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Colorado’s Concentration of Manufacturing is Lower than the U.S.

Colorado manufacturers produce coffee (Boyer’s Coffee) and beer (Coors). These types of products are classified as nondurable goods. Durable goods products include satellites (Ball Aerospace), air safety devices (Particle Measuring Systems), or ice making machines (Ice-O-Matic).

Many manufacturers create primary jobs – that is an economic development term. Many primary job creators pay higher than average wages. In addition, they attract outside investment to our local communities. In other words, their products are exported outside the state. As well, they often have higher “multiplier” effects. In non-economic terms that means they have a local supply chain.

The concentration, or location quotient (LQ), for Colorado manufacturing was .65 in 2012 (calculated using the most recent QCEW data). In other words, Colorado has a much lower concentration of manufacturers than the U.S.

The majority of manufacturers are located in the Denver MSA; however, Northern Colorado and Boulder have the highest concentration of manufacturing employees.

Greeley and Boulder are the only MSAs with a concentration of manufacturing greater than 1.0.
Greeley and Boulder are the only MSAs with manufacturing location quotients greater than 1.0.

Colorado Remains on Track to Add at Least 71,000 Jobs in 2014

The state remains on track to add at least 71,000 jobs this year.

The BLS released their monthly employment report for Colorado earlier today. Rather than prepare a sector-by-sector analysis, the following comments evaluate the situation from 30,000 feet.

Colorado has had the perfect winter – snow in the mountains, but not so much that people couldn’t get to there to spend their money and ski. The state has had an excellent ski season which bodes well for hospitality industry employment. Good snow also means good rafting for the summer season.

A strong ski season also bodes well for the construction industry. Nationally, hotels and resorts had delayed repairs and expansions because of the recession. Upgrades and new construction that have been on hold are likely to occur in the months ahead.

A trip to DIA shows the importance of tourism to the state. Progress is being made on the Westin hotel located at the south end of the terminal. As well there are signs the light rail will soon be a reality. That will make it easier for travelers to connect to the metro area, which will further enhance Denver’s image as a place to hold conventions and conduct business.

It also appears the Gaylord project has cleared its latest set of hurdles and will begin construction soon. Shuttle drivers are anxiously telling their passengers where the project will be located.

The fact that Denver is on the short list for the Republican National Convention speaks to the increased reputation Denver is gaining as a place to host conventions. The fact that Colorado is a blue/purple state makes it an even more attractive destination. Wouldn’t the Republicans love to unseat the Democrats at a convention held in the Democrat’s backyard?

The snow and the cold of the winter season have not stymied construction along the Front Range. The state added over 10,000 construction jobs in 2013. Job growth has continued to be strong in 2014. Moving forward, the industry may be challenged to find sufficient workers, as unemployment in the industry has decreased substantially.

The construction industry will remain strong, with most of the growth coming from private sector investment. Despite improvement in tax revenues, the public sector is still not in a position to fund construction – such as schools or institutions.

Road construction has been held back by limited tax collections. One downside to improved fuel efficiency is less fuel is being consumed. The tax rates have not increased to support maintenance and repairs to our transportation infrastructure.

Residential construction will continue to improve, but will not approach the rates of growth that occurred prior to the Great Recession. For a variety of reasons, multifamily growth will remain strong. For example, young buyers prefer to live in the metro areas vs. the suburbs and many of them have high debt levels.

Obamacare enrollment has finally come to a close. For better or worse, the program is officially moving forward and healthcare organizations have greater clarity about how they can operate. They will be challenged by thin margins and will have to constantly be on top of their operations to remain profitable.

The industry continues to evolve rapidly. For example a focus for many organizations is bringing health care to local neighborhoods through urgent care and emergency facilities. The ACA will drastically impact the way healthcare organizations deliver services.

The oil and gas industry will continue to be extremely strong in Northern Colorado. In 2013 the state produced 64 million barrels of oil and about 80% was produced in Weld County. Colorado is one of the country’s top 10 states in terms of oil reserves. There are smaller counties that have enjoyed growth in oil production because of the Niobrara oil field, i.e. the industry is benefitting many parts of the state. Finally, the natural gas industry is strong on the western slope.

The state remains on track to add at least 71,000 jobs this year.

 

Colorado’s Natural Gas Production Declines in 2013

In 2013 Colorado’s Coal bed methane and natural gas production declined by 5.8%, from 1.7 billion Mcf to 1.6 billion Mcf. The 2013 level of production is similar to 2009. Twenty-six of Colorado’s 38 counties that produce gas posted declines last year.

Three counties account for 81.3% of total production: Garfield, La Plata and Weld.

In 1999 production in Garfield County was 56.9 million Mcf. It rose to 700.1 million Mcf in 2012, but dropped off to 649.3 million Mcf in 2013.

La Plata County has been a leader in production since 1999. In 2003 production peaked at 473.4 million Mcf and has declined gradually since. In 2013 it has fallen to 356.5 Mcf.

Weld County has experienced steady growth between 1999 and 2013, rising from 127.7 million Mcf to 271.8 million Mcf.  Unlike Weld and La Plata counties, Weld County showed solid growth in 2013.

The combined total of the other 35 counties has grown gradually from 1999 to 2013, from 145.1 million Mcf in 1999 to 355.3 Mcf in 2013.

Colorado has 26 counties where there is no gas production.

Natural gas production remains strong in Colorado
Despite the decline in 2013, natural gas production remains strong.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Can You Say Boom in Oil Production for Weld County?

When you mention Greeley, Colorado some people think of the smell of money (the feedlots), others think of the Greeley Stampede, and some are reminded of their days in college at the University of Northern Colorado.

More recently, Greeley has gained notoriety as the leader of the state’s boom in oil production. In 2013 Weld County accounted for 81% of production for the state.

Between 2008 and 2013 oil production has almost tripled in Weld County, increasing from 17.6 million barrels to 51.9 million barrels. For this six year period, production at the state level more than doubled, rising from 29.6 million barrels to 64.1 million barrels.

Between 1999 and 2013 the total oil production for Rio Blanco and Garfield County was unchanged at 6.8 million barrels; however, production in this area was volatile during that period. In 2013 the combined total production of these two counties was the second largest for the state.

Between 1999 and 2013 oil production in the other 33 counties declined from 6.4 million barrels to 5.3 million barrels. Within this period, these 33 counties experienced significant volatility. Production increased in 14 counties, but decreased in 19.

Colorado has 28 counties where there is no oil production.

Boom in Oil Production for Weld County
Colorado Oil Production By Top Counties. Growth led by Weld County

 

 

 

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Grand Junction and Greeley – Boom and Bust

Energy is a mixed blessing (boom and bust) to local economies in Colorado, specifically Grand Junction and Greeley.

Since 1991, the Grand Junction MSA has added jobs at an annualized rate of 2.4% compared to 2.0% for the state.

Mesa County enjoyed strong growth in the first part of the 2000s because of the oil and gas industry. Unfortunately, it also experienced a bust in 2009.

The Grand Junction MSA employment has not returned to the peak level of 2008.

 boom and bust

 

Since 1991, the Greeley MSA has added jobs at an annualized rate of 2.9% compared to 2.0% for the state.

Similar to Mesa County it experienced a boom as a result of exploration in the Niobrara gas fields.  As well, the local economy benefitted from a Vestas turbine factory. While the county experienced a downturn in conjunction with the Great Recession, Greeley MSA employment returned to the peak level of 2008 in January 2012.

Despite the boom and bust cycles, both communities have experienced a stronger rate of growth over the past two decades than the state.
boom and bust

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Denver Accounted for 70% of State’s Job Growth in 2013

In 2013, 68,100 jobs were added, an increase of 2.9% compared to 2012.  By comparison the annualized rate of the state’s job growth was 2.0% for 1990 to 2013.

Just over 70% of the jobs added were in the Denver MSA.

Between 1900 and 2013, Denver (1.8%) and Pueblo (1.3%) added jobs at annualized rates below the average for the state (2.0%). The other five MSAs added jobs at faster rates than the state:

  • Greeley, 2.9%.
  • Fort Collins, 2.6%.
  • Grand Junction, 2.4%.
  • Colorado Springs, 2.2%.
  • Boulder, 2.1%.

The Denver and Boulder MSAs had growth patterns similar to the state, while the growth patterns for the other 5 MSAs were different. For example, the Greeley and Mesa MSAs patterns were different because of oil and gas activity.

The recovery from the Great Recession was led by Fort Collins and Greeley, followed by Boulder and Denver – then Pueblo. Grand Junction and Colorado Springs have not returned to 2008 peak employment.

 

State's job growth for 2013 by MSA
Seventy percent of states’ job growth in Denver MSA.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Colorado Added 68,100 Jobs in 2013

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released the preliminary employment revisions for 2013. The data showed that Colorado added 68,100 jobs in 2013, an increase of 2.9% compared to 2012.

  • Growth was led by Construction; Accommodations and Food Services; and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (PST).
  • None of the Supersectors lost jobs in 2013.
  • Several organizations were reclassified in the NAICS system during the year. They were moved from private health care and local government sectors to state government. This created artificial or structural levels of change for these 3 sectors.

The number of jobs added in 2013 was the 11th strongest year the state in terms of absolute job growth; however, it was only the 39th best year in terms of relative job growth.

After declines in employment in 2009 and 2010, Colorado added:

  •  36,300 jobs in 2011.
  •  54,400 jobs in 2012.
  •  68,100 jobs in 2013.

Job growth is expected to continue in 2014 at a rate similar to last year.

 

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

U.S. Occupations with Low Unemployment Rates

The U.S. unemployment rate has finally dropped below 7.0%, yet there are occupations where the rate of unemployment is well below the natural rate. An unemployment rate of 4.5% to 5.5% is often referred to as the natural rate. (Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps developed the concept of the natural rate in the 1960s to describe the rate of unemployment where the economy operates most efficiently.)

The occupations with the lowest unemployment rates are Healthcare practitioners, Computer, Legal, Education, and Math. Many of the 10 occupations require a college degree. On the other hand many of the occupations that have levels of unemployment above 5.0% have minimal education requirements or they require only on-the-job training. For example, a laid off construction worker may not have skills that are transferable to being a software developer. As a result some occupations, such as construction workers, may consistently have higher unemployment rates.

On a positive note, the unemployment rate has declined in 7 of the 10 categories. Interestingly enough, the number of unemployed workers in these 10 categories has increased from about 2.0 million to 3.0 million over the past year. Most likely that is a result of increased hiring, volatility in companies, and job churn.



 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

U.S. Labor Participation Rate Continues Downward Trend

As the country has recovered from the Great Recession there has been concern about why the economy hasn’t recovered more quickly. Part of the reason is the decline in the labor participation rate .

After peaking in 2000, the labor participation rate has declined steadily. The rate is the percentage of people who are either employed or actively looking for work.

Since 2000 the labor participation rate has declined from 67.3% to 62.8% at the end of 2013 – a significant drop. While there is debate about the reason for the decrease, the primary factor is an increase in discouraged workers (a weak recovery) and a change in demographics (more baby boomers retiring).

labor participation rate trends downward
After peaking in 2000, the labor participation rate has trended downward.

 

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

Year-End Colorado County Unemployment Rates for 2013 Range from 3.2% to 12.3%

The year-end 2013 state unemployment rates were recently released and Colorado posted a not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) rate of 5.9%.

The county unemployment rates were the lowest in:

  •  Yuma 3.2%
  •  Cheyenne 3.2%
  •  Kiowa 3.3%.

The metro counties with the lowest rates were:

  • Boulder 4.4%
  • Larimer 4.8%
  • Broomfield 5.3%

The county unemployment rates weret he highest in:

  •  Costilla 12.3%
  •  Saguache 10.3%
  • Huerfano 10.2%

The metro counties with the highest rates were:

  •  Pueblo 8.6%
  •  El Paso 7.2%
  •  Mesa 6.9%

 county unemployment rate

The NSA year-end county unemployment rates  are listed below.
 

County

%

County

%
Adams County 6.5   Kit Carson County 3.8
Alamosa County 7.0   La Plata County 4.7
Arapahoe County 5.7   Lake County 5.5
Archuleta County 7.0   Larimer County 4.8
Baca County 3.5   Las Animas County 9.0
Bent County 7.5   Lincoln County 4.0
Boulder County 4.4   Logan County 4.7
Broomfield County 5.3   Mesa County 6.9
Chaffee County 5.6   Mineral County 6.8
Cheyenne County 3.2   Moffat County 5.2
Clear Creek County 5.3   Montezuma County 7.0
Conejos County 9.3   Montrose County 8.5
Costilla County 12.3   Morgan County 5.2
Crowley County 9.6   Otero County 8.0
Custer County 6.6   Ouray County 4.9
Delta County 7.3   Park County 6.0
Denver County 6.2   Phillips County 4.0
Dolores County 6.4   Pitkin County 5.8
Douglas County 4.7   Prowers County 5.0
Eagle County 5.2   Pueblo County 8.6
El Paso County 7.2   Rio Blanco County 4.7
Elbert County 4.6   Rio Grande County 8.6
Fremont County 8.1   Routt County 4.5
Garfield County 5.8   Saguache County 10.3
Gilpin County 5.4   San Juan County 6.4
Grand County 4.6   San Miguel County 5.0
Gunnison County 5.5   Sedgwick County 4.1
Hinsdale County 3.4   Summit County 4.1
Huerfano County 10.2   Teller County 6.9
Jackson County 3.6   Washington County 4.0
Jefferson County 5.4   Weld County 6.1
Kiowa County 3.3   Yuma County 3.2

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.