Tag: Colorado employment

After 8 Months, 7 Sectors Show Job Gains

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Through the first 8 months of the year there are 7 sectors of the economy that have added a net total of 34,900 jobs, compared to the same period last year.

  • Tourism                                                +11,600
  • Private Education and Health Care +9,600
  • Professional and Scientific                +4,100
  • Extractive Industries                             +3,000
  • Wholesale Trade                                  +2,300
  • Employment Services                          +2,300
  • Higher Education                                  +1,900

These sectors account for 40.6% of total employment. Average wages for this mix of workers is about $43,600 per worker, compared to average annual wages for all workers of about $47,900 (calculations based on 2010 QCEW data). In other words, the average wages for the sectors that are adding jobs is less than the overall state average.

The 2011 prognosis is that each of these sectors will show job gains for the year (2011) and that average annual wages for the group will be less than the overall state average.  For a more comprehensive review of the Colorado economy visit the CBER website.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

10 Years After 9/11 – High Tech Employment Falls Off

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For the past 20+ years, Colorado’s high tech cluster has been a driver of the state economy, creating high-paying primary jobs that spawn growth in other sectors of the economy. During much of that time Colorado has been recognized as one of the top states in the country for its number of high tech workers, on a per capita basis.

There is no NAICS code that reports advanced technology employment. Rather than being called an industry, it is technically a cluster because it’s companies crosses a number of sectors. They vary from goods producers and extractive industries to service providers, such as engineers and architects. The high tech cluster has varied in size from 120,000 to 220,000 workers over the past two decades. Currently it employs about 172,000 people.

Because it is a cluster, special calculations are necessary to determine employment levels. Rather than perform these calculations, a good proxy of the presence of high tech or advanced technology, from both an employment and output perspective, is the performance of the Manufacturing; Information; and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (MIPTS) sectors.

The two recessions during the past ten years provided advanced technology companies with motivation to increase productivity through outsourcing and investments in capital. As a result employment declined precipitously, while output showed impressive gains.

In 2000, MIPTS employment was 451,100 workers. About 87,400 jobs were lost by 2010, or an annualized decline of  -2.1%. At that point, the MIPTS sectors accounted for 363,800 workers or 16.4% of total employment.

It remains to be seen what impact the sharp decline in employment will have on Colorado’s MIPTS and the high tech cluster. There are concerns that its dropoff will adversely impact the supply chain within the state as well as the base of trained workers. Can Colorado maintain its innovative edge? Time will tell.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

10 Years After 9/11 – Discounted and Marked Down

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The Retail Sector is a mixed blessing for Colorado. On one hand it is one of the larger sectors, providing jobs for a number of people. As well, retail sales taxes are source of revenue for municipalities and state government. In fact, taxes generated from retail sales are so important that some municipalities are strategically zoned so their borders are lined with retail facilities. It is their intent to prevent leakage from their area and increase sales (and taxes) from neighboring cities and counties.

The retail sector did not fare well during the Lost Decade.

In 2000, Colorado retail employment was 245,200. Ten years later, it was 235,900, or a decline of 9,400 jobs. In 2010, the Retail Sector accounted for 10.6% of total state workers.

During this same period, retail trade sales increased from $52.2 billion in 2000 to $61.1 billion in 2010. It should be noted that sales peaked at $67.3 billion in 2007 before plummeting in 2008. They bottomed out at $58.5 billion in 2009. While sales post an increase of $8.9 billion over this 10-year period, the gain is not adjusted for inflation.

The annualized rate of growth for sales is 1.6%. The annualized rate of growth for Colorado inflation was 2.0%. Not only did the sector lose employment during the Lost Decade, there was a decrease in sales adjusted for inflation.

In short, the Lost Decade has been difficult for both retailers and the government organizations that rely on sales tax revenues to support their operations.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

10 Years After 9/11 – Creative Financing Fizzles

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In early 2003 a reporter posed the question, “Looking back, what did you miss in forecasting the 2001 recession?” In hindsight, there were two signals of greater problems.

1. Colorado construction output began to decline in 2001.
2. Employment in the Colorado Financial Activities Sector moved counter to total employment during the 2001 recession.

At that time, it was difficult to understand these trends because they were not fully developed. In the months prior to 9/11, the economy had slowed, but remained strong. Very few noticed the slowdown in construction output and those who did thought it to be nothing more than a bump in the road.

By mid-decade it became more apparent that the strength of the construction industry was waning. T-Rex was winding down and the only major activity was a smaller highway project in Colorado Springs, the Comanche Power Plant in Pueblo, and a mixture of school construction additions or improvements. In addition, housing permits, and valuation began to level off.

By 2007, housing construction began to slip and by 2008 it was clear that the industry was faced with more than a “bump in the road”. Between 2007 and 2009, 1-in-6 of the private sector jobs lost were either in construction or construction-related industries.

In hindsight, more economists and bank officials should have questioned why employees were being added in the Financial Activities Sector during a downturn. When 9/11 occurred, the economy came to a grinding halt for several days. Americans were encouraged to keep spending in hopes the country could consume its way out of the recession. At the time, that seemed to be the right thing to do.

Creative financing products (HELOCS, 0% financing, interest only loans, reverse mortgages, and others) were designed to stimulate consumption. Demand for these products increased in popularity because they allowed Americans to purchase whatever they wanted. To meet that demand, financial employment expanded between 2000 and 2007.

In 2007 a series of problems began to surface, the popularity of these products dropped off, and employment in the sector reversed trend – sharply. The industry experienced a complete melt-down – collapse of large financial institutions, the bailout of major banks by national governments, bank consolidations and closures, declines in consumer wealth, failure of top businesses, volatile equity markets, declining property values, foreclosures and evictions, and much lower interest rates.

In hindsight it is now easy to see that in 2002 there were signals that greater problems lay ahead. Given the circumstances, it is also easy to see why we looked past those warnings.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

10 Years After 9/11 – Tourism Initially Hit Hard

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Over the next six weeks this blog will look back 10 years at the change in the national and state economies. In particular, it will take a simplistic look at the possible impact that 9/11 may have had on Colorado’s Lost Decade.

There are analyses that suggest Osama bin Laden inflicted extended damage on the U.S. economy. These calculations show the direct and indirect costs of fighting two wars, tracking OBL and other al Qaeda for the past 10 years, and adopting increased security measures.

Others believe the long-term financial impact of 9/11 was minimal. These viewpoints suggest the 2001 recession was a normal part of the business cycle and the self-inflicted wounds from the financial and housing crises were far greater than the impact of 9/11.

The brief comments provided in this and subsequent blogs are not intended to prove or disprove these viewpoints. Rather, the intent is to show how different sectors of the Colorado economy reacted to 9/11, the financial crises, the housing bubble, and the 2001 and 2007 recessions.  In September this blogs will be summarized and compiled at CBER.co

We’ll begin the discussion by looking at the Leisure and Hospitality sectors.

Tourism was the industry that was initially hit the hardest by 9/11, more so in states such as Nevada than Colorado. Nevertheless, the impact in Colorado was felt immediately. In 2002 there was a drop off in DIA passengers, skier visits, and park visits. This was accompanied by an obvious decline in tourism-related employment.

Sector employment remained soft through 2004. Between 2005 and 2009 the number of leisure and hospitality workers has grown at a rate similar to total state employment. Although tourism employment was hit hard in the 2007 recession, it has since recovered at a faster rate than most other sectors.

On the other hand, employment in Colorado’s air transportation industry declined over the past decade. The sharpest part of the decline coincided with 9/11. A series of industry issues (consolidation, competition, increased productivity, pricing wars, etc.) were exacerbated by the unexpected decline in business. Despite a decline in air transportation employment, the number of passengers at DIA increased from about 39 million in 2000 to more than 51 million in 2010.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Colorado Legislative Council – Momentum Building

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In late June the Colorado Legislative Council (CLC) released its quarterly update of the state economy Focus Colorado: Economic and Revenue Forecast. The report included mixed economic news – most of it good.

Nationally, there was reduced optimism compared to the CLC March forecast, with output growth revised downward from 3.2% to 2.6%. The Conference Board and Kiplinger have recorded downgrades of similar magnitude for real GDP. Other revisions include stronger employment growth and improved wage and salary projections.

The analysis of General Fund Appropriation budgets for FY 2010-11, FY 2011-12, and FY 2012-13 illustrates the fiscal challenges facing the state legislature. While funds from various sources are projected to increase, general fund appropriations will remain in the range of $7.2 to $7.3 billion for each of these periods.

On a positive note, CLC has upgraded its 2011 employment outlook from 0.7% to 1.1% or 24,400 jobs. They expect just under 40,000 jobs to be added in 2012. The forecast also points to slightly improved retail trade sales, income growth, and construction activity. On the down side slightly higher inflation is on tap.

The risks to continued growth remain significant. Consumer confidence remains low, constrained by concerns about debt, inflation, monetary policy, and weakness in the housing and construction markets. Despite these concerns, it is generally believed that these are factors that will prevent the economy from growing at a faster rate in the near term. Finally the chances of a recession are thought to be slim, less than 1-in-5.

At last, the majority of indicators are pointing to gradual improvement for the remainder of the year and solid job growth in 2012.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Metro Counties a Drag on Colorado Economy

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Colorado added 6,200 net employees during the 10-year period (2001 to 2010). This is in sharp contrast to the previous 10 years (1991 to 2000) when the state gained almost 700,000 workers.

During the go-go 90s, payrolls in the Denver MSA increased by more than 355,000 followed by gains of about 95,000 in rural Colorado. Almost 93,000 jobs were added in El Paso County (Colorado Springs MSA) and another 57,000 in Boulder County (Boulder MSA).

At the risk of being repetitious… the state added only 6,200 workers between 2001 and 2010.

During this period the Denver MSA lost 20,000 workers, the Boulder MSA shed 4,900, and Colorado Springs payrolls decreased by 3,600. Employment in the state’s top three MSAs declined by 28,500 workers. The drop-off in Denver and Boulder began in 2002 and continued throughout the decade, whereas it started in 2007 for Colorado Springs. This was around the time Intel and other high-tech and semiconductor companies left the area.

At the risk of being repetitious… rural Colorado and the smaller MSAs were the only areas to add workers during the decade. Given the weakness in Colorado’s three major metro areas, it seems why the state is struggling to add jobs at a sustained level in 2011.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Rural Employment Growth Rate Outpaces State MSAs

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After a promising start in 2000, employment in all parts of the state suffered from back-to-back recessions. This brief analysis shows that the rate of growth in the rural areas outpaced the metro areas.

Presently, the breakdown between the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and rural areas follows:

MSAs

  • 1.9 million workers.
  • 86.8% of total workers.
  • 17 counties.

Rural

  • .3 million workers.
  • 13.2% of total workers.
  • 47 counties.

Despite modest job gains after the first downturn, declines resulting from the second recession dropped statewide employment to 2001 levels.

Seasonality is more evident in rural areas because there is a small base of workers. As a result rural employment is more volatile.

Colorado employment is forecast to increase by 15,000 to 25,000 jobs this year, or in the neighborhood of 1.0%. The rate of growth for rural areas is expected to be slightly higher than in the rural areas.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Got Jobs? Colorado Economy Stalled

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Got jobs?

The Colorado Office of Labor Market Information recently released data that shows that four-month average employment for the state was 12,500 workers above the same period in 2010. The private sector posted a gain of 14,700 employees while total government employment decreased by 2,200.

Over the past four months, a group of industry sectors have increased their payrolls by 32,800 jobs (see chart below). These sectors account for 60% of total employment.

At the top of the list of gainers are tourism (+10,300) and private education  and health services (+9,900). The next three sectors are the extractive industries (+2,800), wholesale trade(+1,900), and higher education (+1,800).

Nationally, the recovery is shaping up differently than in Colorado. The leading U.S. sectors are professional and business services (PBS), tourism, health care, and manufacturing. Job growth in the Colorado PBS and manufacturing sectors seems lackluster compared to the U.S.. Companies in both sectors are part of the state advanced technology cluster, a key driver of the economy.

Meanwhile, the other 40% of the sectors has shed 20,300 jobs. Construction jobs continue to top out the list of industries shedding jobs (-8,800), followed by financial activities and the information sector, both posting losses of 3,600 jobs. Local education, PK-12, has dropped 2,200 workers while the federal government payrolls are down by 1,700. The decrease in federal employment is an anomaly. A number of temporary jobs were added in mid-2010 to complete the decennial census.

Fortunately, the movement of the state economy is different than movement of an airplane, where “stalling out” can have disastrous consequences. At the moment, a recession is unlikely; however, it is frustrating to endure a two-year recovery (jobs and output) that is moving forward at a “stalled pace.”

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Third Consecutive Month of 200,000+ Job Growth

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On Friday (5/6/11), the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the U.S. had added 244,000 jobs in April (2011), the third consecutive month for the U.S. to add at least 200,000 net jobs. Private sector jobs were added at the highest rate in 5 years.

The Professional and Business Services sector added about 51,000 new workers, followed by tourism (46,000), and health care (37,000). Manufacturing posted gains of 29,000 employees.

As expected the largest loser was government, primarily local governments. Sector employment dropped off by 24,000 workers.

The nation has regained 1.3 million jobs in the past year; however payrolls have about 7 million fewer workers than at the pre-recession peak. Despite this improvement, the recovery continues to be painful for a society that thrives off instant gratification.

The current momentum will continue if inflation remains in check, the double dip in the construction sector and housing markets is short-lived, and net job gains continue to average at least 200,000 jobs per month. It will take about 3 more years to recover all jobs at that rate of growth.

In two weeks the Colorado Office of Labor Market Information will release its preliminary employment update for April. Positive, but less than robust job gains are expected, with PBS, Tourism, Health Care, and Higher Education leading the way.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.