Colorado employment Archives - Page 3 of 10 - Colorado-based Business and Economic Research

Colorado Job Growth Increasing at a Declining Rate

July 21, 2013July 21, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

Colorado job gains remained solid in June; however, job growth is increasing at a declining rate. Average employment through June 2013 is 59,000 jobs greater than the same period last year.

If the data is evaluated on a quarterly basis, the number of jobs added leveled off for the period Q4 2012 to Q2 2013. In fact, there was a decrease between Q2 and Q1 of 2013.

Q4 2012 58,600

Q1 2013 61,800

Q2 2013 56,300.

On average, about 4,900 jobs have been added each month for the past three quarters.

For the period Q2 2012 to Q2 2013, the number of jobs added at the national level appears to have reached a plateau. Nationally, there was an increase in the job gains between Q2 and Q1 of 2013.

Q2 2012 2,158,000

Q3 2012 2,217,000

Q4 2012 2,188,000

Q1 2013 2,086,700

Q2 2013 2,177,300.

On average, about 180,500 jobs have been added each month for the past five quarters.

In both cases, the level of job growth is modest and expected to remain that way in the near term.

For additional details about the performance of the state economy, go to the cber.co website or click here.

Colorado’s Smaller Firms Pay Lower Wages

May 28, 2013May 28, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

As discussed in the blog post Most Colorado Firms have Fewer than Twenty Workers, BLS data shows that Colorado has about 171,000 private sector firms. Only 238 of those firms, or 0.1%, have 500 or more workers. There are just under 19,000 firms, or 11.0%, with 20 to 499 workers. The majority of firms have fewer than 20 workers. Almost 152,000 firms, or 89%, are in this category.

In Q3 2012, Colorado’s private sector firms paid about $23.1 billion in payroll. About $13.0 billion, or 56.4%, is paid to workers at firms with 20 to 299 employees. About $6.2 billion, or 26.8%, is paid to companies with fewer than 20 workers. Finally, total wages at the firms with 500 or more workers is 3.9 billion, or 16.8% of total wages.

In other words, about 17% of total wages are paid at 0.1% of the state’s firms (the largest). Meanwhile, about 27% of the state’s wages are paid at 89% of the firms. Higher wages are paid at firms with more employees.

Average annual wages for firms with less than 20 workers is $43,304, firms with 20 to 499 workers have average annual wages of $47,423 and firms with 500 or more workers have average annual wages of $65,048.

Clearly, large and small firms are important to the economy for different reasons.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Colorado Adds 62,600 Jobs in Q1 2013

April 22, 2013April 22, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

A review of 22 NAICS sectors shows that on average, Colorado added 62,600 jobs in Q1 compared to the same period last year. Only four of the sectors posted losses (Information 1,800; Federal Government 900; Natural Resources 600; and State (Not Higher Education) 100.

The following sectors added jobs at a faster level, Q1 2013 vs. 2012:
Accommodations and Food Services; B-to-B (Not Employment); Retail Trade; Construction; K-12 Education; Wholesale Trade; Health Care; Arts Entertainment, and Recreation; and Other Services.

The following sectors added jobs at the same level, Q1 2013 vs. 2012:
Corporate Headquarters (MCE), Local (Not Higher Education), and State (Not Higher Education).

The following sectors added jobs at a slower level, Q1 2013 vs. 2012:
Private Education; Information; Employment Services; Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities; Higher Education; Financial Activities; Federal Government; Manufacturing; Professional, Scientific, and Technical; and Natural Resources and Mining.

While it is great news that most sectors are adding jobs, it may be cause for concern that many of the state’s primary job creators have fallen in the latter category – adding jobs at a level slower than 2012.

2012 CDLE Monthly Employment Numbers Didn’t Reflect Reality

April 17, 2013April 17, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

In 2012, the monthly Colorado Department of Labor and Employment (CDLE ) employment press releases told a story about the economy that did not agree with what happened on the streets. The initial seasonally adjusted employment data depicted huge swings in employment, ranging from an unbelievable gain of 19,500 jobs in January to an equally absurd loss of 6,900 jobs in June. This is a range of 26,500 jobs.

The initial data showed losses in two months and no growth in a third. The initial data indicated that job gains only occurred in nine months.

The benchmarked revision, released in March 2013, told a much different story. There were consistent job gains in all 12 months, rather than the erratic job growth portrayed by the initial data. That range of job growth was 7,300 jobs, from a low of 1,700 jobs added in May to a peak of 9,000 jobs added in October.

The correlation coefficient between the initial data and the March benchmark data is .56. The coefficient of determination is .31. In other words, the relationship between the two sets of data is weak. It is difficult to understand why the initial data set does such a poor job projecting employment growth.

It is important for public and private leaders to have “accurate” data available to make critical business decisions relating to their industry. In this case, it was difficult for consumers to have confidence in the business climate when the story being told by state officials did not reflect what was actually happening on the street. CDLE must revisit its priorities. Publishing credible data is much more important than conducting a media blitz for the sake of gaining exposure for the agency.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

How Would You Describe Colorado’s 2010 Job Growth of 2.3%?

March 30, 2013March 30, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

The world would be a much better place if economists were not allowed to use thesauruses. Only economists use phrases and terms such as irrational exuberance, the new normal, conundrum, albeit, and exacerbated. Even worse are their descriptors for the performance of the economy.

Some economists refer to job growth of 2.3% as encouraging, on the upswing, or comparatively modest. Others might describe that same level of growth as dismal, subpar, or in line with expectations.

The state added 51,800 jobs in 2012. In the 73 years that employment data has been recorded for Colorado, 2012 was the 18th best year in terms of absolute job growth.

If you talked to a group of sixth graders, instead of an economist, they would probably smile and give such a performance an enthusiastic thumbs-up.

The 2012 job growth can also be measured in relative terms. In other words, state employment increased by 2.3%. In the 73 years that employment data has been recorded for Colorado, 2012 was the 46th best year of relative growth.

A group of sixth graders would describe that level of growth as follows, “If I did that poorly on a test I would flunk. That sucks!”

It’s your call, how would you rate the 2012 job growth in Colorado? Would you use the verbiage of an economist or the wisdom of a sixth grader?

For more information about the performance of the Colorado economy in 2012 refer to “Review of Colorado Economy – 2012“.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Decline in Employment of Information Sector Accompanied by Decline in Concentration of Workers

March 24, 2013March 24, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

One of Colorado’s more intriguing components of the state economy is the Information sector. It includes telecommunication, printed media, broadcasting, Internet service providers, and software publishers. As such many companies in this sector are part of Colorado’s advanced technology cluster.

Over the past decade technological advances and the Internet caused a decline in jobs in the media, particularly the printed media. As well consolidation occurred in telecommunications, the most recent being the acquisition of Qwest by Centurylink.

After peaking at 108,400 workers in 2000, the sector has declined steadily. In 2012, it had fallen to 69,700, about the same level as in the mid-1990s.

Over this period, technological advances and consolidation caused the sector to decline across the U.S. Unfortunately, the location quotient, or the concentration of local Information workers relative to the U.S. has dropped off at a faster rate in Colorado than the U.S.

In August 2000, Colorado’s location quotient for Information peaked at 1.84. By the end of 2012 it had fallen to 1.48.

The good news is the state still has a high location quotient of workers and the sector remains a major contributor to the Colorado Gross Domestic Product.

For additional information about the performanc of the Colorado economy refer to “Colorado Employment Review – 2012 “.

Colorado Adds 51,800 Jobs in 2012 – Top Growth in Low Paying Sectors

March 19, 2013March 19, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

Colorado received good news today (3/18) when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its benchmark revisions for 2012 employment. Overall 51,800 jobs were added, well above the 40,000 mark that the BLS reported in December 2012.

Growth was led by Accommodations and Food Services (AFS); Health Care; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (PST); B-to-B Services (Administrative and Waste Services), Employment Services, and Retail Trade.

The best news is that the PST sector added workers. This sector has many companies that are a critical part of the state’s advanced technologies cluster. Overall, this sector has many occupations that pay above the state average.

The growth of the B-to-B Services and Employment Services are indicators of an improvement in the business sector. Expansion in AFS, Retail, and Other Services sectors are an indication that consumer spending has improved. Unfortunately, each of these sectors have annual wages below the state average.

Only four sectors lost jobs. Three of the four were governmental sectors.

For additional details, see the “Review of the Colorado Economy – 2012”

Slow Gross Job Growth – a Cause of the Weak Recovery in Colorado

February 9, 2013February 9, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

Colorado prides itself on its entrepreneurial spirit, yet, it took about 4 1/2 years to recover from the 2001 recession and it will take longer to rebound from the Great Recession. In short, the primary reason the state experienced net job growth was a decline in gross job losses and weak gross job gains.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the Business Employment Dynamics data (BDM), a data set that provides gross job added because of expansion and openings and gross jobs lost because of contractions and closures. This differs from the wage and salary data series that reports only total net jobs.

The data shows that since 2000, Gross Job Gains and Gross Job Losses have been volatile and both have trended downward.

Since 1993, between 18.1% and 24.7% of the Gross Jobs Added are from openings while between 75.3% and 81.9% are from expansions. For that same period, the range of Gross Job Lost from contractions is 77.0% to 86.4% and the range for closings has been 13.6% to 23.0%. In the short-term, Gross Losses are moving downward and Gross Additions are headed upwards.

For more information go to the report, “Why Weaker Job Growth?” on cber.co. It can be found in the Special Reports Section.

CBER Colorado Economic Forecast 2013 – Growth Rate Similar in Year Ahead

January 10, 2013January 10, 2013 horvath Leave a comment

CBER recently released its forecast of the Colorado economy and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, 2013 will look a lot like 2012 and 2011.

U.S. Real GDP will be in the range of 1.9% to 2.3%
The U.S. will add 1.9 to 2.1 million workers
Colorado will account for 2.5% of U.S. jobs added
Colorado will add 45,000 to 55,000 workers.

Since the end of the recession, Colorado employment has had five false starts. Despite serious national and international headwinds, the state may finally have enough momentum to begin showing solid, sustained job growth beginning in the second half of 2013.

Strong Growth Category ( About 32% of total employment)

This category has consistently posted strong growth over the past two decades. In 2013, job growth will be 2.9% to 3.1%, slightly below the category’s annualized growth rate of 3.25% for 1990 to 2011.

Limited Growth Sectors (about 40% of total employment)

This category has consistently posted solid growth over the past two decades (Annualized rates for the sectors range between 1.1% to 2.2%.) In 2013, job growth will be 1.4% to 1.6%, slightly below the category’s annualized growth rate of 1.85% for 1990 to 2011.

Volatile Growth Sectors (28% of total employment)

This category has been inconsistent in its growth rates over the past two decades. It is expected to add jobs at a rate of 2.1% to 2.3%. This is above the category’s annualized growth rate of about 0.79% for 1990 to 2011. This variance from the average is a reflection of the category’s volatility.

Five False Starts – Will Strong Sustained Job Growth Occur in 2013?

December 23, 2012December 23, 2012 horvath Leave a comment

Over time, recoveries from recessions have mirrored the downturn, i.e. a steep recovery usually follows a sharp downturn. That was not the case with the 2001 or 2007 recession.

Nationally, the economy was too weak to support job growth, as evidenced by the four false starts in seasonally adjusted job growth.
• An average of 315,000 jobs was added for the three month period March to May 2010. This gain can be attributed to temporary Census workers.
• An average of 239,000 jobs was added for the three month period February to April 2011.
• An average of 252,000 jobs was added for the three month period December 2011 to February 2012.
• An average of 168,000 jobs was added for the three month period July 2012 to September 2012 – it is debatable whether this job growth to strong enough to be classified as a false start.

In Colorado, there have been five false starts since the end of the recession
• An average of 4,000 jobs was added for the seven month period February to July 2010 (One month showed declines). This anomaly was temporary Census workers.
• An average of 4,200 jobs was added for the four month period October 2010 to April 2011.
• An average of 4,300 jobs was added for the four month period July to October 2011.
• An average of 8,400 jobs was added for the three month period January to March 2012. This can be attributed to a large increase in construction workers.
• An average of 8,000 jobs was added for the three month period September to November 2012.

Most national forecasts project a slowdown in the economy during the first half of 2013. If that is the case, then the rally in the second half of 2012 will be wasted.