CDLE Data – Many Have Not Recovered from Great Recession

With great excitement the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment announced that the state’s wage and salary employment finally returned to its peak in 2008.

It took five years for the state to return to the pre-recession employment levels.

Ugh!

A closer look at the unemployment data is even more disturbing. As a result of the downturn, the number of unemployed workers increased by 123,500. To date, this number has only decreased by 51,300. In other words, the number of unemployed workers is 72,200 greater than five years ago.

Clearly, there are many in the state who have not recovered from the Great Recession and the addition of 150,000+ jobs!

For additional details about the performance of the state economy, go to the cber.co website or click here.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

2012 CDLE Monthly Employment Numbers Didn’t Reflect Reality

In 2012, the monthly Colorado Department of Labor and Employment (CDLE ) employment press releases told a story about the economy that did not agree with what happened on the streets.  The initial seasonally adjusted employment data depicted huge swings in employment, ranging from an unbelievable gain of 19,500 jobs in January to an equally absurd loss of 6,900 jobs in June.  This is a range of 26,500 jobs.

The initial data showed losses in two months and no growth in a third. The initial data indicated that job gains only occurred in nine months.

The benchmarked revision, released in March 2013, told a much different story. There were consistent job gains in all 12 months, rather than the erratic job growth portrayed by the initial data.  That range of job growth was 7,300 jobs, from a low of 1,700 jobs added in May to a peak of 9,000 jobs added in October.

The correlation coefficient between the initial data and the March benchmark data is .56. The coefficient of determination is .31. In other words, the relationship between the two sets of data is weak. It is difficult to understand why the initial data set does such a poor job projecting employment growth.

It is important for public and private leaders to have “accurate” data available to make critical business decisions relating to their industry. In this case, it was difficult for consumers to have confidence in the business climate when the story being told by state officials did not reflect what was actually happening on the street. CDLE must revisit its priorities. Publishing credible data is much more important than conducting a media blitz for the sake of gaining exposure for the agency.

©Copyright 2011 by CBER.

CDLE’s Monthly Unemployment Data Misses the Mark in 2012

Last year, did it  seem like the Colorado unemployment rate didn’t match what was happening on the streets?

For the most part, the initial data, which is used in the monthly CDLE media blitz, told a much different story from the unheralded benchmark revisions released in March. In fact, the correlation coefficient between the initial release data and the March benchmark data is .44. This means there is a relationship between the two data sets, but it is not strong.

The initial data indicated that unemployment rate was flat at 7.8% for the first quarter, had four months of increases up to 8.3%, then five months of declines.

On the other hand, the benchmarked revisions started at 8.3% and dropped in February to 8.2%. The rate stayed at that level until June, when it declined for the last 6 months of the year.  The benchmarked data ended the year at 7.5% compared to 7.6% for the initial data.

Good data is most valuable during times when the economy is the most volatile. The unemployment rate published by the Colorado Department of Labor failed to meet that critical need in 2012.


©Copyright 2011 by CBER.