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Northern Colorado Economic Development Efforts – Thinking Big

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The Northern Colorado counties are thinking BIG!

The five-county metro area (Boulder, Broomfield, Adams, Larimer, and Weld) have very different economies, assets, and distinctive competencies. Combined, they provide the foundation that can drive a strong recovery from the Great Recession and continue to transform the state economy.

From an economic development perspective, the strengths of the region are:
• Agriculture (Weld and Adams County)
• Air transportation (DIA, Front Range, Rocky Mountain)
• Beverages (Budweiser, Lefthand Brewing, and microbreweries)
• Construction
• Corporate headquarters (Interlocken)
• Extractive industries (Niobrara)
• Federal facilities (NOAA, NIST, NCAR, and a host of facilities in Fort Collins)
• Ground Transportation (their proximity to major highways makes them a hub)
• Health care (Fitzsimons)
• Higher education facilities
• High tech clusters (they are a hub for biosciences, nanotechnology, photonics, renewable energy, software)
• Proximity to major highways (I-25, I-70, I-76)
• Tourism (Rocky Mountain National Park and Eldora Ski Area)
• Warehousing (Adams County).

By county, the big thoughts are:
• Boulder – Conoco Phillips is planning to open a renewable energy research facility in Louisville.
• Broomfield – The Regional National Archives will open in 2013, improvements are on tap for the 36 corridor beginning in 2012, talks are continuing on the Denver beltway, a high-tech business park is planned for the northern part of the county.
• Adams – Changes to the National Western Stock Show are being discussed that could include either a makeover or relocation to a different facility, a Gaylord Hotel/Theme Park at DIA is being talked about , and the Spaceport at Front Range Airport is in the planning states.
• Larimer -The ACE park has recently been renamed the Rocky Mountain Innovation Center. Hopes are to turn the old Agilent facility in Loveland into a clean-tech, aerospace, high-tech facility.
• Weld – The county has always been a focal point for energy and agriculture. Renewable energy and the Niobrara oil fields have increased its prominence in that area.

The fact that the economy has not fully recovered has not stopped the leaders in the northern part of the state from making aggressive plans for the future. Will all of these projects come to fruition? Probably not, but the fact that there are leaders with a vision will create growth for the region.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

The Perception of Colorado – From a Group of Site Selectors

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This past fall a group of site selectors presented a panel discussion to a packed house of metro area business leaders about their perception of Colorado as a place to do business. Their comments included a mixture of praise and criticism for the state and its economic development efforts. At times the panelists were in agreement and other times they provided contradicting information. The following is a summary of their comments.

Company Trends
The site selectors identified the following as trends within companies:
• Companies are investing in infrastructure, i.e. IT.
• Companies outside the U.S. are paying more attention to sustainability and green manufacturing.
• Companies are paying close attention to labor costs.
• Consumers are expecting improved customer service skills.
• Employee retention will become more important as workers are again viewed as more than a disposable asset.
• Labor availability is a key issue when companies think about relocating.
• Quality of service will become more important.
• Some companies are sharing services such as IT, HR, and accounting.
• There is greater speed to market in merger and acquisition activity.

Industry Trends
The panelists identified the following as industry trends:
• Aerospace will remain important.
• Biofuels will be volatile.
• Data centers are locating in Texas and North Carolina.
• Distribution centers are locating in the south.
• Energy is important in Texas, Arizona, and Colorado.
• Greater demand for third party call centers (chat, email, and video).
• Growth is expected in smaller life sciences such as Washington, San Diego, Indiana, and Florida.
• In 2010, foreign labor costs went up 9%; in 2011 they were up 24%. As a result there is increased on shoring or back shoring.
• Oil and gas services will remain important.
• Renewable energy is driven by incentives and some of those incentives are expected to expire in the near-term.
• Solar will be volatile.
• Waste recovery may be an industry of the future. For example in Denmark it is about 86%, while it is about 20% in the U.S.

Top States
The group identified the following states that are viewed most favorably by companies seeking to relocate:
• Arizona.
• District of Columbia.
• North Carolina.
• Oklahoma.
• South Carolina.
• Texas.
• Virginia.
Arizona and Texas have strong incentive programs. Colorado was perceived in a positive light, but it was not regarded as a top state for company relocation.

Things that are Important to Companies
Companies are attracted to a region for a variety of reasons. The reasons cited by the panelists were:
• Local economic developers have to be in touch with their local businesses. Site selectors indicated they would interview local companies to gauge the level at which state and local eco devo organizations were engaged with the community. They would not recommend companies to states where the eco devo staff did not visit local companies.
• Companies value support from public officials.
• Infrastructure.
• Job training funds are essential to many companies.
• Location – advantages derived from location differ based on the industry. For example, Colorado will unlikely be a focal point for manufacturing ocean liners.
• Manner in which states and communities educate the low income.
• Operating costs are important, but if operating costs were important then New York or Silicon Valley would never attract business.
• Some industries want suppliers in place and nearby, i.e. plug and play.
• Support of the community for eco devo efforts.

Incentives
For many companies, incentives are only part of the picture. The following ideas were discussed relating to incentives and other factors that influence relocation decisions:
• About 60% of companies who receive incentives are out of compliance within a year.
• Colorado incentives are not viewed well, they are a D+. Colorado will never win a project based on its incentives.
• Corporate or personal taxes can be an issue.
• For certain industries the cost of fuel is critical, i.e. fuel is a major operational cost.
• In most cases the states that can offset costs most effectively will win the battle for relocation.
• Incentives can get you on the long list.
• Right to work legislation is important to many companies.
• Some governors have been given discretionary funds for economic development purposes.
• Some states are swapping out incentives and tax credits.
• Some states have had to cut back on incentives because their economies have performed poorly.
• When considering relocation – costs are critical, in particular operating costs.

What Colorado Has Going for It
The site selectors identified some of the strengths they saw in their visits to the state:
• Conoco Phillips was attracted to the state because of the Colorado School of Mines.
• Creativity.
• Cultural aspects of the state such as museums, art galleries, and performing arts.
• Denver’s location is considered both an advantage and a disadvantage.
• Eco devo groups work together at a regional level.
• Governor Hickenlooper is viewed as a visionary and is recognized for his strengths in collaboration.
• Growth of natural gas for electricity production could benefit Colorado.
• Healthcare.
• NREL is a plus for renewable energy.
• Pride of living in a state with solid business activity.
• Talent.
• The workforce analysis of Vestas was key in having them come to Colorado.

Words of Caution or Advice
The site selectors also had words of caution and advice for state leaders:
• Colorado has to articulate the strength of its workforce.
• Colorado does not understand its strengths.
• Colorado is weak in job training funds.
• Denver does a poor job marketing itself – study what Austin has done.
• Don’t rely on NREL too much – it is a federal facility with obligations to the U.S. not Colorado. As well its funding is sporadic.
• Focus on talent you have within the state.
• It is necessary to pay attention to the strengths of the area; for example, Kansas lost aviation jobs.
• Public-private partnerships are the key to future development.
• Some day Fitzsimons will develop.

The discussion was lively and in many cases it was eye-opening, particularly for those who look at the state through lens other than those of a site selector.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Conference Board Points to Slower Growth in 2012

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Over the past 18 months, The Conference Board  has provided a depressing, but accurate assessment (unfortunately) of the performance of the U.S. and global economies. Overall TCB points to slower growth in the world economy in 3.2% in 2012 vs. 3.6% in 2011.

TCB divides countries into two groups – advanced and emerging. The U.S., Japan, and the E.U. 15 are the major players in the advanced group. The emerging group includes China, India, the remaining Asian countries, Latin American, Middle East, Africa, Russia and other CIS countries, and Central and Eastern Europe. The advanced economies account for 50.3% of global output and the emerging economies are responsible for the remainder, 49.7%.

In 2012 the advanced regions are expected to expand by 1.1%, whereas the emerging countries, will post a much stronger gain, 5.1%. TCB feels that parts of Europe are in a recession. The depth of that recession is likely to be determined by the magnitude of their debt crisis.

Japan is the only region that is showing an increase in the rate of output for 2012. As they recover from the tsunami and power plant tragedy that occurred last year, they will experience minimal growth of 0.7% in 2012. In 2011, their output posted a change of -0.5%.

About 22% of U.S. exports go to Europe. As well, Europe provides about half of the income earned abroad for U.S. multinational companies. A decrease in European demand could lower the rate of U.S. GDP growth and the strength of our economy. On the other hand opportunity exists for American companies exporting goods and services to the emerging economies.

Despite this dismal outlook, the U.S. posted job gains of 200,000 in December 2011. Time will tell if this increase is an anomaly, based on TCB’s dismal outlook or if we will look back to December and see it as a turnaround point for sustained U.S. growth at a higher rate.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

U.S. Employment Situation Improves

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently announced that wage and salary payrolls added 200,000 workers in December. This means that about 133,000 net jobs were added on a monthly basis in 2011. There was marked improvement as the year progressed, as about 143,000 jobs were added a month for the last 6 months of the year. Sectors adding jobs were transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and the extractive industries.

This rate of growth has been sufficient to gradually reduce the unemployment rate, which reached 8.5% in December. It is necessary to add about 225,000 jobs a month on a sustained basis to lower unemployment significantly.

There are about 13.1 million unemployed workers. Most likely that number understates the severity of the situation as it does not include discouraged workers or those who did not want to deal with the hassles of seeking unemployment.

It is important to note that 5.6 million have been without work for 27 months. (Keep in mind the total number of unemployed people in January of 2001 was 6.0 million people).

The jobless rates for men (8.0%) and women (7.9%) are similar, while teenagers come in at 23.1%. The Asian population has the lowest unemployment rate at 6.8%, followed closely by whites at 7.5%. Hispanics have a jobless rate of 11.0% and blacks register 15.8%.

The Q4 preliminary Real GDP report is scheduled to be released in the latter part of January and is expected to be in the 2.5% to 3.0% range, a marked increase from the first part of the year. The combination of improved output and the increase in the number of jobs added bodes well (but not great) for 2012.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Colorado Economic Forecast Challenges (Education, Industries, Clusters)

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Another year, another economic forecast.

Looking ahead to 2012, the state will again experience improved, but below average employment growth. Cber.co is projecting that U.S. real GDP growth will be 2.1% to 2.5% in 2012, with employment growth of 27,500 to 37,500 in Colorado. For more details about the Cber.co 2012 Economic Forecast, click here.

There are a myriad of challenges facing the Colorado and U.S. economies in 2012. Some of the key questions relating to these challenges are categorized into the following four areas:
• Demand for goods and services;
• Debt, the financial system, and politics;
• Education and workforce; and
• Industry and cluster issues.

This post raises questions about the topics of education and workforce; and industry and cluster issues. The topics of demand for goods and services; and debt, the financial system, and politics were discussed in a post entitled “Colorado Economic Forecast – Challenges (Demand and Debt).”

Education and the Workforce
• When will the higher education bubble burst?
• How will higher education improve their performance in the classroom?
• How will the state fund PK-12 education, particularly given the outcome of the Lobato education adequacy lawsuit?
• Are high school and college students learning skills that can be transferred between professions?
• What is being done to address the mismatch between the skills that companies need and the skills of job applicants?
• What is the role of the older worker in the workforce? How are companies addressing their impending retirement?
• Has Colorado lost its pool of trained workers as a result of the Lost Decade?

Industry Issues
• How has Colorado’s high tech cluster weathered the Lost Decade?
• Has Colorado lost its critical mass of manufacturers?
• Has Colorado lost the supply chain associated with the decline in its manufacturers?
• Is Colorado saturated with retail stores?
• How will second and third generation businesses transition into the future?
• How much longer can the Health Care sector continue to add jobs?

Cluster Issues
• Is homeland security a cluster that is still important to the state?
• What happened to Colorado’s nanotechnology cluster? Five years ago it was top 10 in the country. Today it is seldom mentioned?
• Several studies have pointed to the rise of Colorado’s biosciences cluster? How will this translate into growth at Fitzsimons?
• How is the software industry going to survive and thrive given the mismatch of skills in the labor pool and the needs of the companies?
• Will 2012 be the year that photonics is recognized for its contribution to the state economy?
• Are state and local leaders poised for the volatility of the renewable energy cluster?
• How will budget reductions affect Colorado’s defense and aerospace clusters?

Clearly, it is easier to point out the difficult challenges than it is to answer questions relating to them. As well, additional obstacles will be added to the list throughout the year. While there is a lot that could go wrong, it is important to keep in mind the state has an equally impressive list of assets that can be used to address the challenges of the future. Game on!

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Colorado Economic Forecast – Challenges (Demand and Debt)

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Colorado will experience below average growth for another year. Cber.co is projecting that U.S. real GDP growth will be 2.1% to 2.5% in 2012, with employment growth of 27,500 to 37,500 in Colorado. For more details about the Cber.co 2012 Economic Forecast, click here.

There are a myriad of challenges facing the Colorado and U.S. economies in 2012. Some of the key questions relating to these challenges can be grouped into the following categories:
• Demand for goods and services;
• Debt, the financial system, and politics;
• Education and workforce; and
• Industry and cluster issues.
This post raises questions about demand for goods and services; and debt, the financial system, and politics. The topics of education and workforce and industry issues will be discussed in the post dated January 16th.

Demand for Goods and Services
• Will there be sufficient demand for goods and services given the high unemployment rate and minimal wage increases?
• Will companies be able to pass on increased input costs to customers and maintain demand?
• How much longer can manufacturing shipments and output increase without adding to their workforce?
• There is an apparent lack of new firm creation. Is this caused by a lack of demand or insufficient innovation?
• What is being done to protect and encourage innovation?
• For the most part, companies have adequate access to capital. Do they know how to access it? When will there be enough demand for them to need additional capital?

Debt, the Financial System, and Politics
• Europe is a major trading partner for Colorado. How will the EU debt crisis impact the U.S. and the state?
• Worldwide there are countries other than Greece and Italy with public and private debt issues. Is anyone paying attention?
• Are our leaders paying attention to both the public and private debt crisis in the United States?
• Is the U.S. financial system sufficiently stable?
• How much uncertainty will be caused by the upcoming elections?
• Will politicians be able to instill confidence in the government after the elections?

Colorado will face these and other challenges in 2012. It will be interesting to look back a year from now and see how these issues unfolded and how state public and private leaders addressed them.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Murnane Picked to Chair Committee on the National Medal of Science

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On December 31st the Boulder Daily Camera announced that President Obama had named Margaret Murnane to fill the position of chairwoman of the National Medal of Science. Murnane is the Chair of the Board of KM Labs, a Boulder laser company she and her husband, Henry Kapteyn, started in 1994. In addition she is a JILA Fellow and a Professor of Physics and ECE at the University of Colorado.

The National Medal of Science is a program administered by the National Science Foundation. It is awarded annually to individuals who have made outstanding contributions to science and engineering. In late October Murnane was also awarded the Royal Dublin Society’s Irish Times Boyle Medal for Scientific Excellence for her work in the field of laser physics. Murnane was the first woman to receive this prestigious award.

Murnane is the second woman scientist from Colorado’s photonics cluster to be recognized by the Obama administration within the past three years. The first was Kristina Johnson, who served as the undersecretary for Energy at the DOE for about 18 months. Johnson grew up in Denver and was director of the National Science Foundation Engineering Research Center for Optoelectronics Computing Systems Center at CU. Johnson has over 40 patents and helped form multiple startups in Colorado. During her tenure at CU, she and her staff worked with the Business Advancement Center and the private sector to form the Colorado Photonics Industry Association (CPIA). For the past 13 years the group has promoted the cluster of companies which produce precision optics, lasers, optical instruments, and modeling and simulation software.

The achievements of both women have raised Colorado’s standing as a global leader in science and engineering.

 

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Governor’s Office Kicks Off Manufacturing Initiative

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In early December the Governor’s Office of Economic Development and International Trade (OEDIT) convened a Working Group to develop a State-wide Strategic Plan and Implementation Plan for the state’s manufacturing sector. The following information describing the process is either taken directly or paraphrased slightly from OEDIT communications about that effort.

The Strategic Plan will be created by chief executives from businesses across the state (Steering Committee) and the Implementation Plan will be created by government, economic development organizations, academia, non-profits and trade associations (Tactical Team).

In mid-December the Steering Committee met for 3 hours with a facilitator to create the vision, mission statement, and the major goals for the core objectives in the Colorado Blueprint. A follow up meeting may be needed in January.

The Tactical Team met for 5 hours to identify the tactics and action items necessary to achieve each of the goals identified by the Steering Committee in order to create a 1, 2 and 3 year Implementation Plan.

The work of the Steering Committee and the Tactical Team will provide a basis for retaining and growing existing Colorado companies and increasing the global competitiveness of Colorado’s industries.

The six core objectives are included below.

Business Environment refers to the government-driven factors that affect a company’s operations, including:
[1] local, state, and federal government regulations;
[2] local, state, and federal tax environment (sales and use, property tax, tax exemptions, and incentives); and
[3] any other Colorado business environment issues, such as utility or labor costs.

Business Development refers to the retention and expansion of existing Colorado operations and the recruitment and attraction of business prospects that:
[1] consist of national and global companies that are primary competitors and/or collaborators within the industry and would deepen the industry if brought to Colorado;
[2] consist of national and global companies critical to the value chain, supply chain and/or distribution chain for the industry in Colorado and would increase competitiveness if brought to Colorado; and
[3] provide access to international markets for export of products or services provided by companies within the industry.

Business Funding refers to:
[1] the lending climate between banks and companies in the industry in Colorado;
[2] activity level of private investors (angel and venture) with companies in the industry in Colorado; and
[3] access to other types of financing, including foreign direct investment.

Industry Branding refers to:
[1] the reputation that the industry in Colorado has on a national and global level—what level of “awareness in the marketplace” does the industry posses;
[2] the awareness of the industry locally and the affect on the ability of companies to attract potential employees, entrepreneurs or investors;
[3] the reputation that the industry has among the general public and policy-makers in Colorado and the associated effect on policy.

Education & Workforce refers to:
[1] the current talent pool—availability of qualified and high quality talent to grow the companies in the industry;
[2] the development of the future talent pool—availability of high quality and dynamic post secondary programs (universities, colleges, applied technical colleges, workforce centers) preparing and/or retraining students and workers to participate in the industry workforce;
[3] entrepreneurial training focused on developing new ventures within the industry.

Innovation & Technology will be addressed uniquely by all industry, but in general refers to:
[1] research and development activity within the industry within Colorado at universities, private research labs, or federal labs;
[2] activity in technology transfer and commercialization of products within the industry in Colorado and associated entrepreneurial activity;
[3] the impact of technology on increasing productivity of companies within the industry in Colorado.

Updates will be available on the OEDIT website.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Cber.co Colorado Economic Forecast 2012 – Continued Improvement

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The economy is fragile and there are a number of variables that could alter any forecast. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, 2012 will look a lot like 2011. Colorado will experience below average growth for another year. Cber.co is projecting that we will see real GDP growth of 2.1% to 2.5% in 2012, with employment growth of 27,500 to 37,500 in Colorado.  Go to Cber.co for the 2012 Colorado Economic Forecast.

The sectors of the economy can be evaluated in three groups: solid growth, limited growth, and volatile growth. A summary of these analyses for each of the groups follows.

Solid Growth Sectors (About 41% of total employment)

These sectors posted stronger growth in 2011 than any time in the past two decades. Growth will taper off slightly 2012 with the addition of at least 1,500 jobs in each of the following sectors.

Tourism
Private Education and Health Care
Professional and Scientific
Extractive Industries
Wholesale Trade
Employment Services
Higher Education

In total, these sectors will add 26,500 to 32,500 net jobs in 2012.

Limited Growth Sectors (about 26% of total employment)

In 2011 these sectors individually recorded minimal change in their number of employees. Significant change is unlikely in a slow economy.

Personal (Other) Services
Utilities
Retail Trade
Corporate Headquarters (MCE)
State (Not Higher Education)
Manufacturing
Transportation & Warehousing

Combined, these sectors will add 3,000 to 9,000 net jobs.

Volatile Growth Sectors (33% of total employment)
These sectors have either bottomed out, are near the bottom, or have turned the corner. Combined they will shed fewer jobs than in 2011.

Construction
Financial Activities
Information
Federal Government
B-to-B (Not Employment Services)
Local Government (Not K-12)
K-12 Education

Combined, there will be a change of -6,000 to 0 net jobs.

2012 Employment Outlook

Because the economy is still not on a solid foundation, it is reasonable to provide three scenarios for the summation of the above groups: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic.

Optimistic Scenario
U.S. Real GDP 2.6%+
More than 37,500 Colorado Workers or More

Most Likely Scenario
U.S. Real GDP 2.1 % to 2.5%
+ 27,500 to 37,500 Colorado Workers

Pessimistic Scenario
U.S. Real GDP  1.6% to 2.0%
Less that 27,500 Colorado Workers

If probabilities were to be assigned to each of these scenarios, they would be as follows:
Most Likely   55%
Pessimistic 25%
Optimistic 20%.
At the time the forecast for 2012 was prepared, there was slightly more downside risk.

To access the Cber.co 2012 Colorado Economic Forecast click here.
©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

ISM Manufacturing Index Points to Continued Growth

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The Institute of Supply Management produces the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a measure of sentiment among manufacturing purchasing managers. The November PMI registered 52.7, an increase from 50.8 in October. November marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion for the PMI and the manufacturing sector.

Generally speaking, a reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is expanding while a reading below 50 points to a general contraction in manufacturing. A reading above 42.5 points to expansion in the overall economy. (November is the 30th month the PMI has been above 42.5).

Looking back over the past decade, manufacturing was hit hard during the 2001 recession and did not show sustained expansion until mid-2003. Sentiment remained strong for about a year then gradually tapered off with a severe decline in mid-2008. Despite 28 months of expansion, the PMI approached 50 in October.

Manufacturing is important because it is a source of primary jobs. In Colorado it is a particularly important part of the Boulder, Larimer, and Weld Counties. Each of the three areas has different manufacturing strengths.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.