There are signs the economy is improving. The unemployment rate is trending downward, retail sales are trending upward, and manufacturing has added jobs in 2012. For the 220,000+ unemployed Coloradans and those who aren’t captured in the UI numbers, it feels like the Great Recession never ended.
In recent months, The Conference Board (TC
had demonstrated an ability to more accurately assess the economy than other groups. As a result, people took notice when they pushed the odds of another downturn up to 52% in October. A short-term historical look at TCB’s chance of recession statistics follows:
• July 17%
• August 33%
• September 45%
• October 52%
• November 32%
• December 9%
It is good news that the November and December percentages dropped off significantly. If a recession had occurred, it would have been short and shallow – barring a major shock. The economy has performed at a subpar level for so long and the recovery has been so weak that there would be little room for further deterioration in the event of another downturn.
Within the past month there has been reason to be more upbeat. Patience will continue to be a virtue as Coloradans weather the recovery.
©Copyright 2011 by CBER.