many of the jobs being added in the state pay lower than average wages.

Through seven months, the sectors that contributed the greatest number of jobs (top five) account for 70.4% of jobs created in Colorado.

  • Accommodations and Food Services 19.8%
  • Health Care 15.9%
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 12.0%
  • Construction 11.9%
  • Retail Trade 10.8%.

Through seven months, these same five sectors contributed only 56.4% of the jobs created in the U.S.

  • Accommodations and Food Services 14.1%
  • Health Care 12.6%
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 9.1%
  • Construction 7.7%
  • Retail Trade 12.8%.

Colorado’s rate of growth for these sectors during the first seven months is faster than the U.S.

  • Accommodations and Food Services, 5.5% vs. 2.8%.
  • Health Care, 4.3% vs. 1.7%.
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, 4.3% vs. 2.7%.
  • Construction 6.5% vs. 3.2%.
  • Retail Trade 3.0% vs. 2.0%.

For the first seven months, the cumulative total of the Colorado sectors where primary jobs were categorized (manufacturing, information, PST) expanded at a faster rate than the U.S, 2.7% vs. 1.3%.

The following are the average annual private sector wages for the sectors that are adding the most jobs.

  • Accommodations and Food Services $18,808.
  • Health Care, $45,905.
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, $84,842.
  • Construction, $51,064.
  • Retail Trade $28,159.

Many of the jobs being added in Colorado are low paying jobs.

It is great that the Colorado economy is adding jobs. Time will tell whether the mix of jobs being added will be to Colorado’s benefit or detriment.

Colorado Adds High Number of Low-Wage Jobs

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Is Colorado adding too many low-wage jobs?

When analyzing the job changes in an economy there are several points that are understood. For example:

  • Jobs are often added unevenly. For instance, during expansionary periods construction jobs will usually be added at a faster pace than other jobs.
  • All jobs are important to the economy for different reasons. Some jobs provide basic services while others generate tax revenue.
  • Some jobs have higher than average wages while others have lower than average wages. There is often greater consumption when workers are paid higher wages.

For the past seven months the following five sectors account for about 45% of total jobs in the state, yet they are responsible for almost 75% of the jobs added this year.

  • Accommodations and Food Services
  • Health Care
  • Construction
  • Professional and Scientific Services
  • Retail Trade.

The following information includes the top sectors, the average annual private sector wages for the sectors, and the reasons those sectors are important. The average private sector wages $50,768.

  • Accommodations and Food Services, $18,808. About 10% of all jobs are in the Accommodations and Food Services sector. AFS has accounted for about 20% of the jobs added this year. As a major component of the tourism sector, AFS is an important part of the economy in all 64 counties.
  • Health Care, $45,905. Just under 11% of the state’s s jobs are in the Health Care sector. This category has accounted for about 15% of total jobs added this year. The Health Care sector affects our quality of life and plays a key role in the economy in all 64 counties.
  • Construction, $51,064. The Construction industry is small by comparison, with about 5.0% of total state jobs. Approximately 12% of the job growth is in this category. A segment of the Construction jobs are tied to the growth of the extractive industries.
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, 84,842. A portion of the Professional, Scientific, and Technical jobs are a key part of the state’s advance technology industries. They account for about 8% of the jobs and 11% of the job growth.
  • Retail Trade, $28,159. Retail Trade jobs account for almost 11% of total jobs and 11% of total job growth. The retail sector is critical to most local governments because a majority of their revenue is derived from retail trade sales taxes.

There is legitimate reason to be concerned that the state is adding so many low-wage jobs. On the other hand, it is a positive sign that the state is adding jobs that potentially impact all counties, jobs are being added in sectors that generate tax revenues, and jobs are being added that allow for a better quality of life.

So, is Colorado adding too many low-wage jobs?

 

Colorado Economy Remains Strong

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National Economy

The Colorado economy is outperforming the U.S. economy. Recent strength in the U.S. economy is a positive sign for Colorado.

Nationally, employment remains strong. The non-seasonally adjusted data shows that an average of 230,000 jobs have been added each month through seven months. Most likely the U.S. will add about 2.5 million jobs this year.

On a positive note, the labor force participation rate appears to have bottomed out.

Real GDP increased by 4.0% in Q2. The reasons for the increase in the real GDP were:

  • Stronger personal consumption.
  • Greater private inventory investment.
  • Increased residential fixed investment.
  • Stronger non-residential fixed investment.
  • Improved state and local government spending.
  • Greater demand for exports

Factors that offset the growth were:

  • Increased demand for imports.
  • Decreased federal government spending.

An area of potential concern is construction. Hopefully the industry is taking a breather after its recovery from the Great Recession. The number of building permits issued over the past year has been flat.

In addition, the housing market is cooling off. The rapid appreciation in housing prices is tapering off.

Both manufacturing and services have been solid since the second half of 2009. At least this is being reflected in the growth of the GDP.

Implications of the National Economy on Colorado

These indicators have several implications for Colorado. The short-term outlook points to stronger personal consumption, which bodes well for retailers and tourism, particularly if Mother Nature cooperates by bringing early and frequent snow for the ski season.

Stronger retail sales will add to the coffers of the state and local governments, which should point to continued increases in government spending. This would benefit everything from schools to infrastructure.

On the downside, lower or constrained government spending could impact the military and federal facilities and laboratories. This has the potential to impact the universities and federal facilities in Colorado Springs, Denver, Boulder, and the Northern Colorado metro areas.

The unemployment rate and the number of unemployed continue to trend downward; however, critical labor shortages are developing in many occupations. This is particularly critical to high-tech industries.

Labor shortages are impacting all industries in Northern Colorado which is experiencing rapid growth as a result of the extractive industries boom. Workers are being raided from other companies and industries, which will ultimately drive wages up.

The Colorado construction market still appears to be solid and the value of residential housing is growing, albeit at a slower rate than last year. At the same time the Dow Jones Industrial Average is about where it was at the end of 2013.

Appreciation in the housing and equity markets play into consumer confidence. If consumers feel their house and investments have appreciated, their wealth on paper is greater, and they are more likely to purchases goods and services.

Colorado Economy

The following five sectors account for about 45% of total jobs in the state, yet they are responsible for almost 75% of the jobs added this year.

  • Accommodations and Food Services
  • Health Care
  • Construction
  • Professional and Scientific Services
  • Retail Trade.

All of these jobs are important to the state for various reasons.

  • About 10% of all jobs are in the Accommodations and Food Services sector. AFS has accounted for about 20% of the jobs added this year. As a major component of the tourism sector, AFS is an important part of the economy in all 64 counties.
  • Just under 11% of the state’s s jobs are in the Health Care sector. This category has accounted for about 15% of total jobs added this year. The Health Care sector affects our quality of life and plays a key role in the economy in all 64 counties.
  • The Construction industry is small by comparison, with about 5.0% of total state jobs. Approximately 12% of the job growth is in this category. A segment of the Construction jobs are tied to the growth of the extractive industries.
  • A portion of the Professional, Scientific, and Technical jobs are a key part of the state’s advance technology industries. They account for about 8% of the jobs and 11% of the job growth.
  • Finally, Retail Trade jobs account for almost 11% of total jobs and 11% of total job growth. The retail sector is critical to most local governments because a majority of their revenue is derived from retail sales taxes.

Through seven months of 2014, the average job growth is about 67,300 greater than the same period in 2013.

Occupations with High Unemployment Rates

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It is a good sign the overall unemployment rate is trending downward, especially for occupations that have had an unemployment rate above the national average.

There are 22 SOC (Standard Occupational Classification System) codes. Seven of these occupations have had unemployment rates greater than the national rate, 6.3%. The unemployment rate has declined in 6 of the 7 categories.

There are about 3.5 million unemployed workers in occupations with unemployment rates above 6.3%, compared to 4.4 million a year ago. Many of these positions are easier to fill than those with lower unemployment rates because they do not require a college degree. On the job training or certifications are often required for some of these positions.

Having said that, it should be noted the construction industry is facing shortages in specialized areas in certain parts of the country. This is particularly true in Northern Colorado with the rapid growth of the extractive industries.

The overall downward trend in the unemployment rates is expected to continue. As a result the occupations with higher rates are expected to see lower unemployment rates in the months ahead.

unemployment rate

The Decline in Colorado’s Unemployment Rate – Good and Bad News

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest job numbers for Colorado earlier today and there were no surprises. Growth continues to be solid and the unemployment rate is trending downward.

It is great to see the overall rate of unemployment drop; however, there is a downside. Barring a recession, the rate is likely to continue to drop to the 4.0% range over the next couple of years and remain at that level for an extended period of time. We have very quickly shifted from an employer’s market to a job seekers market.

The rate of unemployment for some occupations is now below 3.0%, for example, the management and professional occupations. It is good news that business is strong; however, it is bad news because it is not possible to find enough qualified workers to produce goods or provide services.

Since all industries require managers, the shortage of people to fill management occupations crosses all industries. The shortage in some professional occupations is in Colorado’s high-tech sector. It is good news there is growth, but bad if it hurts the local economy.

Nationally, the food preparation industry is another example where there is a substantial decrease in the unemployment rate. Over the past year the rate has dropped from 8.8% to 7.1%. This means it will be more difficult for many of the state’s restaurants to find an adequate number of workers.

As the construction industry has improved, the unemployment rate in the construction and extraction occupations have fallen from 14.3% to 9.8%.

While that is good news, it is estimated that 700,000 construction workers have left the industry. In other words, there is a shortage of trained workers.

The good news that is associated with the declining unemployment rates means there will be greater competition between industries for workers.

Eventually this will result in increased wages. That is good for the workers, but may cause the price of goods and services to increase.

Such is the case in economics, it seems that every story has an upside and a downside.

Colorado is on track to add 71,000 jobs in 2014.

Colorado Remains on Track to Add at Least 71,000 Jobs in 2014

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The state remains on track to add at least 71,000 jobs this year.

The BLS released their monthly employment report for Colorado earlier today. Rather than prepare a sector-by-sector analysis, the following comments evaluate the situation from 30,000 feet.

Colorado has had the perfect winter – snow in the mountains, but not so much that people couldn’t get to there to spend their money and ski. The state has had an excellent ski season which bodes well for hospitality industry employment. Good snow also means good rafting for the summer season.

A strong ski season also bodes well for the construction industry. Nationally, hotels and resorts had delayed repairs and expansions because of the recession. Upgrades and new construction that have been on hold are likely to occur in the months ahead.

A trip to DIA shows the importance of tourism to the state. Progress is being made on the Westin hotel located at the south end of the terminal. As well there are signs the light rail will soon be a reality. That will make it easier for travelers to connect to the metro area, which will further enhance Denver’s image as a place to hold conventions and conduct business.

It also appears the Gaylord project has cleared its latest set of hurdles and will begin construction soon. Shuttle drivers are anxiously telling their passengers where the project will be located.

The fact that Denver is on the short list for the Republican National Convention speaks to the increased reputation Denver is gaining as a place to host conventions. The fact that Colorado is a blue/purple state makes it an even more attractive destination. Wouldn’t the Republicans love to unseat the Democrats at a convention held in the Democrat’s backyard?

The snow and the cold of the winter season have not stymied construction along the Front Range. The state added over 10,000 construction jobs in 2013. Job growth has continued to be strong in 2014. Moving forward, the industry may be challenged to find sufficient workers, as unemployment in the industry has decreased substantially.

The construction industry will remain strong, with most of the growth coming from private sector investment. Despite improvement in tax revenues, the public sector is still not in a position to fund construction – such as schools or institutions.

Road construction has been held back by limited tax collections. One downside to improved fuel efficiency is less fuel is being consumed. The tax rates have not increased to support maintenance and repairs to our transportation infrastructure.

Residential construction will continue to improve, but will not approach the rates of growth that occurred prior to the Great Recession. For a variety of reasons, multifamily growth will remain strong. For example, young buyers prefer to live in the metro areas vs. the suburbs and many of them have high debt levels.

Obamacare enrollment has finally come to a close. For better or worse, the program is officially moving forward and healthcare organizations have greater clarity about how they can operate. They will be challenged by thin margins and will have to constantly be on top of their operations to remain profitable.

The industry continues to evolve rapidly. For example a focus for many organizations is bringing health care to local neighborhoods through urgent care and emergency facilities. The ACA will drastically impact the way healthcare organizations deliver services.

The oil and gas industry will continue to be extremely strong in Northern Colorado. In 2013 the state produced 64 million barrels of oil and about 80% was produced in Weld County. Colorado is one of the country’s top 10 states in terms of oil reserves. There are smaller counties that have enjoyed growth in oil production because of the Niobrara oil field, i.e. the industry is benefitting many parts of the state. Finally, the natural gas industry is strong on the western slope.

The state remains on track to add at least 71,000 jobs this year.